Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2024 Mar 8;10(10):eadk9590.
doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adk9590. Epub 2024 Mar 8.

Has the Supreme Court become just another political branch? Public perceptions of court approval and legitimacy in a post- Dobbs world

Matthew Levendusky  1   2 , Shawn Patterson Jr  2 , Michele Margolis  1 , Josh Pasek  3 , Kenneth Winneg  2 , Kathleen H Jamieson  2   4
Affiliations

Has the Supreme Court become just another political branch? Public perceptions of court approval and legitimacy in a post- Dobbs world

Matthew Levendusky et al. Sci Adv. .

Abstract

Have perceptions of the U.S. Supreme Court polarized, much like the rest of American politics? Because of the Court's unique role, for many years, it remained one of the few institutions respected by both Democrats and Republicans alike. But the Court's dramatic shift to the right in recent years-highlighted by its Dobbs decision in 2022-potentially upends that logic. Using both eight waves of panel data and 18 nationally representative surveys spanning two decades, we show that while there was little evidence of partisan polarization in earlier years, in 2022 and 2023, such patterns are clear in favorability, trust, legitimacy, and support for reform. Factors that used to protect the Court-like knowledge about it and support for key democratic values-no longer do so. The Court has also become more important to voters, and will likely remain a political flashpoint, with disquieting implications for the Court's place in our polity.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.. Trust in institutions over time, Gallup data.
Percent of the public who has a great deal or fair amount of trust in political institutions; for original data through 2022 available in (57). Court data for 2023 available in (58).
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.. Content analysis of the New York Times coverage of the Supreme Court, 2008–2023.
(A) Number of articles per year referring to the court with ideological terms. (B) Number of articles discussing the Court’s legitimacy and calling for reform. (C) Number of articles referencing partisanship in relation to the justices. (D) Number of articles discussing various salient cases over time. Issue shares less than 25% are suppressed for clarity. Note that 2023 data are incomplete and run through 20 June 2023.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.. Trust and favorability of the U.S. Supreme Court 2021–2023, AIOD panel data.
(A) and (B) show the overall aggregate trends and (C) and (D) show them by the respondent’s partisanship, with Independent leaners treated as partisans [see (59)].
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.. Importance of Supreme Court nominations to presidential vote 2021–2023, AIOD panel data.
Fig. 5.
Fig. 5.. Overtime partisan polarization in Supreme Court legitimacy.
(A) Index of items. (B to I) Individual items. Each panel contains point estimates and 95% confidence intervals for the effects of partisanship on each outcome variable controlling for age, education, partisanship, and race. Data from APPC surveys and the TAPS data.
Fig. 6.
Fig. 6.. Knowledge about the Court and Supreme Court legitimacy, 2007–2022.
(A) to (D) show, by year, the predicted values of legitimacy as knowledge varies (by party), holding all other values constant; gray-shaded areas are 95% confidence intervals. Data from APPC surveys.
Fig. 7.
Fig. 7.. Support for democratic values and Supreme Court legitimacy, 2015 and 2023.
(A) Results from 2015 TAPS data. (B) Results from 2023 APPC data. Both panels show the predicted values of legitimacy as support for values varies (by party), holding all other values constant; gray-shaded areas are 95% confidence intervals.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. J. Gibson, G. Caldeira, Citizens, Courts, and Confirmations (Princeton Univ. Press, 2009).
    1. J. Hibbing, E. Theiss-Morse, Congress as Public Enemy (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2012).
    1. Gibson J., Nelson M., The legitimacy of the US Supreme Court: Conventional wisdoms and recent challenges thereto. Annu. Rev. Law Soc. Sci. 10, 201–219 (2014).
    1. A. Gou, E. Erskine, J. Romoser, SCOTUSblog: Stat Pack for the Supreme Court’s 2021-2022 Term; https://bit.ly/3TgJw5t.
    1. D. Gregorian, “Sotomayor suggests Supreme Court won’t ‘survive the stench’ of overturning Roe v. Wade,” NBC News, 1 December 2021.

Publication types

LinkOut - more resources