Political Roundup for November 3, 2026

Roundups

Happy Election Day!

If you haven’t already, go vote! But not before reading today’s news…

Statewide Polling:

AK-Sen: InsiderAdvanatge has a 50-50 tie after RCV.

AK: AtlasIntel has:
Sen: Peltola (D) 50-45
Gov: Kreiss-Tompkins (D) 52, Wilson (R) 34, Bronson (R) 9, Taylor (R) 4
AK-AL: Hill (I/D) 47, Begich (R) 47, Hafner (D) 6

CO-Gov: Research Co has Weiser (D) 57-41.

CO: YouGov for the University of Colorado has:
Sen: Hickenlooper (D) 57-39
Gov: Weiser (D) 57-37
SoS: Gonzalez (D) 56-38
AG: Griswold (D) 55-40
House 56-40 D
Amendment 86 (require the Independent Commission to approve mid-decade redistricting): 37-28.

FL: Research Co has:
Sen: Moody (R) 53-46
Gov: Donalds (R) 51-47

FL: Targoz has:
Sen: Moody (R) 52-43
Gov: Donalds (R) 50-43
AG: Uthmeier (R) 49-46
CFO: Ingoglia (R) 50-41
Agri: Simpson (R) 51-43.

GA: Research Co has:
Sen: Ossoff (D) 55-45
Gov: Bottoms (D) 51-49

IA: AtlasIntel has:
Sen: Turek (D) 51-46
Gov: Sand (D) 54-44
Generic House Ballot: 50-47

IA-Sen: GrayHouse has Hinson (R) 48-46.

IL: Research Co has:
Sen: Stratton (D) 56-43
Gov: Pritzker (D) 60-38

KS: AtlasIntel has:
Sen: Hamilton (D) 52-45
Gov: Holscher (D) 50-46
Generic House Ballot: 49-47

ME: AtlasIntel has:
Sen: Jackson (D) 53-44
Gov: Pingree (D) 50-42
Generic House Ballot: 53-42 D

MI-Sen: Trafalgar has El-Sayed (D) 47-46.

MI: AtlasIntel has:
Sen: El-Sayed (D) 54-46
Gov: Benson 53-45
Generic House Ballot: 53-46

MN: AtlasIntel has:
Sen: Flanagan (D) 48-46
Generic House Ballot: 50-44

NC: AtlasIntel has:
Sen: Cooper (D) 56-42
Generic House Ballot: 55-44 D

NC-Sen: East Carolina University has Cooper (D) 54-45.

NE-Sen: GrayHouse has Ricketts (R) 50-46.

NH: AtlasIntel has:
Sen: Pappas (D) 52-44
Gov: Ayotte (R) 50-44
Generic House Ballot: 51-43 D

NH: NPA has:
Sen: Pappas (D) 51-45
Gov: Ayotte (R) 52-43

NM: Research Co has:
Sen: Lujan (D) 60-40
Gov: Haaland (D) 54-46.

OH: AtlasIntel has:
Sen: Brown (D) 51-44
Gov: Acton (D) 52-44
Generic House Ballot: 51-45 D

SC-Sen: Trafalgar has:
Sen: Graham (R) 48-46
Gov: Wilson (R) 54-39

TX-Sen: AtlasIntel has Talarico (D) 51-45.

TX: Research Co has:
Sen: Talarico (D) 51-48
Gov: Abbott (R) 50-48

Senate:

FL-Sen: Teamsters President Sean O’Brien announced he voted for Sen. Ashley Moody (R).

MI-Sen: It’s not the bombshell the Haley Stevens endorsement was, but Rogers has won crossover endorsements from former Rep. Hansen Clarke (D) and Detroit councilwoman Mary Waters (D).

House:

CA-07: USC has incumbent Doris Matsui (D) leading far-left Sacramento councilwoman Mai Vang (D) 49-39 for this Newsomandered D+8 seat covering a swath of the Sacramento area.

Local:

St. Petersburg-Mayor: Charlie Crist (D) leads incumbent Ken Welch (D) 55-35 in St. Pete’s final poll.

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Political Roundup for November 2, 2026

Roundups

Editors note: Today’s Roundup was written by multiple RRH Moderators. And as a reminder, we will have our Predictions Open Thread Noon today, so please hold detailed predictions for that.

Statewide Polling:

AK-Sen: The final Alaska Survey Research poll has Peltola (D) 51-49 after RCV.

AK: NYT/Siena’s final poll has:
Sen: Peltola (D) 48-46
Gov: Kreiss-Tompkins (D) 54-46
AL: Begich (R) 52-48

AZ: Noble’s final poll has:
Gov: Hobbs (D) 51-45
AG: Mayes (D) 50-46
SoS: Fontes (D) 50-44
Super: Yee (R) 48-46

CA-01/06/22/48: USC Dornsife has the following results for the Newsomandered districts:
CA-01: McGuire (D) 54-40
CA-06: Pan (D) 51-38
CA-22: Villegas (D) 52-41
CA-48: von Wilpert (D) 48-40

CA-Gov: LATimes/Berkeley has Becerra (D) 61-34.

CT: UNH’s final poll has:
Gov: Lamont (D) 54-41
AG: Tong (D) 57-36

FL: Stetson University’s final poll has:
Moody (R) 49-45
Donalds (R) 51-45
GCB 49-46 R

FL: InsiderAdvantage has:
Donalds (R) 49-45
Moody (R) 49-43

IA: YouGov’s final poll has:
Sen: Turek (D) 50-49
Gov: Sand (D) 53-46

IA: NYT/Siena’s final poll has:
Sen: Turek (D) 48-47
Gov: Sand (D) 51-43
House Ballot: 47-43 R

KS: Emerson’s final poll has:
Sen: Hamilton (D) 50-47
Gov: Masterson (D) 53-48

KS: YouGov’s final poll has:
Sen: Hamilton (D) 50-49
Gov: Masterson (R) 50-49

KS: WaPo / Schar School has (including the following methodological note on the difficulty of reaching Republican voters):
Sen: Hamilton (D) 52-43
Gov: Holscher (D) 51-45

KS: NYT/Siena’s final poll has:
Sen: Hamilton (D) 49-44
Gov: Holscher (D) 48-47
House Ballot: 50-47 R

MA: UNH’s final poll has:
Sen: Markey (D) 53-32
Gov: Healey (D) 55-36
Question 3 (Institute CRTT): 30-59

ME: Data for Progress has:
Sen: Jackson (D) 50-45
Gov: Pingree (D) 49-37

ME: YouGov’s final poll has:
Sen: Jackson (D) 52-47
Gov: Pingree (D) 53-45

ME: NYT/Siena’s final poll has:
Sen: Jackson (D) 51-45
Gov: Pingree (D) 49-37
House Ballot: 55-42 D

ME: UNH’s final poll has:
Sen: Jackson (D) 54-45
Gov: Pingree (D) 51-40
ME-02: LePage (R) 52-47

MI: Data for Progress has:
Sen: El-Sayed (D) 50-46
Gov: Benson (D) 52-43

MI: YouGov’s final poll has:
Sen: El-Sayed (D) 51-47
Gov: Benson (D) 52-46

MI: NYT/Siena’s final poll has:
Sen: El-Sayed (D) 53-42
Gov: Benson (D) 52-39
House Ballot: 51-40 D

MI: Research Co has:
Sen: El-Sayed (D) 51-48
Gov: Benson (D) 56-43

MN: The final KSTP/SurveyUSA poll has:
Gov: Klobuchar (D) 51-39
Sen: Flanagan (D) 48-41
AG: Ellison (D) 49-41
SoS: Simon (D) 47-46
Aud: Filipovich (D) 45-39

MN: Research Co has:
Sen: Flanagan (D) 52-47
Gov: Klobuchar (D) 56-43

MN-Sen: The final InsiderAdvantage poll has Flanagan (D) 49-46.

NC-Sen: YouGov has Cooper (D) 55-44.

NE: NYT/Siena has:
Sen: Ricketts (R) 49-43
Gov: Pillen (R) 53-40
House Generic Ballot: 54-35 R

NE: YouGov’s final poll has:
Sen: 49-49 tie
Gov: Pillen (R) 50-47

NE-Sen: NPA has Ricketts (R) 48-45.

NH: UNH’s final poll has:
Sen: Pappas (D) 54-42
Gov: 48-48 tie
NH-01: Shaheen (D) 56-43
NH-02: Goodlander (D) 56-41

NV: Noble’s final poll has:
Gov: 47-47 tie
LG: Jauregui (D) 48-41
AG: Cannizzaro (D) 50-42
SoS: Aguilar (D) 51-38

NY-Gov: Research Co has Hochul (D) 55-45.

OH: InsiderAdvantage’s final poll has:
Sen: Brown (D) 49-47
Gov: Acton (D) 49-46

OH: YouGov’s final poll has:
Sen: Brown (D) 50-48
Gov: Acton (D) 52-46

OH: NYT/Siena’s final poll has:
Sen: Brown (D) 49-44
Gov: Acton (D) 49-43
House Ballot: 49-46 D

OH: Research Co has:
Sen: Brown (D) 49-48
Gov: Acton (D) 53-46

OK: The final Cross Timbers poll has:
Gov: Mazzei (R) 47-44
Sen: Hern (R) 49-30
AG: Echols (R) 50-40
Super: Franklin (R) 63-24
PSC: Boles (R) 55-33
OK-05: Bice (R) 52-44

PA-Gov: Research Co has Shapiro (D) 63-36.

RI: UNHs final poll has:
Sen: Reed (D) 63-32
Gov: Foulkes (D) 55, Block (I) 34, Guckian (R) 8
LG: Matos (D) 56-41

TX: Quantus’ final poll has:
Sen: Paxton (R) 49-48
Gov: Abbott (R) 52-46

TX: Data for Progress has:
Sen: Talarico (D) 49-45
Gov: Abbott (R) 48-47

TX: YouGov’s final poll has:
Sen: Talarico (D) 51-47
Gov: Abbott (R) 50-49

TX: NYT/Siena’s final poll has:
Sen: Talarico (D) 50-43
Gov: Hinojosa (D) 48-47
House Ballot: 47-46 R

TX: AtlasIntel has:
Sen: Talarico (D) 52-46
Gov: Hinojosa (D) 50-49

TX-Sen: Trafalgar’s final poll has a 48-48 tie.

VT: UNH’s final poll has:
Gov: Janoo (D) 51-43
LG: Gray (D) 63-34
VT-AL Balint (D) 63-34

WI-Gov: Research Co has Crowley (D) 53-47.

Senate:

AK-Sen: (Izengabe) Democrat Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer’s PAC ran TV ads in Alaska featuring “Alan from Anchorage”. So who is “Alan from Anchorage”? Well turns out he’s Alan Harris the man who literally delivered decoy Daniel J Sullivan’s declaration of candidacy form to the Alaska Division of Elections. It seems pretty clear that Mary Peltola and the Democrats were behind the “Decoy Daniel” shenanigans and it’s possible Chuck Schumer may have been involved as well.

AK-Sen: A district judge has dismissed the DoJ’s Hail-Mary lawsuit asking to block certification of a potential Peltola win due to Decoy Dan.

AK-Sen: (Izengabe) The New York Post has more details of Democrat Mary Peltola’s use of the N-word. Apparently Peltola used the racial slur as a pejorative to describe a black Army veteran who sold her tables to a 2024 charity dinner honoring nearly 4,000 black American soldiers.

AK/OH-Sen: CNN has looked into a pair of popup PACs that have spent millions boosting Gerald Heikes (R) and William Redpath (L) in an attempt to draw votes away from Sens. Dan Sullivan (R) and Jon Husted (R).

CT-Sen/2028: Sen. Chris Murphy (D) was hospitalized for a stroke over the weekend, and is fortunately expected to make a full recovery.

FL-Sen: (Izengabe) Angie Nixon (D) used campaign funds to pay her brother-in-law’s automotive shop $6,795 for “vehicle wash & road services”. The shop normally only charges a $150 flat fee for towing services. This is the same brother-in-law Nixon’s campaign paid $2,500 to for “event meals”.

MI-Sen: In case you missed the big news from yesterday, Rep. Haley Stevens (D), who narrowly lost the Senate primary to Abdul El-Sayed (D), crossed over to endorse former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) and did an event with him.

MI-Sen: (Izengabe) After rejecting ejects Haley Stevens’ calls for an apology over his antisemitic ads, Abdul El-Sayed (D) campaigned with an antisemitic Nation of Islam ‘Student Minister’ who touted Louis Farrakhan seminars praising Adolph Hitler.

MI-Sen: (Izengabe) One of the 12 people indicted in Michigan for a campaign of terror against members of the Jewish Federation of Detroit was on the payroll of Abdul El-Sayed’s Senate campaign. El Sayed’s employee threw jars of chemicals into homes of Jewish families in Detroit and painted upside down red triangles on their houses which is the symbol Hamas uses to target people for death. When asked about the arrest Abdul El-Sayed said “It’s a lot more about what you’re advocating for that gets you indicted or not indicted, rather than what you did.”

KS-Sen: In what seems like a transparent attempt to keep the issue in the news, a former patient has filed a class-action lawsuit against Sen. Roger Marshall (R), claiming he charged illegally-high interest rates.

TX-Sen: (Izengabe) James Talarico’s attorneys confirmed that an email belonging to him was part of the adult dating website Fling.com’s 2011 data breach. Talarico’s profile listed “fetish” and “group sex” as his interest on his profile.

House:

ME-02: State Sen. Joe Baldacci (D), who narrowly lost the primary to state Auditor Matt Dunlap (D), put up a statement on Facebook criticizing Dunlap for campaigning with Ro Khanna (D). Dunlap faces former Gov. Paul LePage (R) for this [] district covering the state’s interior.

NY-17: (Izengabe) Democrat Cait Conley’s campaign workers have apparently been stealing Mike Lawler (R) signs off of people’s lawns. Camera’s caught sign thieves leaving Conley’s office and then later in the same day stealing Lawler campaign signs.

Third Parties: Axios has a broader look than CNN above at the $16M spent so far from both sides boosting third parties and Indies as spoilers.

Governor:

OH-Gov: (Izengabe) Amy Acton (D) appeared to be drunk at a UAW rally. Acton was slurring her words and speaking incoherently. Acton has a history of alcohol related incidents. In 2019 Bexley, OH police were called to a domestic dispute incident at Acton’s home. Acton told police she had been drinking and taking unnamed prescription pills.

MD-Gov: (Izengabe) Gubernatorial candidate Dan Cox (R) is charging a $35 cover charge to attend his election night “victory” party.

State, Local & Other:

CT-HD 135: (Izengabe) State Rep Anne Hughes (D) charged with larceny after she allegedly stole campaign signs belonging to her Republican opponent Darrell Harris. The campaign signs were reported missing and an airtag on the sign led police straight to a property owned by Hughes.

Kissimmee, FL- Mayor: (Izengabe) On Friday Gov. Ron DeSantis suspended Kissimmee Mayor Jackie Espinosa (D). Espinosa was arrested on two felony charges tied to allegations of corruption in a COVID-19 government grant program.

VA-Elections: (Izengabe) Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) “restored” the voting rights of convicted felon Biscuit Rigsby. The only problem is Biscuit is a dog and he’s been dead for 5 years. Nevertheless Biscuit’s former owner got a letter from the Commonwealth of Virginia informing him his dead dog can vote.

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RRH Elections 2026 Final Race Rankings

Race Rankings

It is time for our final no-Tossup race Rankings for 2026! For full previews, check out our massive 9-part Preview series here:

Part 1 (Monday, October 19): Mayoral & Local Races
Part 2 (Tuesday, October 20): Lieutenant Governors, Attorneys General, & Secretaries of State
Part 3 (Wednesday, October 21): Financial & Specialized Row Offices
Part 4 (Thursday, October 22): Governors
Part 5 (Monday, October 26): House Races I & Miscellany
Part 6 (Tuesday, October 27): House Races II
Part 7 (Wednesday, October 28): House Races III
Part 8 (Thursday, October 29): House Races IV
Part 9 (Friday, October 30): Senators

Without further ado, here are our final calls:

Senate:

Prior Updates: January 2025 || March 2025 || July 2025 || November 2025 || February 2026 || April 2026 || August 2026 || September 2026 || October 2026

Safe DLikely DLeans DLeans RLikely RSafe R
23. Colorado (Hickenlooper)
26. Delaware (Coons)
20. Illinois (OPEN)
29. Massachusetts (Markey)
28. New Jersey (Booker)
27. New Mexico (Lujan)
25. Oregon (Merkley)
30. Rhode Island (Reed)
18. Virginia (Warner)
14. Georgia (Ossoff)
1. North Carolina (OPEN)
3. Alaska (Sullivan)
4. Maine (Collins)
11. New Hampshire (OPEN)
6. Michigan (OPEN)
12. Minnesota (OPEN)
2. Ohio (Husted)
5. Texas (OPEN)
7. Iowa (OPEN)
8. Kansas (Marshall)
10. Nebraska (Ricketts)
9. South Carolina (Graham)
15. Florida (Moody)
17. Louisiana (OPEN)
16. Mississippi (Hyde-Smith)
13. Montana (OPEN)
31. Alabama (OPEN)
21. Arkansas (Cotton)
24. Idaho (Little)
19. Kentucky (OPEN)
32. Oklahoma (OPEN)
22. South Dakota (Rounds)
33. Tennessee (Hagerty)
34. West Virginia (Capito)
35. Wyoming (OPEN)

Bold denotes a projected flip; these ratings mean RRH Elections is projecting a net shift in Senate Seats of D+5 in 2026.

Governor:

Prior Updates: January 2025 || May 2025 || August 2025 || October 2025 || January 2026 || April 2026 || July 2026 || September 2026 || October 2026

Safe DLikely DLeans DLeans RLikely RSafe R
27. California (OPEN)
29. Colorado (OPEN)
24. Connecticut (Lamont)
36. Hawaii (Green)
28. Illinois (Pritzker)
34. Maryland (Moore)
31. Massachusetts (Healey)
25. Pennsylvania (Shapiro)
17. Maine (OPEN)
19. Minnesota (OPEN)
14. New Mexico (OPEN)
21. New York (Hochul)
20. Rhode Island (OPEN)
2. Alaska (OPEN)
13. Arizona (Hobbs)
5. Georgia (OPEN)
1. Iowa (OPEN)
11. Michigan (OPEN)
3. Ohio (OPEN)
12. Oregon (Kotek)
7. Wisconsin (OPEN)
10. Florida (OPEN)
4. Kansas (OPEN)
6. Nevada (Lombardo)
8. Texas (Abbott)
9. Vermont (Scott)
22. Alabama (OPEN)
16. Nebraska (Pillen)
15. New Hampshire (Ayotte)
18. Oklahoma (OPEN)
30. Arkansas (Huckabee Sanders)
33. Idaho (Little)
23. South Carolina (OPEN)
32. South Dakota (Rhoden)
26. Tennessee (OPEN)
35. Wyoming (OPEN)

Bold denotes a projected flip; these ratings mean RRH Elections is projecting a net shift in Gubernatorial Seats of D+3 in 2026.

House:

Prior Updates: January 2026 || July 2026 || October 2026

Likely DLeans DLeans RLikely R
CA-6 (Kiley)
CA-13 (Gray)
CA-21 (Costa)
CA-25 (Ruiz)
CA-45 (Tran)
CA-47 (Min)
IL-13 (Budzinski)
IL-17 (Sorensen)
IN-1 (Mrvan)
MI-3 (Scholten)
MI-8 (McDonald Rivet)
MN-2 (OPEN)
NE-2 (OPEN)
NV-1 (Titus)
NV-3 (Susie Lee)
NV-4 (Horsford)
NH-1 (OPEN)
NJ-7 (Kean)
NJ-9 (Pou)
NY-4 (Gillen)
NY-19 (Riley)
NY-22 (Mannion)
OH-1 (Landsman)
OR-4 (Hoyle)
OR-5 (Bynum)
TX-28 (Cuellar)
VA-7 (Vindman)
AZ-1 (OPEN)
AZ-6 (Ciscomani)
CA-22 (Valadao)
CA-48 (OPEN)
CO-8 (G. Evans)
FL-14 (Castor)
FL-22 (VACANT)
FL-25 (Moskowitz)
IA-1 (Miller-Meeks)
IA-2 (OPEN)
IA-3 (Nunn)
MI-7 (Barrett)
MI-10 (OPEN)
MT-1 (OPEN)
NV-2 (OPEN)
NM-2 (Vasquez)
NY-3 (Suozzi)
NY-17 (Lawler)
NC-1 (Don Davis)
NC-11 (OPEN)
OH-7 (Max Miller)
OH-9 (Kaptur)
PA-1 (Fitzpatrick)
PA-7 (Mackenzie)
PA-8 (Bresnahan)
PA-10 (Perry)
TX-15 (De La Cruz)
TX-23 (VACANT)
TX-34 (V. Gonzalez)
TX-35 (OPEN)
VA-1 (Wittman)
VA-2 (Kiggans)
WA-3 (Gluesenkamp Perez)
WI-3 (Van Orden)
AL-2 (Figures)
AK-AL (Begich)
AR-2 (Hill)
AZ-2 (Crane)
CO-3 (Hurd)
CO-4 (Boebert)
CO-5 (Crank)
FL-7 (OPEN)
FL-9 (Soto)
FL-13 (Luna)
FL-27 (Salazar)
KS-2 (Schmidt)
KY-6 (OPEN)
ME-2 (OPEN)
MI-4 (Huizenga)
MN-1 (Finstad)
MO-2 (Wagner)
NE-1 (Flood)
NY-21 (OPEN)
NC-3 (Murphy)
OH-15 (Carey)
SC-1 (OPEN)
TX-24 (Van Duyne)
VA-5 (McGuire)
WA-5 (Baumgartner)
WI-1 (Steil)

AZ-5 (Lamb)
AZ-8 (Hamadeh)
FL-2 (OPEN)
FL-8 (Haridopolos)
FL-12 (Bilirakis)
FL-16 (OPEN)
FL-21 (Mast)
FL-26 (Diaz-Balart)
FL-28 (Gimenez)
GA-7 (McCormick)
IN-5 (Spartz)
MD-1 (A. Harris)
MN-8 (Stauber)
NJ-2 (Van Drew)
NY-1 (LaLota)
NY-2 (Garbarino)
NC-5 (Foxx)
NC-6 (McDowell)
NC-7 (Rouzer)
NC-9 (Hudson)
NC-13 (Knott)
OH-10 (Turner)
OK-5 (Bice)
TN-5 (OPEN)
TN-9 (OPEN)
TX-2 (OPEN)
TX-3 (Self)
TX-9 (OPEN)
TX-10 (OPEN)
VA-6 (Cline)
WI-7 (OPEN)

Safe D Pickups: CA-1 (Gallagher), CA-41 (OPEN), UT-1 (OPEN) || Safe R Pickups: LA-6 (OPEN), TX-32 (OPEN)

Bold denotes a projected flip; these ratings mean RRH Elections is projecting a net shift in House Seats of D+23 in 2026.

Intraparty House:

LeanLikelySafe
CA-4 (M. Thompson) Lean Thompson
CA-7 (Matsui) Lean Vang
CA-34 (Gomez) Lean Gonzales Torres
CA-40 (Calvert/Kim) Lean Calvert
CA-11 (OPEN) Likely Wiener
CA-14 (Wahab) Likely Wahab
CA-12 (Simon) Safe Simon
CA-29 (Rivas) Safe Rivas
CA-37 (Kamlager) Safe Kamlager

State Row Offices:

Prior Updates: December 2025 || July 2026 || October 2026

Safe DLikely DLeans DLeans RLikely RSafe R

CA-AG (Bonta)
CA-Comp (Cohen)
CA-Ins (OPEN) Leans Allen
CA-LG (OPEN)
CA-SoS (Weber)
CA-Supt* (OPEN)
CA-Treas (OPEN)
CO-SoS (OPEN)
CT-AG (Tong)
CT-Comp (Scanlon)
CT-SoS (Thomas)
CT-Treas (Russell)
DE-AG (Jennings)
DE-Aud (York)
IL-AG (Raoul)
IL-Comp (OPEN)
IL-SoS (Giannoulias)
IL-Treas (Frerichs)
MD-AG (A. Brown)
MD-Comp (Lierman)
MA-AG (Campbell)
MA-Aud (DiZoglio)
MA-SoS (Galvin)
MA-Treas (Goldberg)
NM-AG (Torrez)
NM-Aud (Maestas)
NM-Treas (Montoya)
NY-AG (James)
NY-Comp (DiNapoli)
RI-AG (OPEN)
RI-SoS (Amore)
RI-Treas (Diossa)
VT-AG (Clark)
VT-Aud (Hoffer)
VT-SoS (Copeland Hanzas)
VT-Treas (Pieciak)

CO-AG (OPEN)
CO-Treas (OPEN)
DE-Treas (OPEN)
MN-SoS (Simon)
NV-SoS (Aguilar)
NM-Lands (OPEN)
NM-SoS (OPEN)
RI-LG (Matos)

AZ-AG (Mayes)
AZ-SoS (Fontes)
AZ-Treas (OPEN)
GA-AG (OPEN)
GA-LG (OPEN)
GA-SoS (OPEN)
IN-SoS (OPEN)
MI-AG (OPEN)
MI-SoS (OPEN)
MN-AG (Ellison)
MN-Aud (OPEN)
NV-AG (OPEN)
NV-Treas (OPEN)
VT-LG (Rodgers)
WI-AG (Kaul)
WI-SoS (OPEN)

AZ-Mines (Presmyk)
AZ-Supt (OPEN)
FL-AG (Uthmeier)
FL-CFO (Ingoglia)
GA-Agri (Harper)
GA-Ins (King)
GA-Lab (Rivera Holmes)
GA-Supt (Woods)
IA-AG (Bird)
IA-Aud (OPEN)
KS-AG (Kobach)
NV-Comp (Matthews)
NV-LG (Anthony)
OH-AG (OPEN)
OH-Aud (OPEN)
OH-SoS (OPEN)
OH-Treas (OPEN)
TX-AG (OPEN)
TX-Agri (OPEN)
TX-Comp (OPEN)
TX-LG (Patrick)
WI-Treas (Leiber)

AL-Agri (OPEN)
FL-Agri (Simpson)
IN-Comp (Nieshalla)
IN-Treas (Elliott)
IA-Agri (Naig)
IA-SoS (P. Pate)
IA-Treas (Smith)
KS-Ins (OPEN)
KS-SoS (OPEN)
MO-Aud (Fitzpatrick)
NE-SoS (OPEN)
OK-Supt (OPEN)
SC-Agri (OPEN)
SC-Comp (OPEN)
SC-Supt (Weaver)
SC-Treas (Loftis)
SD-SoS (OPEN)
TX-Lands (Buckingham)

AL-AG (OPEN)
AL-Aud (Sorrell)
AL-LG (OPEN)
AL-SoS (OPEN)
AL-Treas (Boozer)
AR-AG (Griffin)
AR-Aud (Milligan)
AR-Lands (OPEN)
AR-LG (Rutledge)
AR-SoS (OPEN)
AR-Treas (Thurston)
ID-AG (Labrador)
ID-Comp (Woolf)
ID-LG (Bedke)
ID-SoS (McGrane)
ID-Supt (Critchfield)
ID-Treas (Ellsworth)
KS-Treas (S. Johnson)
NE-AG (Hilgers)
NE-Aud (Foley)
NE-Treas (Spellerberg)
ND-Agri (Goehring)
ND-AG (Wrigley)
ND-SoS (Howe)
ND-Supt* (Bachmeier)
ND-Tax (Kroshus)
OK-AG (OPEN)
OK-Aud (OPEN)
OK-LG (OPEN)
OK-Treas (OPEN)
OK-Ins (OPEN)
OK-Lab (OPEN)
SC-AG (OPEN)
SC-SoS (Hammond)
SD-AG (OPEN)
SD-Aud (OPEN)
SD-Lands (Greenfield)
SD-Treas (OPEN)
WY-Aud (Racines)
WY-SoS (Gray)
WY-Supt (OPEN)
WY-Treas (Meier)

Bold denotes a projected flip; (*) denotes a formally non-partisan race. These ratings mean RRH Elections is projecting a net shift in Row Officers of of D+4 in 2026.

Weekend Open Thread for October 30-November 1, 2026

Weekend Open Thread

Welcome to the last weekend before Election Day. Happy Halloween!

First, some Programming Notes:

First, we finished our massive 2026 General Election Preview series, covering all major races nationwide, with our Senate preview earlier today. If you missed any you can find each entry below:

Part 1 (Monday, October 19): Mayoral & Local Races
Part 2 (Tuesday, October 20): Lieutenant Governors, Attorneys General, & Secretaries of State
Part 3 (Wednesday, October 21): Financial & Specialized Row Offices
Part 4 (Thursday, October 22): Governors
Part 5 (Monday, October 26): House Races I & Miscellany
Part 6 (Tuesday, October 27): House Races II
Part 7 (Wednesday, October 28): House Races III
Part 8 (Thursday, October 29): House Races IV
Part 9 (Friday, October 30): Senators

Second, we will release our Final Race Rankings Noon Saturday.

Finally, we will have our usual dedicated prediction thread Monday, so please save detailed predictions until then.

Now onto this weekend’s questions:

  1. If you could be given the winner of one Senate race, one gubernatorial race, and one House race with which to predict the election results, which would you choose and why?
  2. Say instead you could be given the vote shares of each candidate. Which would you choose?
  3. Finally, say you could be given county- and precinct-level results. Which would you choose?
  4. Which races will you be watching early on (6 PM – 8-9 PM) to get a sense of how the night is going?
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