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. 2011 Feb;101(2):310-4.
doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2009.189225.

The impact of declining smoking on radon-related lung cancer in the United States

David Méndez  1 , Omar Alshanqeety, Kenneth E Warner, Paula M Lantz, Paul N Courant
Affiliations

The impact of declining smoking on radon-related lung cancer in the United States

David Méndez et al. Am J Public Health. 2011 Feb.

Abstract

Objectives: We examined the effect of current patterns of smoking rates on future radon-related lung cancer.

Methods: We combined the model developed by the National Academy of Science's Committee on Health Risks of Exposure to Radon (the BEIR VI committee) for radon risk assessment with a forecasting model of US adult smoking prevalence to estimate proportional decline in radon-related deaths during the present century with and without mitigation of high-radon houses.

Results: By 2025, the reduction in radon mortality from smoking reduction (15 percentage points) will surpass the maximum expected reduction from remediation (12 percentage points).

Conclusions: Although still a genuine source of public health concern, radon-induced lung cancer is likely to decline substantially, driven by reductions in smoking rates. Smoking decline will reduce radon deaths more that remediation of high-radon houses, a fact that policymakers should consider as they contemplate the future of cancer control.

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Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Estimated reduction in annual radon deaths among the US population, factoring in smoking prevalence and housing remediation, from 2006 to 2100.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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