Yangzijiang Financial Holding

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I attended the AGM today — and it was quite a spectacle.

A large number of shareholders took to the microphone to push for share buybacks. Even before the meeting, the outsourced IR team had received over 50 pre-AGM questions, more than 20 of which were repeated calls for buybacks. During the AGM itself, roughly half of the shareholders who spoke raised the same issue. Due to recurring themes, it was condensed to 16 questions, with even a later question making reference to Q5 which was YZJFH rebuttal against the merits of a share buyback

The core argument from shareholders was straightforward: a buyback would signal confidence in management, demonstrate belief in the underlying assets, and help address the persistent undervaluation.

Management, however, pushed back and outlined three key reasons why buybacks were not currently being considered:

1. Earnings impact – Buybacks do not increase absolute earnings and could affect their 40% payout ratio framework.
2. Portfolio concentration – Buybacks would reduce diversification by concentrating exposure within the existing portfolio.
3. Capital allocation strategy – Management believes China offers the best risk-adjusted returns. As such, they are holding significant cash in RMB to deploy into opportunities where they can acquire controlling stakes and take over management of Chinese companies.

Shareholders were quick to challenge these points. On the first argument, several highlighted that buybacks are earnings accretive on a per-share basis, which should support dividend growth. Comparisons were drawn to Hongkong Land, where the new CEO initiated buybacks to reflect confidence in the company’s assets. Others also pointed out that YZJFH itself conducted buybacks in 2023 — when CEO Liu Hua was already part of the management team — under similar undervaluation conditions.

After sustained pressure, management softened its stance slightly, stating they would consider buybacks if deemed an efficient use of excess cash. That said, their body language suggested continued hesitation. This even when shareholder mathematiclally showed there was a 80-90% uplift in NAV while buying into the company with core earnings of 10 times price earnings

Beyond buybacks, management reiterated their long-term strategy: deploying capital into private debt and acquiring equity stakes in distressed companies, with the goal of becoming controlling shareholders and influencing management.

On the topic of investing in Singapore equities, management clarified that their 4.5% return target refers to total shareholder return, not just dividend yield. While they acknowledge that SGX-listed REITs can deliver yields above 6%, these are viewed as short-term trading positions rather than core holdings. The intention is to recycle capital from such investments into higher-conviction opportunities aligned with their long-term strategy. They had achieved 4.5% returns in the past 4 months on an annualised basis

Operationally, management shared that in the first four months of 2026, they had liquidated approximately 15–20% of their China debt investments classified as non-performing loans, utilising a significant portion of the credit allowances previously set aside.

Shareholders also raised concerns about communication and governance. There were calls for more forward-looking guidance, in line with Singapore Exchange expectations. The AGM itself was poorly managed — the IR team spent nearly 30 minutes reading out pre-submitted Q&A that should have been disclosed beforehand via SGX announcements. Shareholders eventually interrupted this portion saying this should have been published earlier as pre-reading instead of them being read out during the AGM. Most SGX companies are doing this. Management acknowledged these shortcomings.

After nearly two hours of non-stop Q&A — largely centred on undervaluation and the case for buybacks — I left the meeting (along with several others) with the clear impression that management remains firmly committed to its current capital allocation stance.

Notably, management disclosed that up to RMB 1 billion of cash could be redeployed annually offshore with limited tax leakage under the SAFE framework — more than their SGD 616 million equivalent cash held in China. Despite this flexibility, they prefer to keep funds in RMB, citing expectations of RMB appreciation and a stronger opportunity set in China. The previously mentioned 50/50 China vs ex-China allocation is now a long-term aspiration with no fixed timeline.

In the interim, around 20% of this RMB 1 billion has been deployed into high-yielding Singapore assets, generating an annualised total shareholder return of approximately 4.5%.

Ultimately, as minority shareholders, we do not have control over YZJFH’s capital allocation decisions. For now, investors will have to accept management’s strategic direction. Based on current assumptions, the company could deliver around 3 cents in EPS, implying dividends in the range of 1.2–1.5 Singapore cents.
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Thanks CY09 for posting the proceedings.
YZJF got the shortest end of the stick after multiple spin offs.
The current low valuation is a clear indication of that.

But to put things into perspective, YZJ ship building was ard $1+ pre spin off, now it is $4+
YZJF was given free and trading at 30+cts for the longest time, now it is 67cts (marine) + 26cts(f)

If you consider the dividends + capital appreciation, YZJ is amongst the best if not the best performing blue chip stock for the past 10 years. I was quite lucky to be able to still have YZJ ship in our family portfolio. YZJF finance was loaded up when it was cheap and offloaded when it turned multi bagger/reached>fair value within short period of few years(pre marine spin off).
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If their hurdle rate for listed equities is 4.5%, simply repurchasing their own shares would easily clear that hurdle at current valuations. 

To be fair, they might want >4.5% total return AND diversification. But still, you need to be really into diversification to justify this capital allocation decision.
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My suspicion is that the management team is paid based on how much growth in fund profit and not NAV/EPS growth derived.

Similar to how a normal fund manager works- AUM and performance fee

Forgot to add one pointer during AGM

A shareholder questioned Chairman Ren’s earlier assertion that real estate collateral was close to 200% of loan principal, asking why Yangzijiang Financial Holding (YZJFH) is now recording such a large impairments. The CFO explained that property prices in China’s Tier 2–4 cities have fallen by around 70%, significantly eroding collateral values. In several cases, YZJFH took over unfinished projects, completed them, and attempted to sell the units, only to find that market prices had dropped sharply. Transactions in 2025 have since confirmed these lower valuations, necessitating impairments. They are recording impairments now because YZJFH plans not to keep holding the NPLs and are planning to liqudate it by mass selling the real estate collaterals.

The external auditor agreed with management’s assessment, stating that the impairments are reasonable given current market conditions in China’s real estate sector. Some non-performing loans saw lower impairments due to personal guarantees provided by developers’ owners (only a portion of YZJFH loan, for one instance the owner covered 40%).

I was surprised with these words, YZJFH CFO added in some areas the prices had dropped to an extent of 80%. Can't imagine if this happened in Singapore where HDB prices collapsed 70-80%
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The statements about the fall in prices is true and correct. My small bets on the best developers/pure china housing recovery did not pan out as planned. And things are likely to get worse before it gets better especially for lower tiered cities even after so many years of decline.

One can look at forest city to get a feel of what it is like. Massive over supply in many places where amenities/infrastructure/ connectivity to major cities and jobs is lacking. Just endless, massive blocks of housing, many uncompleted. My best guess is there are more apartments than people at this point.

I dont think the lowered tired cities can recover in the next few years as they were all fueled by speculative demand. Tier 1 cities will recover much faster. There is real demand for it.
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(30-04-2026, 12:50 PM)CY09 Wrote: My suspicion is that the management team is paid based on how much growth in fund profit and not NAV/EPS growth derived.

Similar to how a normal fund manager works- AUM and performance fee

Hi CY09,

One can review the remuneration section of the AR to see how Mgt is paid. In this case, we could look at both AR24 and AR25 for an idea. In essence, remuneration of the KMP (Key Mgt Personnel) are largely in salary (ie. fixed) with some having 100% of the remuneration in salary while some have ~10-15% variable bonus. In 2024, CFO Liu Hua's remuneration was 100% in salary. In 2025 as she transited to executive chairman, it was been changed to 75% salary/25% variable bonus. The factors affecting the variable bonus has not been revealed but in general, I would say that % variable bonus to total remuneration is on the low side.
I am not a certified financial advisor and so nothing of what I say should be construed as financial advice. Please consult a certified financial advisor for advice instead.
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(30-04-2026, 11:32 AM)Corgitator Wrote: If their hurdle rate for listed equities is 4.5%, simply repurchasing their own shares would easily clear that hurdle at current valuations. 

To be fair, they might want >4.5% total return AND diversification. But still, you need to be really into diversification to justify this capital allocation decision.

Hi Corgitator,

While (ex) Chairman Ren has left the show (and unfortunately did not turn up at the AGM), but CFO Liu Hua was part of the executive team that started the 200mil sharebuyback program few years ago. To recap over a period of 3 years (2022-2024), ~165mil sgd (or ~4% of equity) was spent to buy back ~11.9% of outstanding shares. Therefore, I do not think that the current Mgt team does not understand the merits of SBB.

From the AGM, the key word I got was optionality. That's a nice term but I suppose is also vague in many ways. (New) Chairwoman Liu Hua has explained that the current balance sheet has been cut by half due to the Maritime spin off and therefore not too comparable with 2-3years ago. They also believe there are potential good onshore opportunities where they can have "meaningful management control" (M&A and restructuring) and so I think I can appreciate that, especially I do not have the ability to see what they (believe) they are seeing. So the key questions are really if this new team have good vision? And then if their vision is right, are they able to capitalize on that?

On another note, the avg price/share paid by the FY22-24 SBB was 165mil/470mil shares ~ 35cents. In the spin-off, YZJFH took 47% of equity and so adjusting for the spin-off, we are talking about split adjusted price of 0.47*35cents ~ 16.5cents. So I suppose if I were them, I would think that history has not repeated itself sufficiently for SBB to get compelling. Smile
I am not a certified financial advisor and so nothing of what I say should be construed as financial advice. Please consult a certified financial advisor for advice instead.
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It has been some time since I looked at YZJFH's debt investments (DI) and expected credit losses (ECL) rate. And with the recent big increase in Stage 3 or its NPL ECL rates, I thought it will be good to take a closer look again.

P.S. Since YZJFH's reporting currency is SGD but functional currency is RMB, it is quite messy to accurately reconcile all the numbers with the translation losses. I have not done the translation losses' reconciliation and hence below figures are approximately right (at best).

Stage 3 or NPL gross DI (in 000'SGD)
FY21: 638,224
FY22: 1,141,897 (at end FY22, all NPL went to YZJSB's books and this NPL is exclusively reclassified from existing Stage1 loans)
FY23: 790,702 (est ~100mil Stage1/2 loans transferred to NPL but had much larger net liquidations with no credit losses utilized)
FY24: 674,773 (minimal transfers to NPL with net liquidations and recognized credit losses)
FY25: 685,080 (esti ~60mil Stage3 loans transferred to NPL)

Stage 3 or NPL ECL ratio
FY21: 42%
YZJSB FY22: 42%
YZJSB liquidation of NPL: 45%
FY22: 12.7% (these are new NPL onto YZJFH's loan book after YZJSB took away the previous entire NPL book at end FY21)
FY23: 17.3%
FY24: 20.7%
FY25: 63%

---------------

Comments:
- The last time there was a big NPL clean up was during the 2022 demerger. The old NPL kept on YZJSB's books had ECL rate of 42% for both FY21/FY22 and later disposed of at 55 cents to the dollar by 1H23 (or ECL ratio ~45%).

- After having the old NPL kept with YZJSB, YZJFH shifted ~1.4bil of DIs from Stage 1 to Stage 3 (or NPL) by end FY22. It assigned a 12.7% ECL ratio. This ECL ratio that gradually increased in the next few years while there was net NPL liquidations along the same period, with the gross Stage 3 DI getting smaller over time.

- By end FY25, the ECL was adjusted from 20.7% to a whopping 63%, even higher than the NPL loan kept by YZJSB (45%). It does seem that things have gotten considerably worst compared to let's say, 3 years ago.
I am not a certified financial advisor and so nothing of what I say should be construed as financial advice. Please consult a certified financial advisor for advice instead.
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This is indeed intriguing... anyone knows why the jump in ECL when the chinese property market is probably past its worst? Delayed recognition due to Maritime spinoff?
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward

Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
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CFO said property prices have fallen 70-80% compared to a few years back. The NPLs were real estate projects and they are struggling to offload the units to repay the debt. Manager cited one example of a wuxi city project (tier 2 city) where developer have difficulty selling the units

As to why a few of the projects have lower NPL ratios, this is because a portion of the debt is guaranteed by the owner.
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