NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two the primary threats. Large to very large hail is possible with stronger storms over the northern half of Arkansas.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast today. See details...

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Fri (04/17). See details...

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Thu (04/16)	Fri (04/17)	Sat (04/18)	Sun (04/19)	Mon (04/20)	Tue (04/21)	Wed (04/22)	Thu (04/23)
Severe	Slight	Enhanced	Slight	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Critical	Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1994-2024)

Any Severe Probabilities: 16 Apr

Sig Severe Probabilities: 16 Apr

Tornado Probabilities: 16 Apr

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 16 Apr

Severe Hail Probabilities: 16 Apr

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 16 Apr

Significant Wind Probabilities: 16 Apr

Significant Hail Probabilities: 16 Apr

More climatology data here.

2026 Tornado Watch Summary

Page last modified: April 16 2026 12:26 UTC

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2026 Severe Thunderstorm Watch Summary

Page last modified: April 16 2026 12:26 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2020)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 16 Apr

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 16 Apr

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 16 Apr

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 16 Apr

More climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Lyons, A. D., R. L. Thompson, B. T. Smith, H. G. Weinman, and A. R. Dean, 2026: Convective Mode Classification and Distribution of Contiguous U.S. Tornado Events from 2003 to 2023. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [19600 PDF]
Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025: Leveraging Coproduction to Bridge Research and Operations in Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6601K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025: An Assessment of How Domain Experts Evaluate Machine Learning in Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [16916K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025: On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part II: An Updated Spatial Climatology of Derechos across the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [3250K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025: On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part I: Construction of the Definition and Quantitative Criteria for Identifying Future Derechos over the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [5585K PDF]
Moore, A., 2024: Investigating the Near-Surface Wind Fields of Downbursts Using a Series of High-Resolution Idealized Simulations. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6768K PDF]
Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2024: Right-Moving Supercell Tornadogenesis during Interaction with a Left-Moving Supercell's Rear-Flank Outflow. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [15153K PDF] (supplemental radar loop, standard enhancements [27170K MP4]), (supplemental radar loop, colorblind enhancements [33950K MP4])
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part II: Parent Storm Structure, Environmental Conditions, and History of Numerical Forecasts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [10595K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part I: Identification, Climatology, and Societal Impacts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [6899K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., 2023: A Comparison of Right-Moving Supercell and Quasi-Linear Convective System Tornadoes in the Contiguous United States 2003-21. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4539K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Apr 14, 2026	Tornado: 8	Wind: 137	Hail: 251

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