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Investors dump stocks in mining services as miners slash costs
BY:CRITERION From: The Australian May 22, 2013 12:00AM
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Source: The Australian
WITH downgrades in the mining-services sector now as inevitable as mid-season hamstrings, investors have been selling on rumour and selling even more on fact.
The downgrade by Transfield Services (TSE, 97c) had been expected for days, but that didn't stop its shares tumbling 24 per cent. Ditto, Fleetwood Group (FWD, $5.65). Its shares fell 25 per cent even though the mining accommodation provider said late on Monday its caravan arm was OK and second-half profits would be slightly below the first half number. The stock was trading close to $10 in mid-April.
Boart Longyear (BLY, 78c) shares, which have been on the nose for months, rallied briefly after the global driller guided to the bottom end of broker expectations of $US199 million to $US271m.
There's a whiff of intrigue about engineer Monadelphous (MND, $16.60), which hasn't updated the market since February's declaration revenue growth would be "challenging".
This week Shaw Stockbroking and CLSA joined several other brokers in downgrading the former market fave to a sell, citing a suspicious dearth of new contract announcements. Monadelphous shares are down 40 per cent since February's comments, which followed record first-half earnings.
Everything has its price and we're willing to punt a spec buy on Monadelphous, Boart Longyear and Fleetwood stock being at -- or near -- that level.
Great Western Exploration (GTE) 19.5c
THE exploration food chain usually involves a major chipping into a small caps' promising project, but in this case Great Western is farming into Glencore Xstrata's Cunya copper-gold prospect in WA's Doolgunna region.
The five Cunya exploration licences expand Great Western's coverage from 780sq km to 3300sq km, in a region thought to be an extension of the geological belt hosting Sandfire's de Grussa copper mine. Great Western chief Jordan Luckett says Glencore is a producer rather than an explorer, with Xstrata acquiring the ground when it took over nickel producer Jubilee Mines.
Under the JV, Great Western can earn up to 70 per cent by spending $2.5m across five years. Glencore also can claw back to 80 per cent of the project by compensating Great Western three times its exploration costs when a compliant resource is established.
Luckett reasons that if any discovery is big enough for its partner to be interested in, Great Western wouldn't have the funds to back the project.
Great Westernologists believe the potential lies in Kazakhstan, where the company has partnered with national miner Tauken Samruk to explore 12,500sq km with eight known copper deposits and 350 known "occurrences". The ground was (inadequately) worked over by the Soviet Union before it ran out of roubles.
This JV allows Great Western to earn 50 per cent by contributing a maximum $US12.5m. Having finally procured a rig, the start of drilling is imminent.
Some wags reckon the best investment is to avoid going near any nation ending in "stan", especially one with Borat as its ambassador. Luckett says dealing with the bureaucracy is hard going. But he says they'll deal with him if only because he refuses to go away.
Great Western is a spec buy, on the proviso it needs to raise equity. Here's hoping director and holder Craig Mathieson can liberate his billionaire uncle Bruce's small change from the pokies.
Thorn Group (TGA) $2.26
THE consumer rental group's earnings aren't bounding ahead, but they're not retreating either. For CEO John Hughes that's good enough, given Thorn falls into the struggling "retail" category.
Investors were happy enough with an increased div and Hughes's explanation a full-year profits lull was the result of Thorn investing in its fledgling consumer and equipment lending businesses. The Radio Rentals arm is powering ahead.
In theory, Thorn should be the first to feel any uptick in consumer delinquencies, given those who rent furniture and TVs aren't exactly in the A-B quintile.
Hughes says while soaring utility bills are causing hardship, there's no uptick in bad debts.
Thorn, which listed seven years ago, is a rare example of a private equity spin-off that delivered. Hughes says there's "plenty more to come" and on the strength of that (and a decent yield) the stock is a buy.
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The Australian accepts no responsibility for stock recommendations. Readers should contact a licensed financial adviser. The author owns Boart Longyear shares.