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Stumbling on Happiness (Vintage)
- Print length336 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherVintage
- Publication date1 Mar. 2007
- Dimensions13.08 x 1.88 x 20.27 cm
- ISBN-109781400077427
- ISBN-13978-1400077427
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From the Back Cover
• Why are lovers quicker to forgive their partners for infidelity than for leaving dirty dishes in the sink?
• Why will sighted people pay more to avoid going blind than blind people will pay to regain their sight?
• Why do dining companions insist on ordering different meals instead of getting what they really want?
• Why do pigeons seem to have such excellent aim; why can't we remember one song while listening to another; and why does the line at the grocery store always slow down the moment we join it?
In this brilliant, witty, and accessible book, renowned Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert describes the foibles of imagination and illusions of foresight that cause each of us to misconceive our tomorrows and misestimate our satisfactions. With penetrating insight and sparkling prose, Gilbert explains why we seem to know so little about the hearts and minds of the people we are about to become.
About the Author
DANIEL GILBERT is Professor of Psychology at Harvard University and Director of the Social Cognition and Emotion Lab. He is generally considered the world's foremost authority in the fields of affective forecasting and the fundamental attribution error. He has published numerous scientific articles and chapters, several short works of fiction, and is the editor of The Handbook of Social Psychology. He has been awarded the Distinguished Scientific Award for an Early Career Contribution to Psychology by the American Psychological Association, fellowships from both the Guggenheim Foundation and the American Philosophical Society, and has been a Fellow at the Center for Advanced Research in the Behavioral Sciences. In 2002, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin listed Gilbert as one of the fifty most influential social psychologists of the decade, and in 2003 one of his research papers was chosen by the editors of P sychological Inquiry as one of four "modern classics" in social psychology.
Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
O, that a man might know The end of this day’s business ere it come! Shakespeare, Julius Caesar Priests vow to remain celibate, physicians vow to do no harm, and letter carriers vow to swiftly complete their appointed rounds despite snow, sleet, and split infinitives. Few people realize that psychologists also take a vow, promising that at some point in their professional lives they will publish a book, a chapter, or at least an article that contains this sentence: “The human being is the only animal that . . .” We are allowed to finish the sentence any way we like, of course, but it has to start with those eight words. Most of us wait until relatively late in our careers to fulfill this solemn obligation because we know that successive generations of psychologists will ignore all the other words that we managed to pack into a lifetime of well-intentioned scholarship and remem- ber us mainly for how we finished The Sentence. We also know that the worse we do, the better we will be remembered. For instance, those psychologists who finished The Sentence with “can use language” were particularly well remembered when chimpanzees were taught to communicate with hand signs. And when researchers discovered that chimps in the wild use sticks to extract tasty ter- mites from their mounds (and to bash one another over the head now and then), the world suddenly remembered the full name and mailing address of every psychologist who had ever finished The Sentence with “uses tools.” So it is for good reason that most psychologists put off completing The Sentence for as long as they can, hoping that if they wait long enough, they just might die in time to avoid being publicly humiliated by a monkey.
I have never before written The Sentence, but I’d like to do so now, with you as my witness. The human being is the only animal that thinks about the future. Now, let me say up front that I’ve had cats, I’ve had dogs, I’ve had gerbils, mice, goldfish, and crabs (no, not that kind), and I do recognize that nonhuman animals often act as though they have the capacity to think about the future. But as bald men with cheap hairpieces always seem to forget, act- ing as though you have something and actually having it are not the same thing, and anyone who looks closely can tell the difference. For example, I live in an urban neighborhood, and every autumn the squirrels in my yard (which is approximately the size of two squirrels) act as though they know that they will be unable to eat later unless they bury some food now. My city has a relatively well-educated citizenry, but as far as anyone can tell its squirrels are not particularly distinguished. Rather, they have regular squirrel brains that run food-burying programs when the amount of sun- light that enters their regular squirrel eyes decreases by a critical amount. Shortened days trigger burying behavior with no intervening contemplation of tomorrow, and the squirrel that stashes a nut in my yard “knows” about the future in approximately the same way that a falling rock “knows” about the law of gravity—which is to say, not really. Until a chimp weeps at the thought of growing old alone, or smiles as it contemplates its summer vacation, or turns down a taffy apple because it already looks too fat in shorts, I will stand by my version of The Sentence. We think about the future in a way that no other animal can, does, or ever has, and this simple, ubiquitous, ordinary act is a defining feature of our humanity.
The Joy of Next
If you were asked to name the human brain’s greatest achievement, you might think first of the impressive artifacts it has produced—the Great Pyramid of Giza, the International Space Station, or perhaps the Golden Gate Bridge. These are great achievements indeed, and our brains deserve their very own ticker-tape parade for producing them. But they are not the greatest. A sophisticated machine could design and build any one of these things because designing and building require knowledge, logic, and patience, of which sophisticated machines have plenty. In fact, there’s really only one achievement so remarkable that even the most sophisticated machine cannot pretend to have accomplished it, and that achievement is conscious experience. Seeing the Great Pyramid or remembering the Golden Gate or imagining the Space Station are far more remarkable acts than is building any one of them. What’s more, one of these remarkable acts is even more remarkable than the others. To see is to experience the world as it is, to remember is to experience the world as it was, but to imagine—ah, to imagine is to experience the world as it isn’t and has never been, but as it might be. The greatest achievement of the human brain is its ability to imagine objects and episodes that do not exist in the realm of the real, and it is this ability that allows us to think about the future. As one philosopher noted, the human brain is an “anticipation machine,” and “making future” is the most important thing it does.
But what exactly does “making future” mean? There are at least two ways in which brains might be said to make future, one of which we share with many other animals, the other of which we share with none. All brains—human brains, chimpanzee brains, even regular food-burying squirrel brains—make predictions about the immediate, local, personal, future. They do this by using information about current events (“I smell something”) and past events (“Last time I smelled this smell, a big thing tried to eat me”) to anticipate the event that is most likely to happen to them next (“A big thing is about to ———”). ut notice two features of this so-called prediction. First, despite the comic quips inside the parentheses, predictions such as these do not require the brain making them to have anything even remotely resembling a conscious thought. Just as an abacus can put two and two together to produce four without having thoughts about arithmetic, so brains can add past to present to make future without ever thinking about any of them. In fact, it doesn’t even require a brain to make predictions such as these. With just a little bit of training, the giant sea slug known as Aplysia parvula can learn to predict and avoid an electric shock to its gill, and as anyone with a scalpel can easily demonstrate, sea slugs are inarguably brainless. Computers are also brainless, but they use precisely the same trick the sea slug does when they turn down your credit card because you were trying to buy dinner in Paris after buying lunch in Hoboken. In short, machines and invertebrates prove that it doesn’t take a smart, self-aware, conscious, brain to make simple predictions about the future.
The second thing to notice is that predictions such as these are not particularly far-reaching. They are not predictions in the same sense that we might predict the annual rate of inflation, the intellectual impact of postmodernism, the heat death of the universe, or Madonna’s next hair color. Rather, these are predictions about what will happen in precisely this spot, precisely next, to precisely me, and we call them predictions only because there is no better word for them in the English language. But the use of that term—with its inescapable connotations of calculated, thoughtful reflection about events that may occur anywhere, to anyone, at any time—risks ob- scuring the fact that brains are continuously making predictions about the immediate, local, personal, future of their owners without their owners’ awareness. Rather than saying that such brains are predicting, let’s say that they are nexting.
Yours is nexting right now. For example, at this moment you may be consciously thinking about the sentence you just read, or about the key ring in your pocket that is jammed uncomfortably against your thigh, or about whether the War of 1812 really deserves its own overture. Whatever you are thinking, your thoughts are surely about something other than the word with which this sentence will end. But even as you hear these very words echoing in your very head, and think whatever thoughts they inspire, your brain is using the word it is reading right now and the words it read just before to make a reasonable guess about the identity of the word it will read next, which is what allows you to read so fluently. Any brain that has been raised on a steady diet of film noir and cheap detective novels fully expects the word night to follow the phrase It was a dark and stormy, and thus when it does encounter the word night, it is especially well prepared to digest it. As long as your brain’s guess about the next word turns out to be right, you cruise along happily, left to right, left to right, turning black squiggles into ideas, scenes, characters, and concepts, blissfully unaware that your nexting brain is predicting the future of the sentence at a fantastic rate. It is only when your brain predicts badly that you suddenly feel avocado.
That is, surprised. See?
Now, consider the meaning of that brief moment of surprise. Surprise is an emotion we feel when we encounter the unexpected—for example, thirty-four acquaintances in paper hats standing in our living room yelling “Happy birthday!” as we walk through the front door with a bag of groceries and a full bladder—and thus the occurrence of surprise reveals the nature of our expectations. The surprise you felt at the end of the last paragraph reveals that as you were reading the phrase it is only when your brain predicts badly that you suddenly feel . . . , your brain was simultaneously making a reasonable prediction about what would happen next. It predicted that sometime in the next few milliseconds your eyes would come across a set of black squiggles that encoded an English word that described a feeling, such as sad or nauseous or even surprised. Instead, it encountered a fruit, which woke you from your dogmatic slumbers and revealed the nature of your expectations to anyone who was watching. Surprise tells us that we were expecting something other than what we got, even when we didn’t know we were expecting anything at all.
Because feelings of surprise are generally accompanied by reactions that can be observed and measured—such as eyebrow arch- ing, eye widening, jaw dropping, and noises followed by a series of exclamation marks—psychologists can use surprise to tell them when a brain is nexting. For example, when monkeys see a researcher drop a ball down one of several chutes, they quickly look to the bottom of that chute and wait for the ball to reemerge. When some experimental trickery causes the ball to emerge from a different chute than the one in which it was deposited, the monkeys display surprise, presumably because their brains were nexting. Human babies have similar responses to weird physics. For example, when babies are shown a video of a big red block smashing into a little yellow block, they react with indifference when the little yellow block instantly goes careening off the screen. But when the little yellow block hesitates for just a moment or two before careening away, babies stare like bystanders at a train wreck—as though the delayed careening had violated some prediction made by their nexting brains. Studies such as these tell us that monkey brains “know” about gravity (objects fall down, not sideways) and that baby human brains “know” about kinetics (moving objects transfer energy to stationary objects at precisely the moment they contact them and not a few seconds later). But more important, they tell us that monkey brains and baby human brains add what they already know (the past) to what they currently see (the present) to predict what will happen next (the future). When the actual next thing is different from the predicted next thing, monkeys and babies experience surprise.
Our brains were made for nexting, and that’s just what they’ll do. When we take a stroll on the beach, our brains predict how stable the sand will be when our foot hits it, and then adjust the tension in our knee accordingly. When we leap to catch a Frisbee, our brains predict where the disc will be when we cross its flight path, and then bring our hands to precisely that point. When we see a sand crab scurry behind a bit of driftwood on its way to the water, our brains predict when and where the critter will reappear, and then direct our eyes to the precise point of its reemergence. These predictions are remarkable in both the speed and accuracy with which they are made, and it is difficult to imagine what our lives would be like if our brains quit making them, leaving us completely “in the moment” and unable to take our next step. But while these automatic, continuous, nonconscious predictions of the immediate, local, personal, future are both amazing and ubiquitous, they are not the sorts of predictions that got our species out of the trees and into dress slacks. In fact, these are the kinds of predictions that frogs make without ever leaving their lily pads, and hence not the sort that The Sentence was meant to describe. No, the variety of future that we human beings manufacture—and that only we manufacture—is of another sort entirely.
Product details
- ASIN : 1400077427
- Publisher : Vintage
- Publication date : 1 Mar. 2007
- Edition : Illustrated
- Language : English
- Print length : 336 pages
- ISBN-10 : 9781400077427
- ISBN-13 : 978-1400077427
- Item weight : 240 g
- Dimensions : 13.08 x 1.88 x 20.27 cm
- Best Sellers Rank: 83,404 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- 249 in Scientific Psychology & Psychiatry
- 317 in Popular Psychology
- 399 in Higher Education of Biological Sciences
- Customer reviews:
About the author

Daniel Gilbert is Harvard College Professor of Psychology at Harvard University. He has won numerous awards for his teaching and research, including the American Psychological Association's Distinguished Scientific Award for an Early Career Contribution to Psychology. His research has been covered by The New York Times Magazine, Forbes, Money, CNN, U.S. News & World Report, The New Yorker, The Wall Street Journal, Scientific American, Self, Men's Health, Redbook, Glamour, Psychology Today, and many others. His short stories have appeared in Amazing Stories and Asimov's Science Fiction Magazine, as well as other magazines and anthologies. He lives in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
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Top reviews from the United Kingdom
- 5 out of 5 stars
A surefooted guide to happiness but no guarantees
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 14 January 2012One thing we know about happiness is that it comes in all sorts of shapes and sizes including, for me, this wonderful book. It does its best to hide its scientific credentials beneath a spray of kindergarten colours, and enjoys the kind of garish design more usually seen on the pop psychology and self-help shelves of bookshops. That might have put me off, if Daniel Gilbert had not already come highly recommended, by no less a figure than fellow psychologist Daniel Kahneman. (Gilbert returns the compliment on the jacket of Thinking, Fast and Slow, describing it as a "masterpiece".) Both are fascinated by how our minds work - or don't, as the case may be - hence the "stumbling" part of the title. The pursuit of happiness is no simple jaunt along a primrose path of sensuous indulgence. Whatever route we take, we cannot avoid the sometimes rocky road of cognition, designed by millions of years of evolution to improve our chances of survival but not necessarily to make us happy.
Some of the illusory boulders we regularly trip over include being made less happy by variety, not more, stopping loving new things soon after we buy them, and discovering that money really doesn't buy happiness. We all know this last one, of course, don't we? Once we've earned as much money as we can actually enjoy, we'll quit working and enjoy it, right? Wrong. For Gilbert, money is implicated in some dodgy cultural wisdom about happiness (it "looks suspiciously like a super-replicating false belief"). "In short, the production of wealth does not necessarily make individuals happy, but it does serve the needs of an economy, which serves as a network for the propagation of delusional beliefs about happiness and wealth."
So, the activities to which we devote most of our waking hours - shopping for shiny things, working to earn spondulits, getting through that list of fifty things to do before we die - may not bring about the one thing we all want from them: happiness. On the plus side, "most people are surprisingly resilient in the face of trauma" - if you're paralysed in a car accident, after a while life won't be all that bad. We have a kind of "psychological immune system" that defends the mind against unhappiness, only we tend to ignore its power: when volunteers in an experiment were asked "to predict their emotional reactions to rejection, they imagined its sharp sting. Period. They did not go on to imagine how their brains might try to relieve that sting."
There's a pattern emerging. When it comes to happiness, it's not only the objective events that matter, but what we make of them. This is why our remarkable ability to imagine - "to experience the world as it isn't and has never been, but as it might be" - is the key to understanding happiness. Being "the only animal that thinks about the future" is fantastic, but how good are we? Again, we're back on that rocky road, stumbling on happiness, and this book charts just how well the human brain "can predict which of those futures it will enjoy".
Happiness seems such a highly variable and personal emotion that science ought to have little to say about it, and introducing the imagination is hardly going to make things easier. However, Gilbert begins by recalling his childhood fascination with optical illusions, which are scientifically interesting because everyone makes the same mistake and the mistakes are compelling, even when you're aware you're making them. "The errors that optical illusions induce in our perceptions are lawful, regular and systematic. They are not dumb mistakes but smart mistakes - mistakes that allow those who understand them to glimpse the elegant design and inner workings of the visual system."
We make similar kinds of systematic error when "we fail to recognize that our future selves won't see the world the way we see it now" and we compound that error with our "inability to take the perspective of the person to whom the rest of our lives will happen". That things close up seem clearer is obvious; that this also happens in time as well as space less so, when it's not our eyes but our imaginations that are doing the looking. Then, "the clarity of the next hour and the fuzziness of the next year can lead us to make a variety of mistakes".
While people can be wrong about what they are feeling, what we can say is that all claims of happiness are claims from someone's point of view - "from the perspective of a single human being whose unique collection of past experiences serves as a context, a lens, a background for her evaluation of her current experience". There is no view from nowhere.
In "Stumbling on Happiness" Daniel Gilbert guides us through some of the latest scientific research in psychology as well as drawing upon the history of ideas and our understanding of the nature of science. He has written elsewhere about tracing his own theory of belief to the seventeenth-century philosopher Baruch Spinoza, and here he suggests that "Bernoulli's brilliance lay not in his mathematics but in his psychology" - in his realization that what we objectively get (wealth) is not the same as what we subjectively experience. "The sad fact is that converting wealth to utility - that is, predicting how we will feel from knowledge of what we will get - isn't very much like converting metres to yards... The simple, lawful relationships that bind numbers to numbers and words to words do not bind objective events to emotional experiences."
Unsurprisingly, there is no simple formula for finding happiness. In a universe like ours, perhaps we should be grateful to find any kind of happiness at all. Gilbert concludes that, "if our great big brains do not allow us to go surefootedly into our futures, they at least allow us to understand what makes us stumble".
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CancelReport - 4 out of 5 stars
Intriguing but slow and ultimately incomplete
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 21 July 2013The central thesis of this book is that we are unable to accurately imagine the future because we don't model important details accurately. Instead our minds tend to confabulate based on our current internal states. A more reliable method is simply to ask someone who is currently doing what we intend to do, as human experience is much more common than individuals like to believe. The rest of the book is about building a water tight proof of this thesis based on peer-reviewed studies. I found the evidence compelling (and now you don't need to read the book to know the conclusion).
The writing is snappy and often very funny, but for me I was hoping for a final chapter outlining those things that people report are actually making them happy compared with commonly held beliefs about what might (and indeed some untangling of those things/states/activities people believe are making them happy and what is actually doing it).
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CancelReport - 3 out of 5 stars
Pop Psychology
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 2 January 2012I selected this book on the strength of it having won the Royal Society prize,but found that it lacked a certain academic rigor that I would expect from a piece of work with such a lofty accolade.
Although it contains many interesting facts gleaned from the results of recent psychological experiments, its style was too light and frivolous for my taste.I've never been a fan of attempts at humour in science books,as it seems to me to be a cheap marketing ploy and judging by the books success it seems to have worked.
To give it its due though,it does contain some enlightening information on the human thought process,that readers of pop pyschology will find interesting,and I feel that the outcomes of this type of research should be available to the general public,who after-all fund it in the first place.
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CancelReport - 5 out of 5 stars
Funny, interesting and thought provoking.
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 21 October 2017The authors use of humour and conversational style makes what could have been a very dry book interesting and lively.
The book teaches us that we have a very poor idea of how to achieve happiness. Among other things we don’t account that our thinking and feelings change over time, that our psychological immune systems kick in to make bad things feel better and that we don’t realise how much our own mind hides from us when constructing our imagination.
The author's solution is to tell us to trust the feelings of others currently in the position that we would like to be in the future. The solution is simple and short but leaves you wanting more. If that’s your feeling too then I highly recommend reading ‘Happy’ by Derren Brown after this book or for something shorter and less academic than ‘Happy’ you could go for Mark Manson's ‘The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F***' (Amazon won't let me type out the books name probably).
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CancelReport - 4 out of 5 stars
A logical and valuable read
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 20 December 2012I got something from this book, which is more than you can say for the usual self-help trash.
I enjoyed reading this overall though I found it around 50 pages too long for the content it conveys. It is a pretty thorough going-through of what happiness is and the science behind getting more of it. If you're determined to be happier, this will point you in the right direction as well as you could expect. There are a few easy solutions and a few more complicated solutions.
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CancelReport - 5 out of 5 stars
Entertaining but serious discussion of the science of happiness
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 14 April 2014I have reviewed several books on this and related subjects. This one is unusual because it is written in an extremely chatty style but it is deceptively intelligent. Unlike some popular psychology books, this is based on the most respectable scientific research.
The author takes care to tell you at the beginning that there is no simple or clever way to increase your happiness. He warns you that he is going to delay the best advice to the end and that when it comes you won't like it. In the meantime he devotes much of the book to preparing you so that when it does come you realize that, frustrating as it is, his advice is exquisitely good.
{I never write spoilers in my reviews but if requested I will say more in a comment.)
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CancelReport - 3 out of 5 stars
Witty and engaging but unlikely to bring you happiness.
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 20 January 2008This is a well researched book that is both witty and engaging and makes the rather dry subject of psychology fun to dip into.
Unfortunately, if you're currently feeling depressed or in search of meaning in your life or in your quest for happiness then you're very unlikely to find it within the pages of this book.
The authors compulsion to be continually amusing becomes tiresome after reading only a few chapters of the book so by the time I reached the Q & A section at the end of the book where the interviwer asks Gilbert if he is an optimist and is told " No sorry, I don't know the first thing about making eyeglasses", I realised that I had wasted my time reading this book.
Instead of reading 'Stumbling on Happiness' I should have picked up my copy of 'Learned Optimism' by Martin Seligman and re-read that instead - a book by an eminent psychologist that knows how to write with warmth and humour and really does teach a thing or two about happiness in the process.
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CancelReport - 3 out of 5 stars
Lost interest about half-way through.
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 25 July 2016Starts off well, but eventually I ran out of steam, wading through interminable summaries of psychological studies. One of the problems with scientists trying to write for a general public is that they often feel the need to reference things in the same way as an academic paper. I think the author could have established his credentials, told us that references are at the back of the book for those who are interested, and then just got on and told the story. Although his style is often humorous, the overall structure of the book is rambly and waffly. And I had that unsettling experience of reading a chapter on the way to work on the train, and by coffee-time being unable to remember any of it.
Might be useful to dip into, but to read from cover to cover I think it's just too dense and intent on establishing its own importance.
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Top reviews from other countries
Joseph Hogan5 out of 5 starsA game changer
Reviewed in Spain on 16 September 2017excellent. well written, relevant, great research and better still, so much food for thought. The point of the book could be summarised in one page, but every page is worth the read. There are a number of books around at present which are reshaping thought and psychology and finally putting the popular therapy style make yourself happy or you don't deserve to live, books out of print. About time! This is ne of them. One extremely important book. Don't expect the writer to tell you how to be happy. In fact, he himself points this out on numerous pages of the book.
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Dr Alec E Wills5 out of 5 starsWell I didn't think i would be but that's the point!
Reviewed in Australia on 28 July 2017Very well written with a huge amount of information about lots of experiments that have provided some surprising insights, pun intended, into happiness, why we want it and why it's difficult to find. I enjoyed the stumble and as a very average person, I can almost guarantee you will as well, so read the book to find out why I can be so confident on this.
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Kindle Customer5 out of 5 starsChanging my consciousness .
Reviewed in Mexico on 30 September 2025A really good book, one of the best I read so far. It helps me to change a little the way I perceived external impulses and make better decisions.
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Omri2 out of 5 starsWrong cover
Reviewed in the Netherlands on 20 August 2022Specifically ordered this version of the book for the cover as shown. However, this less aesthetic cover was sent. Quite disappointed, at least show that there are two versions.
2 out of 5 starsWrong cover
Reviewed in the Netherlands on 20 August 2022Specifically ordered this version of the book for the cover as shown. However, this less aesthetic cover was sent. Quite disappointed, at least show that there are two versions.
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P5 out of 5 starsGood
Reviewed in India on 4 July 2026Very good! And old book but an insightful one. Especially breaks certain myths on happniess
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