Keppel Limited

[Shrivathsa]

One thing interesting is that Keppel share price has been on a tear over the last month or so going from 6.6 to close to 7.8 yesterday.

I have tried going through all the news about Keppel and its announcements on SGX.

Other than a small partial divestment of a property interest in China, there does not seem to be anything significant.

The only other article was in yesterday business times about whether dbs ex ceo would become chairman.

I do have shares and am vested, but it would be nice to know why the share price is going up.

[Musicwhiz]

Dear all,

Here is Corporate Monitor's latest report on Keppel.

https://corporate-monitor.org/keppel-ltd...-illusory/

[LionFlyer]

Dear all,

Here is Corporate Monitor's latest report on Keppel.

https://corporate-monitor.org/keppel-ltd...-illusory/

Corporate Monitor have several reports on Keppel, from 2024 to 2026, latest.

Using Chatgpt, the summary/headline thesis of the reports are:

2024: “Unclear strategy”
2025: “Concerning patterns”
2026: “Fundamental doubts about value and dividends"

However, if one looks at the performance of the counter:

End-2024: ~S$6.8
End-2025: ~S$10.30
Early 2026: ~S$12

or close to ~56% over the same period.

Corporate Monitor's reports are always an interesting read. But most, if not all the reports are generally critical. It is a good balance compared to reports issued by brokers, who are, by most part neutral to positive.

[weijian]

A 100% stake would be 1034mil and based on 24bil FUM, Keppel Corp is paying 1034mil/24bil = 4.3% of FUM. So at least, Keppel hasn't bought expensive.

From Q&A, the funds will exist for 9~11years, so they are not perpetual. But if the track record is good, future funds will be bigger than previous (as from ppt slide 6). The devil will probably be in the execution like getting the team/principals integrated to Keppel as the parent. So it is clever of Keppel to go in with a 50% stake first and a mixture of equity/cash.

Keppel accelerates transformation with pivotal proposed acquisition of leading European asset manager Aermont Capital

The consideration of up to S$517 million2 for the initial 50% stake in Aermont, which can be funded through a combination of cash and treasury shares acquired through Keppel’s earlier share buyback programme, implies an attractive valuation of c.13x EV/EBITDA

Expands Keppel’s funds under management (FUM) by S$24 billion1 post-acquisition, with further upside potential from co-creating new fund products; Initial focus will be to maintain and support Aermont’s platform, and collectively harness growth opportunities through joint funds.

Media Release: https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/MREL_Kepp...eID=779494

PPT: https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Presentat...eID=779495

Q&A: https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/TRSCR_Kep...eID=779567

2 years on, It seems that Aermont is performing better than expectations!

MINUTES OF THE 58th ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING

Lim Hock Chuan further asked how returns from Keppel’s Aermont acquisition have performed thus far, relative to Keppel’s underwriting.

CEO noted Aermont has performed better than Keppel’s underwriting assumptions since Keppel acquired the first 50% two years ago. He noted that Aermont’s contributions have exceeded projections, including fee contribution of about $130–$140 million in 2025 in relation to funds under management. CEO added that Aermont has an established track record in Europe and that its investment approach has historically delivered returns across cycles, including through periods of slower growth. He noted that Aermont is in the process of raising Fund VI following Fund V of approximately €3.8 billion, and that expectations are that Fund VI will be larger.

AGM MoM: https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/GCAT_Minu...eID=887471

[weijian]

CML (Corporate Monitor Ltd) has started appearing in AGMs and in at one of those which I also attended, I have learnt some new stuff from them, iņ terms of their questioning/line of thought. I do look forward to learning from them in the future.

Are Keppel’s dividends truly unsustainable – or just misunderstood?

[SINGAPORE] The recent clash between  Keppel  : BN4 -0.09% and activist research firm Corporate Monitor highlights a vital question for investors: Are the dividends from the restructured Keppel truly sustainable? The activist report pulled no punches. It argued that Keppel’s payouts are a mirage, funded by selling off assets rather than by generating operating cash flow. Pointing to a gap between reported profits and operating cash flow, Corporate Monitor painted a picture of a heavy balance sheet masking underlying weakness. At Keppel’s recent annual general meeting, these hard questions – fielded by proxies for Corporate Monitor – also dominated the floor.

Besides recurring distributions supported by the underlying operating cash flows, the assets owned by its private funds typically see valuation uplift over the development cycle. Value realised on divestment and proceeds distributed back to Keppel contribute to its investment cash inflows. “Despite investments and capex of S$5.4 billion from 2021 to 2025, the company generated free cash inflows cumulatively over the same period of approximately S$1.7 billion,” the spokesperson said. The way Keppel sees it, to look only at cash flow from operations is hence “inadequate and misleading”.

For FY2025, Keppel proposed an ordinary dividend of S$0.34 per share, comprising a final dividend of S$0.19 per share and an interim dividend of S$0.15 per share. The special dividend is handled differently. Keppel has a set policy to pay out 10 to 15 per cent of the gross value of asset monetisation transactions completed in the financial year. For 2025, the company announced approximately S$2.9 billion in divestments and completed S$1.6 billion in transactions to unlock capital, reduce debt and fund growth. This drove a proposed special dividend of roughly S$0.13 per share. This explicit link between asset sales and special payouts removes the guesswork for investors. It provides a transparent framework for the duration of the monetisation programme.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinion...understood