It's all over but the counting, and we'll take care of that piece of business starting at 6:30 p.m. tonight on KANW 89.1 FM so join us on the air and on the stream for the latest breaking news and the in-depth election analysis you've come to expect from public radio. More details on our election coverage below, but first...

Being a Republican in New Mexico means wearing out multiple sets of worry beads every two years and having your religious faith repeatedly challenged by unanswered prayers. 2026 appears to be no different.

The early vote of 456,000 is tilting decidedly toward the Democrats, and Republicans are confessing that they are nervous about the prospect of enduring another thumping. Of the more than 456,000 New Mexicans who voted early, Democrats represented nearly 52% of the total, compared with Republicans at 31%, according to the Secretary of State. Those who cast early ballots made up about a third of the state’s more than 1.4 million registered voters.

More than 40% of registered New Mexico Democrats have already cast ballots in the 2026 general election, marking a large increase in their turnout compared with the previous midterm election in 2022.

Adding to the GOP pile of troubles are the probabilities being posted in the betting markets, adding insult to their turnout injury. Polymarket has Dem Guv nominee Deb Haaland entering Election Day as a 96 percent probable winner; it's 92 percent for 2nd Congressional District U.S. Rep. Gabe Vasquez. Try 99 percent for the rumored U.S. Senate race between Dem Senator Ben Ray Luján and Republican Larry Marker. 

If the bettors have it right—as they so often do—Vasquez will get an early bedtime tonight. It may be one of his last. On Election Eve he announced that he and his fiancée Nikki Santos are the proud parents of a new baby boy. There is zero chance they will name the newborn after the President. 

If only someone could give birth to a new format for the state GOP. They haven't won a statewide race since way back in 2014, and the prospect of another loss looms. For them, the post-Trump era—no matter what shape it takes—can't get here soon enough.

There may be a bright spot for Republican Governor nominee Gregg Hull, the former mayor of Rio Rancho. If he carries his home county of Sandoval, he would at least have one good memory from a decidedly unmemorable Republican effort that included lackluster fundraising and dropping the ball on a debate challenge with Haaland.

LOOKING FOR EXCITEMENT 

TLF and Stansbury

It's farther down the ticket that students of la política are hoping for some excitement. That would include Constitutional Amendment 4 to give annual salaries of $68,000 a year to state legislators. It could be close, declared amendment supporter and former state Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino on our KANW Election Eve broadcast Monday. Well, our favorite all-time candidate on the ballot is "Mr. Close," so we're hoping Jerry has it right. 

Kalshi bettors see the amendment failing but by only a 54% to 63% probability which keeps it in toss-up territory.

A couple of legislative races are also promising a modicum of suspense, including that premier battle between Dem Lisa Curtis and Republican Rep. Nicole Chavez, who is seeking a second term in House Disgtrcit 31 in the far ABQ NE Heights. Curtis poured $600K into the race—much of it her personal worth from her labors as a trial attorney. Chavez came in with $300K, which in a normal year would be a king's ransom, but is only enough to buy that new McLaren sports car of Lisa's that Nicole was upset about.

Reps. Melanie Stansbury and Teresa Leger Fernandez are on the ballot—again. Their contests were mostly forgettable, except for Republican Didi Okpareke, who is running against Stansbury. The TV news anchors had to practice for a full hour so they could pronounce her name correctly tonight.

But there is serious business to do in Santa Fe and Washington after this election. If the Dems take power in the House—as expected—we will be seeing and hearing more from our Dem congressional reps, with a subcommittee chairmanship or two waiting in the wings. If the Senate joins the party and goes D, Martin Heinrich could well become the chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. (Take that, Melanie.)

Win or lose, it's going to be a barrel of fun—but then, our name is not on that lonely ballot risking our dreams and hopes for approval from our peers. We're just happy to get free pizza and chicharrones and a comfortable chair to sit in as we watch another democratic election dance into the history books.

TONIGHT'S THE NIGHT

Rep. Hochman-Vigil

We had a bouncy pre-game special Monday, and tonight we go for the repeat with wall-to-wall live Election Night coverage starting at 6:30 p.m. on KANW, our election home since 1988. We really should have them change the carpet, but our guest experts are the last to be tripped up by any obstacles—including this year's election.

We welcome back ABQ Dem state Rep. Day Hochman-Vigil, a certified aviation and space law attorney. That's appropriate, as she and her fellow House Dems hope to be flying high by the end of the night with at least five competitive races on the line—and maybe a surprise or two.

She'll be joined by veteran lobbyist Sisto Abeyta—who gave up a promising radio career to join the ranks of powerhouse lobbyists at the Merry Roundhouse. Well, it pays better, for sure, but there's plenty of work for him to do tonight—as usual.

Kinsey

ABQ state Senator Moe Maestas is back. His bio says he's 58 and in the Roundhouse since 2007. 58? We'd like to say we have ties older than that, but we don't. Welcome to the elder statesmen club, Senator. We've been waiting for you.

Republican Amy Sanchez is on a return trip KANW and will do her best to keep her chin up, but even better, providing our audience with her expertise on all the ins and outs of the Republican action. When will the trend get better, Dr. Sanchez?

Out and about will be veteran journalist Jenny Kinsey of NPR's Mountain West News Bureau. She'll be stationed with the Democrats at Route 66 Casino-Hotel at Laguna Pueblo, the home pueblo of Deb Haaland. All the Dems will be there—including Haaland. If the party gets really wild, Jenny promises to close down the craps table so she can get some interviews.

Rachel Rivera from the Republican side of the aisle will be at Hotel Albuquerque delivering the latest developments for KANW and looking for good news—or something disguised as such. 

Sanchez, Maestas, Abeyta (Bralley)

The GOP is so factionalized that there are three separate parties there tonight—one sponsored by the state GOP, another by Gregg Hull, and yet another by 2nd CD candidate Greg Cunningham. Rachel will employ a golf cart to make sure she gets to each of them in time.

Rounding out our contributors will be Santa Fe attorney and legislative expert Cliff Rees and ABQ attorney David Buchholtz, the state's leading lawyer when it comes to municipal bonding and other esoteric financial matters. Cliff is all in for a pay raise for legislators. Well, that Santa Fe air can do that to a guy.

So off we go again. As the decades go by, it's like rinse and repeat, but the laundry is always different and you're never quite sure how it's going to come out. See you tonight!

THE BOTTOM LINES

AP is handling the election night numbers for all the major US networks and papers this year. The AP New Mexico page is here. . .Journalist Jenie Monet, writing in Mother Jones magazine, reports there are rumblings on the left about Deb Haaland’s comfort level in that wing of her party.

Student protest

Welcome back. Be sure to join us today for our 2026 Election Eve Special at 5 p.m on KANW 89.1 FM where you can also catch the stream.

Today is indeed Election Eve 2026, but a revolt against Sen. Martin Heinrich could also make it the start of a 2030 Democratic primary challenge from U.S. Rep. Melanie Stansbury. 

Not to get ahead of ourselves, but in a very rare move, progressive Stansbury has publicly broken with Heinrich to demand changes to his bill that would expedite the permitting of energy projects on public lands. While it contains provisions to restrain data centers, other provisions of the senator's Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs bill have driven university students into the streets in protest and drawn condemnation from the All Pueblo Council of Governors, representing the state's 19 Pueblos.

That Heinrich was sent onto his back foot was clear over the weekend when he dashed off an op-ed that maintained the bill would make clean energy cheaper and provide more jobs. He's trying to dig himself out of a very deep and threatening hole—one that could upend his long political career if his crisis management falls short. 

With Republican support, Heinrich is trying to rush the 400-page bill through the Senate November 9. Sixty votes will be needed to push it forward. House passage in the lame duck session is assured by the current Republican majority there, though that would likely change if the GOP loses control in Tuesday's election as is widely predicted. 

But it is here at home that Heinrich must focus. If he doesn't craft a compromise with the vocal and powerful critics in his own party--minus the labor unions who support the bill--it could mark the beginning of his end. From Stansbury:

As currently drafted, I am adamantly opposed to this bill - which could undermine Tribal sovereignty and consultation, protection of sacred and cultural sites, our public lands and waters, and the ability of our communities to have a say in projects that could impact them. We understand the urgency of expediting clean energy and critical infrastructure projects-but it cannot be done at the expense of our sovereign Tribal nations, the environment, or the rights of our communities.

While a speculative senatorial primary against Stansbury is a political lifetime away, it undoubtedly lurks in the minds of key players. 

A PRESSING MATTER

Heinrich & Stansbury

More pressing is Heinrich’s potential ascension to the chairmanship of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee in January—a panel vital to New Mexico's national labs and energy future. 

 If Democrats take control of the Senate, Heinrich, as ranking member of the powerful committee, is next in line for the chair. However, if the objections from Native tribes, Stansbury, and student protesters are ignored, influential and well-financed national environmental groups who also oppose the bill could play a wild-card role in his future.

The introduction of the bill—and the failure to consult tribal leadership and bring Stansbury on board—may indicate that Heinrich views his Senate future as an all-or-nothing proposition. Rumors that Heinrich allegedly raised his voice at Native leaders during a meeting over the bill only exacerbate the situation. From the Council's resolution opposing the measure:

The Pueblos were not consulted in the development of S. 5653 nor were they given the opportunity to review a draft prior to its introduction; as introduced (it) would make consultation with Tribal Nations largely discretionary and time-limited. . .these changes would pose a significant threat to our ability to protect our sacred sites. . .these changes would weaken protections for Pueblo sacred places, cultural landscapes, waters, and lands, including Mount Taylor, the Greater Chaco landscape, Bears Ears, and the Caja del Rio, much of which lie outside Pueblo reservation boundaries. . . The Council is prepared to work toward legislation the Pueblos can support;

Heinrich, who was re-elected to a six-year term in 2024, remains scarred by his 17 year battle to approve permitting for the SunZia clean energy transmission line project. He also carries political scars from his ill-fated, rapidly aborted primary challenge to progressive Deb Haaland for this year's gubernatorial nomination—following the sting of being passed over when she was selected as Secretary of the Interior under President Biden.

The outburst of opposition to his bill from his party's left flank—which has strongly supported him since he first went to Capitol Hill in 2009—has caught Heinrich off guard as he takes in tomorrow night's election returns. A senior senator in an open dispute with key elements of his own base is a rare sight in New Mexico. It is not only his political future on the line, but also the state's influence in Washington, where billions of dollars annually support the economic livelihoods of tens of thousands of New Mexicans.

BACKING HEINRICH

Reader Jim McClure is among those siding with Heinrich:

Permitting reform will streamline all infrastructure projects including green-energy projects dear to Sen. Heinrich's heart. The idea is to keep random environmental and tribal groups from shutting down major projects. Stansbury appears to stand with the environmental Luddites. We're seeing a similar move in the Albuquerque City Council, which just amended the zoning law to keep unrepresentative neighborhood groups from blocking any and all new construction. Ultimately New Mexicans will have to decide whether they want their state to have an economy or become a federally subsidized nature preserve.  

FINAL RALLIES 

The Democratic gubernatorial nominee will hold her final rally today in the far NE Heights of ABQ in battleground District 31—the last Republican-held House district in the city. Deb Haaland will be joined by other Dem heavy hitters in an effort to push Democrat and trial lawyer Lisa Curtis over the top in what is expected to be a close race with Republican incumbent Nicole Chavez.

Consultants report that in early voting Democrats outvoted Republicans in the district by about five percent; however, heavy GOP voting on Election Day could give Chavez the edge. The rally aims to drive Dem turnout, turn the district blue, and score a historic shut out of House Republicans in the state's largest city.

GOP nominee Gregg Hull will hold his final rally today where you might originally expect the Dem nominee—in downtown ABQ at the Railyards Market adjacent to the historic and heavily Democratic Barelas neighborhood.

The gubernatorial race has been marked by the absence of direct attacks by the candidates on each other after Hull announced he would not engage in negative campaigning. The slack was picked up by PACs and social media influencers.

The defining marker of the '26 race has been the collapse in fundraising by Hull alongside a historic high set by Haaland: $20 million to Hull's $2.6 million.

Oil interests, usually a reliable contributor to Republicans, backed off from Hull. During the June primary, they embraced Republican Doug Turner, who attended a fundraiser at President Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate but was soundly defeated by former Rio Rancho Mayor Hull. The lack of MAGA support for Hull was largely responsible for his dismal fundraising, according to sources throughout the Republican Party.

Still, polling has kept Haaland's lead below double digits, signaling indecision about her abilities among a considerable number of voters alongside a solid GOP base for Hull. But Haaland has a history of outperforming and a final surge could still put her in double digits tomorrow night. In 2018--when the gubernatorial seat was last open—may not MLG scored an outsized 14.4-percent win over Republican Steve Pearce, 57.2 percent to 42.8 percent.

PREDICTIONS 

Longtime consultant/analyst/attorney Greg Payne and Republican radio talker and politico are both  calling it 55-45 for Haaland. For the 2nd CD, Payne has Rep. Vasquez taking it over Republican Greg Cunningham by 8 to 10 points; Aragon has Vasquez winning by nine. Payne says nationally "the House is gone"and that wave will be fully reflected here. Vasquez won by 4 in '24.

ELECTION EVE SPECIAL

We'll hear more fun predictions as well as insightful analysis at 5 p.m. today when we convene a roundtable of expert politicos for our Election Eve Special on public radio KANW 89.1 FM, where the program will also be streamed.

ABQ Dem state Senator Moe Maestas will be joined by fellow Dem and retired Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino. Republican Amy Sanchez will be on hand to provide her party's perspective, and consultant/lobbyist Sisto Abeyta, with a foot in both camps, will round out the panel.

So join us today at 5 and tomorrow night—Election Night—at 6:30 p.m. for wall-to-wall live coverage of all the results and excitement of Campaign '26.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

Balconies at Roundhouse

This one's been a sleeper, so we are going to stick with our turnout prediction of about 715,000, similar to what we saw in the '22 gubernatorial race. 

While on the national scene the talk is of a possible Blue Wave, New Mexico has seen enough of those in recent years to win a "Best in Surfing" award.

While we are just plain old Blue now, a Democratic governor win would inch us closer to deep blue status, giving us a Democrat as governor for 12 consecutive years—a first.

That we would have a third woman in a row as governor is notable, but a yawner. The high expectations that having women controlling the governor's mansion and a majority in the state House would be the beginning of the end for our array of social ills have been quashed.

But the argument that the foundation has been laid for a reversal by those female executives (and legislators)—early childhood education funding, universal childcare, free college tuition—can't be dismissed outright. "Paciencia," they shout from the balconies of the multi-storied Roundhouse. (Patience.)

That Deb Haaland would be the first Native American governor in state history and the first female Native Governor in American history will be a welcome entry into the schoolbooks of future third graders. It furthers the immense civil rights gained here in the past century. It's something to be proud of and perhaps the chief reason Haaland could be in the winner's circle Tuesday night.

The possible approval of Constitutional Amendment #4 to provide full-time salaries to state lawmakers would push us further into the blue patch. Since statehood in 1912, New Mexicans have repeatedly rejected the proposal, but now—with progressives holding power and favoring bigger government—another historic marker could be set.

Ultimately, where the state needs to make history is at the bottom of the stack—reversing its ranking as last in the nation for quality of life, with education a glaring example. This campaign offered little inspiration on that front. So as Election Night looms, we are left with only one choice: join the weary optimists looking down from the Roundhouse balconies and call out once more, 'Paciencia, Nuevo México! Paciencia.'

BE FIERCE

"The path is clear: be fierce enough to choose it." That's the closing line of one of the final video ads for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Deb Haaland. The spot is a project of the New Mexico AFL-CIO. Haaland has been endorsed by a wide array of state labor unions and associations.

Then there are the final sit-downs with Haaland and Republican challenger Gregg Hull, conducted by the ABQ Journal's Dan Boyd. The half-hour interview with Haaland is here and the Hull interview is here.

The consensus in the polling and the political community is for a Haaland win; she has outperformed expectations in previous races. If she does that again, her high-water mark could be a ten-point victory at 55 percent. Hull would have to surpass 46 percent to pull his on surprise. That was the GOP mark set in '22.

NOT TIGHT ANYMORE 

The epic, tight gubernatorial races of the 1970s are long gone. In 2018, MLG beat Republican Steve Pearce 57–43, and in 2022, she beat her GOP challenger in a decisive 6.4 point win. In 2014, Republican Susana Martinez claimed victory with 57 percent of the vote. Contrast that with the 1974 race--the first we covered and when Dem Jerry Apodaca kept the state up until the wee morning hours as he held off Republican Joe Skeen 49.94 percent to 48.80. And in 1978 Skeen was back as the GOP nominee and losing in another squeaker to Dem Bruce King 50.55 percent to 49.45 percent. Of course, in our line of work those are dream races come true. 

LEAN D 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.

The geographic split in New Mexico’s politics is on display in the early vote. The Hispanic North, predictably, is leading the way for the Dems in terms of their early voting percentages over the Republicans.

San Miguel County leads the partisan divide with Dems casting 79 percent of the early ballots and Republicans at just 12 percent.

Taos is always a banner county for the Dems, and it’s playing true to form in the early voting that continues through Saturday. Democratic ballots total 76 percent, while the GOP dips to 10 percent.

Santa Fe County is the third highest Dem performing county in early balloting, with 74 percent going to Dems and Republicans at 10 percent.

TOP GOP COUNTIES 

For the GOP, sprawling Harding County--population only 657--is the most GOP county in the early vote, with 73 percent of the ballots for Republicans and 24 percent for the Dems.

Reliably red Lea County is second best performing for the Grand Old Party, with 68 percent of the early voting going to Republicans and 22 percent going to the Dems.

Catron, another large county geographically (6,924 square miles) but just a dot on the map population-wise (3,579) has GOP voters casting 61 percent of the early vote and Democrats 23 percent.

BIG BERNCO 

In big BernCo, initial early voting had nearly 60 percent of the ballots being cast by Dems. That has come down to 57 percent as more Republicans start to trek to the polls, making up 25 percent of the county vote, according to the latest stats from the SOS.

Not all of the Dems and R’s will stick with their party in casting their actual votes, but the great majority will, giving us a snapshot of why New Mexico has become essentially a one-party state with Dem dominance in the extreme. They control the legislature, all statewide executive offices, the state Supreme Court, and the mayoralties of ABQ, Santa Fe, and Las Cruces.

For the GOP to get back in the game it must find a way to compete in the cities which means better candidate recruitment and a pivot to a more centrist approach.  

HAALAND AND LEGISLATURE

Chavez and Curtis

Deb Haaland is apparently confident enough in the final days of the campaign to spread her wings and endorse candidates in key legislative races. Take a look:

In the premier contest in House District 31 in the far ABQ NE Heights, Haaland has endorsed Democratic trial lawyer Lisa Curtis, who is running against first-term GOP Rep. Nicole Chavez. The district still trends Republican, but race watchers there expect a close result on Election Night. Curtis has raised $409,000 in the latest reports in her effort to oust Chavez, who is the last House Republican left standing in ABQ. She is not far behind, having raised $306,000. The district’s ideological lean is 55 percent conservative. Perhaps a nail-biter Election Night when we take to the air at KANW?

In House District 36 in Doña Ana County, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee has given the nod to Democratic Rep. Nathan Small, chairman of the important House Appropriations Committee, who faces a challenge from Julia Ruiz. Despite his high profile, Small has had two close races of late—in 2022 and 2024, he faced Republican Kimberly Skaggs, defeating her by 4.2 percentage points in ’22 and 3.8 percentage points in ’24. This is a tight district because of the large number of independent voters that turn out. Small's race has drawn scrutiny over his support of Project Jupiter, which puts him at odds with other area Dem legislators. Small has raised $306,000 to $46,000 for Ruiz. 

In HD 39 in the southwest, Haaland has given her blessing to Democrat Raul Turrietta, a four-time elected Grant County Assessor who is trying to unseat Republican Rep. Luis Terrazas. This has been an energetic campaign. The district features a nearly even split between registered Democrats and registered Republicans, making it one of the key battleground state house districts. Independents are expected to vote at a 20–25 percent rate, making them key.

Back in Doña Ana, HD 53 Democratic Rep. Sarah Silva, seeking her second term, has secured Haaland's endorsement. At first, Silva was a supporter of the Project Jupiter data center, but in the face of public discontent, she switched and announced her opposition. This is one of the "swingiest seats" in the state, but Dems have held it for the past three cycles, including Silva’s win of 50.8 to 49.2 percent in ’24. House Speaker Javier Martínez is all in for Silva. She received $25,000 from his Speaker Fund and $8,700 from his individual campaign. Silva has raised a total of $192,000 in the latest campaign reports. Republicans have helped Luna, but he has raised only $72,000. The cash difference could talk loudly.

Haaland has also endorsed Rep. Charlotte Little in HD 68 in northwestern Bernalillo County. Little won re-election in ’24 by 4.4 percentage points (52.2% to 47.8%). David Adkins, well known in Republican circles, is the challenger. He has raised an ample $146,000 to her $196,000. It’s definitely a race we will watch closely when we kick off our live Election Night coverage on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.org.

OUR ELECTION COVERAGE

We're busy preparing for our traditional Election Night broadcast on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.org, marking our 38th year on public radio. We've anchored every primary and state general election since 1988—and don't feel a day older.

This year, we're also back with the pre-game show, also known as the Election Eve Special. That comes your way live at 5 p.m. Monday, November 2 with our panel of experts who will have some fun predictions. ABQ state Senator Moe Maestas (inveterate political and sports junkie) will be among those on hand.

ABQ state Rep. Day Hochman-Vigil will be with us Election Night--coverage starts at 6:30 p.m. We're calling on her expertise since the real election suspense may come down to those handful of competitive state House seats. 

We'll have more on our coverage in the upcoming days. As always, we appreciate you tuning in. And see you back here tomorrow with more from the '26 campaign trial. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com)

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The constant barrage of TV ads tells the story—the race for the 2nd Congressional District is once again attracting a flood of national dollars from political action committees and individual donors. Total spending by the PACs and the individual campaigns of Democratic U.S. Rep. Gabe Vasquez and Republican challenger Greg Cunningham is expected to top out in the $22–$25 million range. But as over-the-top as that amount may seem, it isn’t even a record.

Both the 2022 and 2024 elections for the district saw total spending eclipse $20 million. In 2022, when Vasquez faced incumbent Republican Yvette Herrell, total spending hit around $23 million. In 2024, Vasquez again faced Herrell (whom he beat in '22), and spending was again in the $23–$25 million band.

However, the high-water mark for NM-02 spending came in 2020 during the rematch between Democrat Xochitl Torres Small and Herrell—the stunning total went over $30 million between direct candidate campaigns and massive independent expenditures of over $23 million from Super PACs and national party committees.

In 2018, when Republican Steve Pearce left the seat to run for Governor, Torres Small and Herrell first faced off, with campaign spending reaching an eye-catching $14 million—notable, but not the enormous sum of today. Torres Small won 50.9% to 49.1%, turning the district blue for the first time since 2008. That razor-thin margin set the stage for their rematch two years later in 2020, when Herrell took the prize.

In those previous cycles, professional handicappers ranked the sprawling district as a "Toss-Up" seat, but this year the seat moved to "Lean Democrat." If Vasquez makes it three wins in a row, will the spending spiral finally end in the 2nd CD in 2028? Maybe, but it will take a win by either candidate of more than a couple of points for national interests to lay down their arms. 

As for the state of the race with a week to go, Polymarket bettors give Vasquez a 91 percent chance of victory. The average of the two public polls in the contest show Vasquez up an average of 3.5 percent. 

 DICHO MAN

The longest-serving member of the state House will turn 76 in January but Rep. Miguel García faces only token GOP opposition from Richard Zubia in his heavily Democratic South Valley ABQ District 14, whose neighborhoods include historic Barelas and South Broadway.

García was first elected in 1996 and has been a leading advocate for Hispanic land grants and acequia protections. In his campaign literature, he quotes the Spanish dicho:

 'Hacerle bien al ingrato es lo mismo que ofenderlo' ('To do good to the ungrateful is to turn them into enemies.'    

García’s subtle use of this dicho is a throwback to a time when political attacks required wit rather than volume. In a campaign landscape filled with loud, modern noise, it’s a clever and quiet reminder of why he’s survived in the Roundhouse for three decades."  

MORE AMENDMENT 4

A reader writes of paying state lawmakers a full-time salary:

Where are all these "qualified people" who would just love to be in the New Mexico legislature but won't run because the job does not pay a salary? Have any of them come forward to explain themselves during the heated debate over the proposed constitutional amendment #4 that would provide an inflated salary of $68,000 annually to lawmakers? I say inflated because they already receive nearly $250 each time they attend a legislative session or one of the many interim committee meetings, plus mileage expenses, an overly generous pension and plenty of free meals from your local friendly lobbyist It's curious that we're told there is this shadow group of outstanding but economically deprived individuals just champing at the bit to get their chance to go to Santa Fe, yet we hear nothing of them or from them. That's because there is no such group, and it's why a "No" vote on Amendment 4 is in order.

CRUISE CONTROL 

His campaign has been on cruise control but MAGA Republican Larry Marker tries to apply some final days heat on Dem US Sen. Ben Ray Lujan with this video:

Career politician Ben Ray Lujan voted for policies that opened our borders to fentanyl pipelines. He backed reckless spending crushing families with inflation and federal regulations over energy jobs. It's time for a senator who puts New Mexico first. I'll fight to secure our border, stop fentanyl, and protect New Mexico jobs. Your safety, your paycheck, your future. That's what I'm fighting for. I'm Larry Marker. I'm running for US Senate and I approve this message. 

For his part, Luján has the Dems looking forward to 2028 when the state will host the fourth presidential primary of the season. Some of those expected to make the run turned up at a matanza and rally at Balloon Fiesta Park sponsored by Luján, who is seeking a second term.

THE BOTTOM LINES

A link from the Legislative Council Service explaining the four constitutional amendments on the ballot went to the wrong site for a couple of hours Monday. Here is the LCS summary.

This is the Home of New Mexico politics.    

The early vote is coming in at a rapid clip with an estimated 35 percent of the expected total vote already cast via absentee and in-person voting. 

Our projected turnout is 715,000—the same number that cast ballots in the '22 mid-term election. So far over 250,000 early votes have been tallied. 

Upwards of 75 percent of the final vote is expected to be recorded before the official Election Day, November 3.  

Friday and Saturday of this week--the final days of early in-person voting--are some of the heaviest. That makes it imperative that candidates running behind or in tight races get their last-minute negative ads out to the public. And that they are doing. . . 

State Republicans came with this "Brain Buffering" meme targeting Dem Guv candidate Deb Haaland. The intelligence of the woman who would become the first Native American governor in state history has been an ongoing Republican theme, although GOP nominee Greg Hull has left it mainly to third parties to attack Haaland and her alleged deficient IQ.

The mockery of her intellectual abilities is nasty stuff for a candidate who has graduated law school, served in the U.S. Congress, and in the president's cabinet as Secretary of the Interior. It appears the public isn't taking the bait with Haaland still expected to score a relatively easy victory over Hull, although insiders confirm our earlier read on the race: insider polling shows Haaland weaker in the ABQ metro  than she'd like. That's due in part to Hull having served three terms as Rio Rancho mayor and sporting a likable disposition.

Hull blew the doors off in Sandoval County at the GOP June primary and is expected to tie or win the county against Haaland. His regional appeal has held Haaland to a solid but not overwhelming 51-37 percent lead in the metro area in Journal polling.

CLOSING PITCH

A late negative hit from Republicans over a PAC backing Haaland for taking a $250,000 donation from an energy company doing work for Project Jupiter tries to win over Democrats and independents as polling shows the data center unpopular across the board.

There are negative hits up on Hull from PACS, but Haaland has spent little of the $20 million she has raised directly attacking her foe. This week her campaign airs their final ad of the campaign, called "Fight." They say:

Greg Hull

In "Fight," Haaland commits to protecting families from federal cuts... and working across the aisle to lower costs for all New Mexicans and make critical investments in our communities and public safety.“Deb Haaland is the fighter New Mexicans need in the Governor’s Office because she is the only candidate for Governor who will stand up to Trump’s worst impulses, protecting families from federal Medicaid and SNAP cuts and actually working to lower costs for working people, not millionaires and billionaires.”

That covers all the bases: working across the aisle to appeal to the last-minute deciding independents; nationalizing the race with DC budget cuts and President Trump; hitting the public safety angle, which Dems are traditionally seen as weak on; and taking a jab at Hull's chief campaign plan—eliminating personal income taxes in four stages.

Because Hull said he would not engage in negative campaigning, did not end up debating Haaland, and only raised $2 million to Haaland's $20 million, this gubernatorial campaign is ending calmly. 

CONGRESS CONTEST 

Rep. Vasquez

GOP memes against the Dems have been packaged well but the messaging has sometimes been lacking and often a rehash of past efforts to unseat current Dem officeholders.

Greg Cunningham

For example, there is the "defund the police" accusation against Dem U.S. Rep. Gabe Vasquez from Republican challenger Greg Cunningham. Ever since Vasquez made that cavalier statement on video while serving as a Las Cruces councilor it has been campaign fodder—in 2022 and 2024 when he twice beat Republican Yvette Herrell. Why should it work this time?

The 2nd CD campaign has been odd on one front. Cunningham, a former APD detective and Marine, was often shown on his motorcycle sporting his tattoos, while Vasquez, apparently trying to defend his manhood from the machismo of Cunningham, cut a video ad showing him lifting weights and giving a threatening look to the camera.

With attacks that did not seem to fully land and overt appeals to masculinity, Vasquez versus Cunningham often seemed cartoonish. 

CURTIS VS. CHAVEZ 

Voters in ABQ House District 31 are seeing new and possibly effective last-week attacks in the contest between Dem trial attorney Lisa Curtis and GOP state Rep. Nicole Chavez, who is seeking a second term in the last remaining House district whose boundaries are within the city of ABQ.

The Our Values PAC, financed largely by oil and gas interests, comes with a harsh video hit on Curtis, whom they call a "filthy rich lawyer," and score her for what they claim is her recent purchase of a McLaren auto, priced in the $300,000 range.

For her part, Curtis has exposed Chavez's family ties to the controversial Project Jupiter data center. 

She also says Chavez—a health professional—is in the bag for corporate health interests, while Chavez retorts that Curtis fought legislative medical malpractice reform tooth and nail because she has made millions from suing doctors and hospitals.

THE BOTTOM LINES

For a few hours Thursday we had the incorrect ABQ Journal August polling numbers posted for Constitutional Amendment #4—the proposal to give state lawmakers a salary of about $68,000 a year. The correct numbers are 39 percent support, 21 percent oppose, 34 percent undecided and 6 percent saying "it depends" which means they could be supportive if specific guardrails or terms are included.

Everything you wanted to know and then some concerning the four constitutional amendments on the ballot is in this summary from the Legislative Council Service.

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