2025 Investment Roundup: Our Successes and Missed Opportunities

[weijian]

The 3 musketeers from The Fifth Person (Adam, Rusmin and Victor) shared some decent stuff to round up 2024. And I hope all VBs, while mostly enjoying the year-end holidays will also take their time to round up their 2024 and improve for 2025.

Rusmin bought up about missing out on Costco due to valuation. If the emphasis is on valuation, it will be hard to "average upwards" and even harder to buy something for "double its price" as one will want to avoid looking like a fool in the future IF the market re-rates unfavorably (you bought Costco for 200dollars when you looked at it at 100dollars and now market has re-rated it to 150dollars. So rather than a 50% gain, you want to avoid looking like a fool for a 25% loss). The simple but not easy question is - what is an intelligent method to value Costco?

Wishing all VBs a peaceful and healthy time ahead.

2024 Investment Roundup: Our Successes and Missed Opportunities

In our final roundtable of the year, we look back on the most impactful investment insights and lessons we’ve gained in 2024. What stood out as the biggest investment theme of the year, and how did we position ourselves to benefit from it? Which new strategies and perspectives shaped our approach this year? And, of course, were there any stocks we regret not buying—or wish we had sold—before it was too late? Join us as we wrap up 2024 with a look back at the year’s successes and challenges in our final episode. Wishing you a fantastic end to the year, and we can’t wait to see you all again in 2025!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPAmbve304A

[dzwm87]

IMO, something is already wrong when the reflection is about "missing out on Costco due to valuation" when it's at 50x earnings. Sometimes, we need to have the discipline to walk away if it's too late else it's just a matter of chasing the price. Of course a lot more factors behind it and not so simplistic.

[weijian]

IMO, something is already wrong when the reflection is about "missing out on Costco due to valuation" when it's at 50x earnings. Sometimes, we need to have the discipline to walk away if it's too late else it's just a matter of chasing the price. Of course a lot more factors behind it and not so simplistic.

hi dzwm87,

If u watched the video, you would have noticed it is about been interested in purchasing Costco at P/E~30, but having doubts as it was simply a grocery business (nothing fanciful) before it gotten to "ATH" P/E~40 due to Covid. "ATHs" begets more "ATHs", and its market value has tripled.

I wouldn't want to argue whether "50x earnings" is expensive or not. But surely I wouldn't complain if a stock in my portfolio had reached such valuations (unfortunately, I don't have such a chance yet). Inverting that, I would surely reflect at such a missed opportunity to do better in future.

[weijian]

It is that time of the year to reflect upon our wins and losses - learning to celebrate both, as long as the losses are small enough to keep us in the game.

I wonder if VBs have experienced the epiphany described by Victor - (1) The more digging you do, the more you feel that you have seen this before. (2) The more investing you do, the more you know what you want to invest in.

Finally, the bull market has raged for a couple of years now. The S&P500 is on track for its 3rd consecutive year of double digit returns (or its 5th double digit return year out of the last 6). And in the last 2 years, both the STI and HSI have returned strongly at ~40-50% of cumulative returns, getting out of their slump that started since around 2018. Therefore, it is no surprise that "worst financial decisions" that most investors will be quoting now - are about missed opportunities (type 2 errors) than actual bad investments (type 1 errors).

Our Best and Worst Financial Decisions of 2025

In our final roundtable of the year, we look back at our best and worst financial decisions of 2025—the moves that worked, the ones that didn’t, and the lessons we’re taking forward. From smart investments that paid off to mistakes that challenged our assumptions. By sharing both our wins and missteps, we hope this helps you reflect on your own financial decisions, recognise common pitfalls, and build a financial/investment strategy that suits your goals and risk tolerance. All this and more in our latest episode!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJ5u_MbwsaA