DPRK Nuclear Programme Project
Publication links for the "Open-Source Assessments of the DPRK’s Nuclear Programme" project.
ArcGIS StoryMaps
Open-Source Assessments of the DPRK’s Nuclear Programme
Open-Source Assessments of the DPRK’s Nuclear Programme
A collection of reports, papers, and StoryMaps.
Estimating North Korea's Nuclear Material Inventory
Estimating North Korea's Nuclear Material Inventory
What nuclear fuel cycle modelling and open sources tell us about North Korea’s nuclear ambitions
North Korea's Uranium and Enrichment Infrastructure
North Korea's Uranium and Enrichment Infrastructure
What nuclear fuel cycle modelling and open sources tell us about North Korea’s nuclear ambitions
North Korea's Plutonium Infrastructure
North Korea's Plutonium Infrastructure
What nuclear fuel cycle modelling and open sources tell us about North Korea’s nuclear ambitions
Nuclear Weapon Pit Production in the DPRK
Nuclear Weapon Pit Production in the DPRK
Indicators of nuclear weapon pit production and how to look for them.
High-Explosives Testing in the DPRK
High-Explosives Testing in the DPRK
A Comparative Analysis
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Reports
Indicators of nuclear weapon pit production and North Korea
Indicators of nuclear weapon pit production and North Korea
Modeling Plutonium Production in the ELWR of North Korea
Modeling Plutonium Production in the ELWR of North Korea
Since North Korea left the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons in 2003, its nuclear fuel cycle has continued to operate and develop further, without transparency to international insp...
DPRK Nuclear Futures Workshop
DPRK Nuclear Futures Workshop
In February 2024, VERTIC, ONN, and CNS held a two-day workshop to assess the future of the DPRK’s nuclear programme. The event examined scenarios for weapons-usable nuclear material production, delivery systems and verification options in potential agreements. Using expert elicitation and forecasting, it provided key insights into the DPRK’s evolving capabilities.
Fissile Material and Nuclear Force Structure in North Korea
Fissile Material and Nuclear Force Structure in North Korea
ONN Senior Analyst Sarah Laderman, Research Assistant Nikita Degtyarev, Analyst Tianran Xu, Research Assistant Elin Bergner and Research and Analysis Manager Marcy R Fowler authored a report "Fissile Material and Nuclear Force Structure in North Korea" for The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI), providing an in-depth analysis of North Korea's approach to its nuclear force structure.
DPRK Nuclear Weapons Development - Literature Review
DPRK Nuclear Weapons Development - Literature Review
There exists no recent comprehensive literature review related to the DPRK’s nuclear weapons development capabilities and associated strategy. This paper seeks to fill this gap by compiling and summarising all major published analyses released since 2017.
Size Estimates of DPRK's Nuclear Devices
Size Estimates of DPRK's Nuclear Devices
The DPRK nuclear warheads showcased before 2023 have a maximum diameter of around 600 mm and were likely intended to be delivered by ballistic missiles. The Hwasan-31 nuclear warhead, newly revealed in late March 2023, has a reduced diameter of around 460 mm, suggesting advances in miniaturization. Assuming the Hwasan-31 has not been tested before, the DPRK is likely to conduct a seventh nuclear test to validate its parameters before it enters full production, in furtherance of DPRK leader Kim Jong Un’s order for exponential expansion of the State’s nuclear arsenal.
High-Explosives Testing in Nuclear Weapons Programmes
High-Explosives Testing in Nuclear Weapons Programmes
This paper examines how high-explosives support implosion-type nuclear weapons and why their testing matters. Building on ONN and VERTIC's open-source work on DPRK nuclear capabilities, it offers a practical baseline for analysing high-explosives testing programmes and signatures in the DPRK and other states.
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