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. 2006 Oct 3;103(40):14653-60.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.0605726103. Epub 2006 Sep 26.

Reconstruction of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: a research perspective

Affiliations

Reconstruction of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: a research perspective

R W Kates et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

Four propositions drawn from 60 years of natural hazard and reconstruction research provide a comparative and historical perspective on the reconstruction of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. Decisions taken over its 288-year history that have made New Orleans so vulnerable to Katrina reflect a long-term pattern of societal response to hazard events--reducing consequences to relatively frequent events, and increasing vulnerability to very large and rare events. Thus Katrina's consequences for New Orleans were truly catastrophic--accounting for most of the estimated 1,570 deaths of Louisiana residents and $40-50 billion in monetary losses. A comparative sequence and timing of recovery provides a calendar of historical experience against which to gauge progress in reconstruction. Using this calendar, the emergency post-disaster period appears to be longer in duration than that of any other studied disaster. The restoration period, the time taken to restore urban services for the smaller population, is in keeping with or ahead of historical experience. The effort to reconstruct the physical environment and urban infrastructure is likely to take 8-11 years. Conflicting policy goals for reconstruction of rapid recovery, safety, betterment, and equity are already evident. Actions taken demonstrate the rush to rebuild the familiar in contrast to planning efforts that emphasize betterment. Because disasters tend to accelerate existing economic, social, and political trends, the large losses in housing, population, and employment after Katrina are likely to persist and, at best, only partly recover. However, the possibility of breaking free of this gloomy trajectory is feasible and has some historical precedent.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Levee construction, subsequent development, and Katrina flood area in New Orleans, 1900–2005.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
The sequence and timing of reconstruction after Katrina in New Orleans with actual experience (solid lines) and sample indicators for the first year along a logarithmic time line of weeks after the disaster. The long-term projections (dashed lines) are based on an emergency period of 6 weeks, a restoration period of 45 weeks, and a 10-fold historical experience for reconstruction.

References

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    1. National Research Council, Committee on Disaster Research in the Social Sciences: Future Challenges and Opportunities . Facing Hazards and Disasters: Understanding Human Dimensions. Washington, DC: Natl Acad Press; 2006.

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