Semiconductor Industry News

[weijian]

Generally, what follows after delays, are delays.

TSMC tells vendors to delay chip equipment deliveries, sources say

Suppliers currently expect the delay to be short-term, the sources said, declining to be named as the information is not public.

TSMC said it does not comment on what it called "market rumour".

https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-...023-09-15/

[weijian]

Cycle seems to be bottomed in the last 2 quarters. Start of a new cycle?

South Korea chip output jumps in sign of returning global demand

Chip production jumped 42 per cent in November from a year earlier, the most since early 2017, while shipments soared 80 per cent, the biggest gain since late 2002, according to data released on Thursday (Dec 28) from the national statistical office. Inventories expanded by 36 per cent in the smallest rise since February.

The numbers suggest that South Korea’s most important industry is roaring back from a slump that weighed on the economy for more than a year and add to optimistic signals for chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, two of the country’s biggest companies. The figures also suggest that a nascent recovery in global tech sector demand may be gaining momentum.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/interna...bal-demand

[weijian]

Without sharp recoveries, there will not be any more sharp drops. So maybe the notorious semiconductor cycle has finally been tamed! (till the day, everyone suddenly starts to ramp up orders again! )

ASML CEO sees slow chip recovery extending ‘well into 2025’

ASML Holding chief executive officer Christophe Fouquet said he expects the chip market’s long-awaited recovery will extend “well into 2025”, following disappointing third-quarter earnings that sparked a broad sell-off across the semiconductor industry.

“Today, without AI, the market would be very sad, if you ask me,” Fouquet said. “The recovery is not what I think everyone had wished for.”

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compani...-well-2025

[weijian]

In the last helium shortage (caused by a blockade against Qatar's output) back in 2017, I remembered there were plenty of helium usage reduction projects. So in every crisis, the participants learn to adapt to become more anti-fragile. Currently, participants probably have a longer leeway than previous. But this time around, the combined effects of these shortages may seriously push up the prices of data centers (whether operational or expansion) to the effect where hyperscalers start to pull back their plans one after another (like lemmings). Acute shortages can turn into abundant supply in just a few months. I don't like to overlearn too much from the last crisis but I think the last time it occurred was not too long ago in 2022.

The AI Supply Chain Runs Through a War Zone. Nobody in Silicon Valley Is Paying Attention.

Helium is the second most abundant element in the universe and one of the rarest on Earth's surface. It is produced by the radioactive decay of uranium and thorium deep in the planet's crust. It migrates upward through rock over billions of years and accumulates in the same geological traps that hold natural gas. You do not manufacture helium. You extract it as a byproduct of natural gas processing, or you do not have it.

QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi confirmed on March 24 that the missile strikes reduced helium output capacity by 14 percent, with repairs expected to take three to five years. The planned Helium 4 plant, targeting 1.5 billion standard cubic feet per year and over 50 percent engineered before the crisis, has no confirmed restart timeline.

One-third of the world's helium. Removed from the market by the same missile strikes that took out 17 percent of global LNG supply. From the same facility. In the same week.

In semiconductor fabrication, helium performs functions that are difficult or impossible to replicate with any other substance. Its most critical role is cooling silicon wafers during plasma etching.

https://x.com/veronken/status/2036759476351762812