Books
Intermediate Macroeconomics (with Nicolas Vincent), 2021, Pearson Education
Articles
“Monetary Policy without Commitment,” (with Hassan Afrouzi, Marina Halac, and Kenneth Rogoff), 2026, American Economic Review, 116, 2422-2453
“A Theory of Fiscal Responsibility and Irresponsibility,” (with Marina Halac), 2025, Journal of Political Economy, 133, 1574-1620
“Changing Central Bank Pressures and Inflation,” (with Hassan Afrouzi, Marina Halac, and Kenneth Rogoff), 2024, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2024, 205-241
“Central Bank Credibility and Fiscal Responsibility,” (with Jesse Schreger and Emilio Zaratiegui), 2024, American Economic Review: Insights, 6, 377-394
“The Commitment Benefit of Consols in Government Debt Management,” (with Davide Debortoli and Ricardo Nunes), 2022, American Economic Review: Insights, 4, 255-270
- Online Appendix
“Fiscal Rules and Discretion under Limited Enforcement,” (with Marina Halac), 2022, Econometrica, 90, 2093-2127
- Online Appendix
“Instrument-Based vs. Target-Based Rules,” (with Marina Halac), 2022, Review of Economic Studies, 89, 312-345
- Online Appendix
“Pandemic Lockdown: The Role of Government Commitment,” (with Christian Moser), 2022, Review of Economic Dynamics, 46, 27-50
“Optimal Fiscal Policy without Commitment: Revisiting Lucas-Stokey,” (with Davide Debortoli and Ricardo Nunes), 2021, Journal of Political Economy, 129, 1640-1665
- Online Appendix
“Inflation Targeting under Political Pressure,” (with Marina Halac), 2020, in Independence, Credibility, and Communication of Central Banking, edited by Ernesto Pastén and Ricardo Reis, Santiago, Chile: Central Bank of Chile, 7-27
“Commitment vs. Flexibility with Costly Verification,” (with Marina Halac), 2020, Journal of Political Economy, 128, 4523-4573
- Online Appendix
“The Optimal Public and Private Provision of Safe Assets,” (with Marina Azzimonti), 2019, Journal of Monetary Economics, 102, 126-144
“Principals, Agents, and Indirect Foreign Policies” (with Eli Berman, David A. Lake, and Gerard Padró i Miquel), 2019, in Proxy Wars: Suppressing Violence through Local Agents, edited by Eli Berman and David A. Lake, Cornell University Press, 1-27
"Rising Government Debt: Causes and Solutions for a Decades-Old Trend," 2019, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33, 115-140
“Fiscal Rules and Discretion in a World Economy,” (with Marina Halac), 2018, American Economic Review, 108, 2305-2334
- Online Appendix
"Optimal Time-Consistent Government Debt Maturity," (with Davide Debortoli and Ricardo Nunes), 2017, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132, 55-102.
- Online Appendix
"A Note on Optimal Fiscal Policy in an Economy with Private Borrowing Limits," (with Marina Azzimonti), 2017, Economics Letters, 151, 62-65
"The Institutional Causes of China’s Great Famine, 1959-1961" (with Xin Meng and Nancy Qian), 2015, Review of Economic Studies, 82, 1568-1611.
"A Theory of Political and Economic Cycles" (with Laurence Ales and Pricila Maziero), 2014, Journal of Economic Theory, 153, 224-251
- Online Appendix
"Fiscal Rules and Discretion under Persistent Shocks" (with Marina Halac), 2014, Econometrica, 82, 1557-1614
- Online Appendix
"Public Debt under Limited Private Credit," 2013, Journal of the European Economic Association, 11, 229-245
"The Political Economy of Indirect Control" (with Gerard Padró i Miquel), 2012, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127, 947-1015
- Online Appendix
"A Dynamic Theory of Resource Wars" (with Daron Acemoglu, Michael Golosov, and Aleh Tsyvinski), 2012, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127, 283-331
- Online Appendix
"Political Limits to Globalization" (with Daron Acemoglu), 2010, American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings), 100, 83-88
"Future Renting-Seeking and Current Public Savings" (with Ricardo Caballero), 2010, Journal of International Economics, 82, 124-136
"A Dynamic Theory of War and Peace," 2010, Journal of Economic Theory, 145, 1921-1950
"Politicians, Taxes, and Debt," 2010, Review of Economic Studies, 77, 806-840
"Reevaluating the Modernization Hypothesis" (with Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson), 2009, Journal of Monetary Economics, 56(8), 1043-1058
"Income and Democracy," (with Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson), 2008, American Economic Review, 98(3),808-842.
"From Education to Democracy?" (with Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James A. Robinson), 2005, American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings), 95(2), 44-49
Working Papers
“Optimal Long-Run Inflation,” (with Hassan Afrouzi), 2024
"Global Hegemony and Exorbitant Privilege," (with Carolin Pflueger), 2025, revise and resubmit, Review of Financial Studies
Cases
“How to Fight Inflation: March 2022 FOMC Meeting” (with Nicolas Vincent), 2022, Columbia CaseWorks
“Into the Abyss and Back: COVID-19 and the Economy” (with Gabriele Martegiani and Nicolas Vincent), 2021, Columbia CaseWorks
“Responding to the Oil Industry Downturn: Challenges to Debt Restructuring in the UAE,” 2018, Columbia Caseworks
"Lehman Brothers: Too Big to Fail?" (with Jack Lysohir and Emi Nakamura), 2016, Columbia CaseWorks
“Standing at the Edge of a Cliff: GM at the Onset of the 2008 Financial Crisis,” (with Nicolas Vincent), 2014, Columbia CaseWorks
"The Obama Stimulus," 2014, Columbia CaseWorks
“The Solow Model Unleashed: Understanding Economic Growth” (with Nicolas Vincent), 2013, Columbia CaseWorks
Op-Eds and Media
“US Military Strength Secures Financial Dominance,” VoxEU, December 20, 2024
“America's Silent Crisis,” City Journal, October 29, 2024
“Yared on Headwinds for Central Banks,” Bloomberg Surveillance, June 20, 2024
“Changing Central Bank Pressures and Inflation,” (w/Hassan Afrouzi, Marina Halac, and Kenneth Rogoff) VoxEU, April 30, 2024
“What Global Factors Could Make Inflation Less Stable,” Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, March 23, 2024
“The Macroeconomic Environment: Navigating the Uncertainty,” PwC Pulse: A Business Podcast for Executives, July 13, 2023
“Democrats Can’t Wish the National Debt Away,” Wall Street Journal, June 3, 2019.
“Kicking the Can Down the Road,” American Economic Association Interview, December 6, 2019
“Nothing to Celebrate,” City Journal, February 1, 2018
“Five Ways to Fix the U.S. Job Market,” (w/Brett House), Fortune, March 7, 2014
“Trade and Militarism: The Political Limits to Globalisation,” (w/Daron Acemoglu), VoxEU, March 7, 2010
