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. 2023 Mar 29;10(1):155.
doi: 10.1038/s41597-023-02041-1.

National contributions to climate change due to historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide since 1850

Matthew W Jones  1 , Glen P Peters  2 , Thomas Gasser  3 , Robbie M Andrew  2 , Clemens Schwingshackl  4 , Johannes Gütschow  5 , Richard A Houghton  6 , Pierre Friedlingstein  7 , Julia Pongratz  4   8 , Corinne Le Quéré  9
Affiliations

National contributions to climate change due to historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide since 1850

Matthew W Jones et al. Sci Data. .

Abstract

Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have made significant contributions to global warming since the pre-industrial period and are therefore targeted in international climate policy. There is substantial interest in tracking and apportioning national contributions to climate change and informing equitable commitments to decarbonisation. Here, we introduce a new dataset of national contributions to global warming caused by historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide during the years 1851-2021, which are consistent with the latest findings of the IPCC. We calculate the global mean surface temperature response to historical emissions of the three gases, including recent refinements which account for the short atmospheric lifetime of CH4. We report national contributions to global warming resulting from emissions of each gas, including a disaggregation to fossil and land use sectors. This dataset will be updated annually as national emissions datasets are updated.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
National contributions to change in global mean surface temperature (GMST, °C) resulting from historical emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O during three time periods. All data shown are provided in the Data Records.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
National contributions to change in global mean surface temperature (GMST) resulting from historical emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O during three time periods. Values are expressed as a percentage of the change in GMST due to all global emissions of the three gases. All data shown are provided in the Data Records.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Annual emissions of CO2 (Pg CO2 year−1), CH4 (Tg CH4 year−1) and N2O (Tg N2O year−1) during 1850–2021, shown globally and for selected countries and country groupings. The primary data sources are the global carbon budget and PRIMAP-hist,– (see Methods for data sources). The ISO3 codes of countries in the legend are: CHN, China; RUS, Russia; BRA, Brazil; IND, India; IDN, Indonesia. All data shown are provided in the Data Records.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Cumulative emissions of CO2 (Pg CO2), CH4 (Tg CH4) and N2O (Tg N2O) and their sum (3-GHG; Pg CO2-e100) during 1851–2021, shown globally and for selected regions. Emissions of CH4 and N2O are converted to units Pg CO2-e100 using the GWP* approach and summed to a 3-GHG total (bottom row). The ISO3 codes of countries in the legend are: CHN, China; RUS, Russia; BRA, Brazil; IND, India; IDN, Indonesia. All data shown are provided in the Data Records.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Response of global mean surface temperature (GMST, °C) to emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O during 1851–2021, shown globally and for selected regions. The GMST response to historical CH4 emissions began to fall in some developed regions towards the end of the 20th Century due to a decline in CH4 emissions versus prior decades (see Fig. 3). The temperature response is calculated by multiplying the transient response to cumulative emissions of CO2 (TCRE) by the total emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O expressed in Pg CO2-e100. Emissions of CH4 and N2O are converted to units Pg CO2-e100 using the GWP* approach. The ISO3 codes of countries in the legend are: CHN, China; RUS, Russia; BRA, Brazil; IND, India; IDN, Indonesia. All data shown are provided in the Data Records.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
National or regional contributions (%) to change in global mean surface temperature (GMST) during 1851–2021, shown for selected regions. The ISO3 codes of countries in the legend are: CHN, China; RUS, Russia; BRA, Brazil; IND, India; IDN, Indonesia. All data shown are provided in the Data Records.
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Percentage of each country’s total contribution to change in global mean surface temperature (GMST) related to emissions of CO2 (as opposed to CH4 or N2O), over three time periods. All data shown are provided in the Data Records.
Fig. 8
Fig. 8
Percentage of each country’s total contribution to change in global mean surface temperature (GMST) related to emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF; as opposed to fossil sources), over three time periods. These data relate to the total CO2-equivalent emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O. All data shown are provided in the Data Records.
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