Time for a deep dive.

Hi all,

The year-end is just around the corner, but my planning never stops. October and November are my strategy months - the time I map out the year ahead and think 90 days out so January hits at full speed. That said, I'm preparing to storm 2026 stronger than ever!

If I'm already in 2026, why should my clients, subscribers and followers wait until January for market reports? Let's get a jump start, seeing the market through the same lens I use for my own planning. Advanced insights, county-by-county analysis, and custom trends will give us all a leg up on the year ahead.

I dig deep into the numbers because I see no other way to expertly advise my buyer and seller clients. Over the years, the OneKey multiple listing service has taught me to trust only verified data- and that's exactly where I start - with my own. Every insight is drawn from careful analysis. For example, if a client is entering the market in a saturated price point, I ant to know that before market entry, so I can craft a strategy that positions them for a swift path to contract. Numbers reveal a story and strategy turns that story into results.

The numbers and percentages will shift as we close out December as December is generally one of the highest closing months of the year in our area (read: it's not too late to sell in 2025!,) but this should share a solid pulse on how we're looking. While, according to Redfin, home sales nationwide plummeted to 30 year lows in 2024, it was one of my best years yet. 2025 told a different story. It pushed me to level up: coaching, systems, processes, finances, every part of my business got a hard look and a reset. It was a pullback year - intentional and necessary.

I want my children to have choices I didn't - and to see what balance and consistency can look like when built with intention. With that in mind, scaling is on the horizon, but not at the expense of the service my clients expect and deserve. Lately, I've found myself softening to AI - not to take the place of my craft as that's something I take pride in, but for integrating it into the behind the scenes systems that keep my business running.

The goal is to streamline the time-consuming, repetitive tasks so I can focus more on strategy, creativity, connection and overall balance. My friends would surely attest - I'm not the best in the balance department. I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on AI and how you see it shaping your own world. Simplify to scale is a mantra for 2026. While AI may take the place of some jobs, I think the bigger threat is not finding ways for it to support growth.

The Brick began over five years ago at the encouragement of my clients. Before that, I shared an informal, text-only newsletter via email. In February, 2020, it was formally named (in honor of the brick industry tied to the early days of construction in the Hudson Valley,) given a logo that a client, Jamie, was so helpful with, and launched. The first issue featured an interview with Tom Mulroy, developer of the Bellefield project in Hyde Park. Just a month later, the world turned upside down, shifting timelines in his plan, but the underlying vision largely remains as discussed in that interview. See the article.

Looking back at these early issues is fascinating. They captured hyper-local, regional and national insights, facts, stats and perspective on the real estate market during an unprecedented moment in history. An ongoing diary of sorts. Myself for expert market condition insight, and often my properties, have been featured in well over 30 articles in recent years. Looking at a snapshot of the articles shows the historic story we pressed through. My website is being redesigned this winter, but you can see a portion of the articles here in the press section.

Today, the market feels more measured. Those "final and best" moments still occur, but they're exceptions rather than the norm - smaller in number and less likely to take big flights off asking price, except in Westchester. Westchester continues to march to the beat of its own drum. Putnam County is feeling its share of heat, too. As affordability slips, buyers historically move north, and that trend continues to play out. Putnam, now up over 7% in sales and 8% in median prices, leads the five counties in growth in my custom analysis. Five counties under the scope: Dutchess, Orange, Putnam, Ulster and Westchester.

I'm unpacking the market in these targeted counties with custom data and trend comparisons that tell a bigger story about where we stand and where we're headed next. My new assistant, Rya, translated my real estate nerd data into pretty images for you all. Thanks, Rya!

On tap:

• 2025 Market Overview
• Current Market Conditions - Five County Snapshot
• 2025 and 2026
• 25 Days to Fully Executed X2
• Sandi Stats
• 50 Year Mortgages - Smoke and Mirrors?
• Lux and the Press
• Do you see what I see?
• Five year, five county roundup
• Expired Listings
• Homebuyer Workshop - Habitat for Humanity

Let's dig in!

2025 Market Overview: A Year of Mixed Signals

The Hudson Valley continues to show resilience, though 2025 was a mixed bag in price points and pockets locally, regionally and nationally. Across the country, there are markets that have leaned into clear buyers market conditions with Texas, Florida and Georgia topping that list.

Of the five counties analyzed here, all are still in overall seller's market conditions with the exception of Ulster County, which is now an overall balanced market. Westchester, Putnam and Ulster County have all increased in sales with Dutchess and Orange realizing a decrease October 31, 2024 vs. October 31, 2025 YOY.

On the seller side, 2025 seemed most pronounced in seller challenges. Some sellers seemed clinging to 2021 - declaring that they "needed to make..." rather than aligning with market value. I walked away from a nearly $3M listing (still sitting on the market) among others when that stance did not align with market reality.

One seller was so blatant about it that they put their home on the market for 17% higher than their prior year purchase. It looked the same in pictures. When I asked the listing agent if anything had been done to the house since purchase. "Nope." We are no longer in double digit growth space. Needless to say, that property has been sitting on the market for months. This move is generally serving up a pass among buyers.

Back in 2021, sellers generally were perfectly content, if not excited, with "Y," yet often buyer demand delivered the higher "X". Even at the absolute height of frenzy, hundreds to thousands of listings expired in every county. While the pandemic may have shielded some from inaccurate pricing and/or lousy marketing, it did not shield entirely. However, as time has gone by it seems an increasing amount of sellers have been conditioned to have higher expectations than realistic from the market.

Fast forward to 2025. Buyers don't care what a seller "has to make." They care about market value. Hopefully we can all get on the same train in 2026. This year, I saw an example of how pricing strategy can make or break momentum. A property entered the market at the high end of range. Despite my usual guidance to list more strategically, the seller chose to test the top. I supported their direction and we did receive an over-asking offer. These buyers were essentially competing against themselves as they were solo at the table, but they needed to move out of their house by a specific date with this house working perfectly so they threw extra funds into the transaction.

Other buyers had already signaled the price was too high. Instead of moving forward, the seller declined, sharing "not enough." My jaw dropped as we temporarily pulled the listing from the market. Against counsel, they invested more into the home, then returned to the market at a noticeably higher price. Ultimately, the property did not sell and since that time, the county and area the home is located has adjusted down a bit in value. They lost an over asking buyer in a prime window. It was a reminder that pricing to the market matters more than ever. Even well-presented homes can stall when the value perception doesn't align with reality.

Buyer competiton remains steady for well-presented, solidly priced and effectively marketed homes, particularly below $750,000. Move-in-ready properties continue to be the jewel of the market. Historic homes thoughtfully restored are also still in high demand. Stripping them of their charm for a quick flip - not so much. While still in demand, pools are back to having more of a mix in desirability with certain buyers coming back to not wanting to have to maintain the pool or worry about potential liability issues.

With the exception of Westchester County, prices across the Hudson Valley have mostly stabilized. Median single-family home prices are up in the 5.5% range for the past 12 months across four of the five counties, per OneKey MLS and Ulster/Columbia MLS, with the exception of Putnam, which increased over 8% in median sales price. The data overall suggests a region-wide adjustment toward a more sustainable, balanced market in the days ahead, which is healthy. This discreetly started in the backend of 2022.

I think we can all agree that we're dealing with some real wild cards right now. Unless there's measurable change, uncertainty and affordability challenges are expected to linger well into 2026 (likely at the least), holding some buyers from making moves. How many will likely depend on the economic and political climate. Roughly 70% of mortgaged homeowners are still enjoying rates below 5% according to Redfin, contributing to ongoing gridlock that has defined much of this cycle.

Different lawyers, different municipalities, but both were fully executed in exactly 25 days. I don't think I've ever had that happen with listings on the market at the same time. While days on market are increasing overall, this hasn't been the case for my clients. 32 Reservoir Drive in Millbrook just closed over asking after only 52 days from first day on market to closing. I'm also expecting 160 Starbarrack Road in Red Hook to schedule closing this week, which should land it in even less time to close than Reservoir. See both listings here.

In 2024, the historic busiest month of the year for closings, July, was only 4.6% higher in closed sales than December. If the timing works for you and your family, this could be a very good time to get in and out of the market. There are buyers chomping at the bit that were hoping to purchase in 2025 or at least early in 2026. Here's a quick video on it. My clients generally see contracts within a few weeks so it's still possible!

Shameless plug...my clients properties consistently sell 60% faster and enjoy higher returns than the county average. I attribute this to strategic pricing guidance, highly effective positioning and marketing and an expansive local, regional (including NYC), national and international network of agents and buyers. Here's the latest...

50 Year Mortgages - Smoke and Mirrors?

There were some appearances of 40 year mortgages back in the 1970s-1980s during high interest rate eras - they never made mainstream. Then in the 2003-2007 space they returned with certain ones having a "balloon" after the 30 year mark, which was a train wreck for those who held onto them into lower income producing years (retirement, for example). Now they are the talk again so let's unpack it.

I spoke with multiple banks and mortgage brokers about this latest potential offering presented as being an aid to affordability. Cutting to the chase, not one had the warm and fuzzies over it. The below example was shared by Jim Gallagher with Fairway Mortgage Services along with his perspective: "I can't imagine any of my clients would have benefitted from a 50 year mortgage."

The first thing to consider is something that does not appear to have been addressed as yet: Debt to Income Ratio, or "DTI". There does not appear to be a cap set for this in these preliminary discussions. There is a high likelihood the DTI would knock a notable amount of buyers out of the ring for a 50 year mortgage option. Let's assume DTI isn't an issue for a borrower and play it out...

$500,000 Loan

20% down (no PMI required)

780 credit score

The interest rate will most likely be higher for the 50 year than the 30 year - longer duration = higher risk = high interest rate. For purposes of this example:

6% interest rate for 30 year - monthly payment $2,998

6.5% interest rate for 50 year - monthly payment:$2,819

Savings with a 50 year: $179.00 per month. Is that really enough to address affordability and is there really a savings, anyway, when you consider:

Here's the kicker:

According to the U.S. Census Bureau and housing industry data, the average U.S. homeowner moves about once every 13 years.

For purposes of this example, let's say the homeowner is moving after 10 years:

30 year: Balance: $418,000 ($82,000 in principal)

50 year: Balance: $481,000 ($19,000 in principal)

Is this truly an offering that could help aid affordability or is it just kicking the can down the road? What do you think?

Lux and The Press


A recent New York Post article noted the higher-end segments in the Hudson Valley remain buoyed from New York City and New Jersey buyers. The article further noted upstate New York is experiencing its "first" true ultra luxury real estate boom with a shift away from the Hamptons. IMHO, the article did not seem in alignment with what we have and are experiencing in the luxury space.

The only county still experiencing sellers market conditions above $1,000,000 is Westchester. Dutchess, Orange, Putnam and Ulster counties are all currently in buyers market conditions in the $1,000,000+ range. Luxury and ultra luxury gained momentum beginning in 2020. In 2020, the only sales above $10,000,000 out of all five counties were in Dutchess County. One in Red Hook (Rhinebeck PO) and one in Millbrook. The listing in Red Hook had been on the market for many years. Merely one month after shutdown, in April, 2020, it had a cash close for $1,500,000 over asking at $16,500,000. The second, another cash close only a few months later in Millbrook, closed $300,000 over asking for $10,250,000. I would say Dutchess County started its flight with ultra lux in 2020. See both listings.

The "$10,000,000+ Club"

2021 See the four listings. All Westchester

2022 Here are the 2022 sales. Two in Dutchess. Three in Westchester

2023, it was back to all Westchester with only one selling over asking. 2

2024 An even split with two in Westchester and two in Dutchess. The Westchester listings sold under ask. The Dutchess listings sold at ask and above ask. Here are those listings.

So far in 2025, three properties above $10,000,000 have sold in Westchester - all under asking. Here they are. With only seven sales total out of the five counties throughout the five years prior to the pandemic (1/1/15-1/1/20) only in Westchester, it does seem the ultra lux space gained momentum starting in 2020.

Perhaps the Post was referring to the amount of active listings in the luxury space having increased and not sales. There are currently 22 active listings above $10,000,000 on the market between the five counties with them all in Westchester and Dutchess. At the top is a $65,000,000 listing in Millbrook. See those listings here.

In the moment, topping them all is not in the five counties in the analysis, but in Columbia County at a whopping $90,000,000. This is currently the highest priced listing in the entire OneKey MLS system which services the Hudson Valley, Long Island and parts of NYC. Here it is. Here's the deal, though: a seller can ask whatever they want. That listing may very well sell for $90,000,000. The Ledgerock estate in Hyde Park, which I was considered for in representation but the owner didn't agree with my pricing counsel, originally listed for $45,000,000 and was touted as being slated to be "the highest sale in Dutchess County history.". On the market since 2021 and several price reductions later, it is currently on the market for $11,250,000.

As realtors, marketing is a key part of our job. If the realtor has press contacts of their own and/or a PR department in their brokerage, the press can be approached in a multi-prong marketing strategy, particularly when selling luxury. My Willow Brook Farm estate listing enjoyed extensive national and international press coverage. One example of several features was with Mansion Global. "An Escape for New York's Gilded Age Society Now Makes for a Tranquil Family Home." Another after I pitched a story on historic homes in the Hudson Valley to the press and landed my Rhinebeck listing with a 27 photo feature in TimesUnion. See the article. These are just examples. Editorial feature is golden and generally, if featured, it's one shot. It shouldn't be wasted on overpricing

Net net: All counties in the analysis except Westchester aer experiencing buyers market conditions in the $1,000,000+ range combined with 22 listings actively on the market in the $10,000,000+ space across the same counties. Less listings sold in the past five years than are currently active. Unless there are a significant amount of luxury sales in December, we are looking pretty saturated in this space.

Do you see what I see?

I don't have photos yet and I'm still in the research phase, but I can't hold back my excitement about this one.

Built in 1940, this property once served as the water station for residents of Hyde Park - and the cool factor is off the charts if you see what I see. Think: big windows, exposed brick, soaring ceilings, and that industrial Brooklyn-meets-Hudson Valley vibe.

It sits right beside a beautiful winding creek complete with a small waterfall. Municipal water hookup is available, a septic system will need to be installed, and it would likely configure as a two or three bedroom home, if used as a residence. It's zoned "neighborhood" with varied uses. If interested in seeing options, here you go.

It's been abandoned for years, so yes - there are broken windows, some large steel drums that need to go, and work ahead, but it's special and ready for glory.

I'm completely smitten - and if you've followed me long enough, you know it's selling.

I could see this going a few different directions: appealing to architects, Brooklyn or lower Manhattan buyers and local buyers, particularly those in the arts. Journalists in my subscriber base: let's talk.

If this piques your curiosity, let me know and I'l share more details as they unfold. I can't wait to introduce this diamond in the rough to the market. It's below the price point I usually work in, but love is love!

The Past Five Years, Five County Round-up

Homebuyer workshop with Habitat for Humanity of Dutchess County

I'm excited to share that I'll be teaching a homebuyer workshop for Habitat for Humanity of Dutchess County on Wednesday, December 4th from 6:00-7:30PM.

This workshop is geared toward first-time buyers. I plan to cover what to expect from start to finish in the home buying journey, with a focus on building confidence so participants can take their next steps toward homeownership feeling prepared and informed.

The registration link on Habitat's site isn't currently working, but if you or someone you know would like to attend, just reach out to me and I'll make sure you're added to the list. It's open to all!

It's a wrap! Did this one take one coffee or two? If you or someone you know has any questions on the market or if you're interested in how much equity currently exists in your home, reach out! I'm happy to help!

Happy Thanksgiving all!

Gobble, gobble...

Sandi