Context: Experimental data support a role for vasopressin in metabolic disorders.

Objective: We investigated associations of plasma copeptin, a surrogate of vasopressin, and of allelic variations in the arginine vasopressin-neurophysin II gene with insulin secretion, insulin sensitivity, and the risk for impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

Design, setting, and participants: We studied 5110 unrelated French men and women from a prospective cohort of the general population (Data from Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance Syndrome cohort, 9-y follow-up). Six single nucleotide polymorphisms were genotyped.

Main outcome measure: Incidence of IFG or T2DM during follow-up.

Results: The incidence of hyperglycemia (IFG/T2DM) during follow-up by quartiles of baseline plasma copeptin was 11.0% (Q1), 14.5% (Q2), 17.0% (Q3), and 23.5% (Q4), log-rank test P = .003. Participants in the upper quartile of plasma copeptin had significantly lower insulin sensitivity (homeostasis model assessment index) at baseline and during follow-up, as compared with other participants. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses showed significant associations of the CC genotype of rs6084264, the TT genotype of rs2282018, the C-allele of rs2770381, and the CC genotype of rs1410713 with the incidence of hyperglycemia. The genotypes associated with an increased risk of hyperglycemia were also associated with increased plasma copeptin in men but not in women.

Conclusions: High plasma copeptin was associated with reduced insulin sensitivity and an increased risk for IFG/T2DM diabetes in this community-based cohort. Moreover, in men, allelic associations support a causal role for vasopressin in these disorders.