Ultragreen.ai

[CY09]

What used to be a market in which Ultragreen.AI had almost the entire market share, the approval of a competitor drug by the FDA has plunged the valuation of the company by half.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compani...g-pressure

Its an interesting insight to how market valuations change from a "No competitor" to "There is a competitor" scenario. While the company has put a news release maintaining its full year forecast, its share buyback was only 0.01% of the trading volume, relative to other trading days where the company did sharebuy back, this was comparatively less. The company is net cash and still has a large amount of cash from its recent IPO exercise intact, over the past months, Ultragreen management has been doing share buybacks, let's see if the management walk the talk and continue its share buyback

<Not vested>

[weijian]

In the past 1 year, there has been a flurry of new IPOs on the SGX and UltraGreen.AI was one of the companies that pipped my interest to take a closer look at. But upon reading the prospectus, I realized it had nothing to do with AI as it was selling a medical dye whose chemical formula was invented by Kodak back in the 1950s. So there it was - the "first red flag".

But the fact that it was selling a perishable product with a small price tag (compared to the entire surgery process) and have a small TAM (total addressable market) ticked all the right boxes - recurring and sticky product where it will have an "efficient scale" moat - interested me to go deeper down the rabbit hole and kept monitoring it. Share price first rosed ~20-30% before it started to drop. And when it went below IPO price, company started SBBs (effectively covering its short!), while the CEO (whom sold shares in the IPO) and an ID also started to do some small open market purchases. That got me even more interested.

Now fast forward to today and a few research houses have just downgraded their target prices by more than half and added to the carnage. A few notes on the 2 competitors and their respective ICG product mentioned in the BT article:

Zydus Lifesciences: (a) The 4th largest Indian generic drug maker with annual revenue of 2.7bil USD (~50% of revenue derived from US). (b) They won FDA approval in early Aug2026 for its generic "Indocyanine Green for Injection, USP", ie. the same product UltraGreen was selling before it bought over IC-GREEN from Akorn Pharmaceuticals who went bankrupted in 2023. IC-GREEN was only re-introduced into the US last year by UltraGreen.AI. ( c) In the PR for the FDA approval of its ICG product, the CEO quoted "It also advances our goal of making essential medicines and diagnostics more accessible". A price war looks inevitable. Zydus Lifesciences's approved ICG product is manufactured in-house in India, while UltraGreen.AI contracts out the mfg in Europe. It is a matchup between David (UltraGreen.AI) and Goliath (Zydus Lifesciences). Goliath doesn't even need to make a profit on its ICG product if it wants to be serious to starve David.

Provepharm: (a) This is a niche French specialty pharm company, so it is the exact opposite of Zydus Lifesciences (in terms of size) but it is 100% focused on medical dyes for FGS (100% overlap in terms of bread and butter). (b) Unlike "Indocyanine Green for Injection, USP" which is a powder form sold to hospitals and has to be mixed with sterile water before actual use, its ICG product Zyogreen is a ready-to-use (RTU) liquid. ( c) To use RTU for ICG, workflows have to change and so this is 1 major barrier towards adoption for hospitals. But yet at the same time, RTU ICG offers advantages like workflow simplification, elimination of human errors in the pre-mixing and lower contamination risks. Finally, factory made RTU ICG in liquid form eliminates the subtle variation in ICG dye concentration, and sets the base for better quantitative perfusion metrics for the various NIR cameras/software moving forward. (d) In UK, Zyogreen secured approval in April2026 and started commercial launch in July2026. In US, Zyogreen secured FDA approval in July 2026 and has partnered Sagent Pharmaceuticals to do the distribution. Commercial launch is probably in late 2026.

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The share price drop below IPO price and subsequent purchases by the company/insiders got me "really interested". When the share price dropped a third after the BT article came out, I was hooked. But after looking up the 2 competitors and their products, all interest has been extinguished. On hindsight, I was glad that I acknowledged my own ignorance - higher GPMs and improving sales (abeit largely coming from price raises), but share price was dropping - Mr Market knows more than me.

[CY09]

Hi weijian, thanks for the competitors analysis and thoughts. Seems like your analysis is much better than the amount of effort taken by a temasek subsidiary who was part of a SGD$200 million at US$1.30 per share

[weijian]

Temasek's 65 Equity Partners is a PE firm with a variety of strategies - taking listed companies private via MBO (Mgt Buy out), late stage venture capital and pre-IPO investing. For UltraGreen.ai, they took on the role as pre-IPO investors as the prospectus revealed that all pre-IPO minorities including 65 Equity Partners took up their initial stakes only in Sept2025, before the company IPO-ed in early Dec 2025. Before the minorities took up their stakes, it was 100% owned by the vendor (CEO).

Therefore, fair comparison can only be made based on the information in the period in late 2024 to mid 2025 (estimated to be the due diligence timeline of these pre-IPO investors) and not along the course of 2026 when FDA approvals for their rival products have been progressively achieved. The real hero should be the independent analyst Jamal Aliyev. I hoped he had monetized his research well (eg. selling them to short sellers) with BT been utilized as the distribution channel. I hope no BT journalists will be reprimanded by their bosses in future!

On another note, it is comical to see DBS Group Research publishing glowing notes on 17th Aug with a target price of 1.95usd, the defining BT article coming out on 19th Aug and then the same research house cutting the target price by more than half to 0.80usd. Mr Market is a true Humiliator but credit also has to be given to DBS Group Research for changing their mind when the facts change.

UltraGreen.ai’s big slump: Was it the Singapore market that failed the company, or vice versa?

[SINGAPORE] During the National Day weekend, an independent analyst named Jamal Aliyev sent an e-mail to some of my colleagues and me to draw our attention to research he had just published about UltraGreen.ai. Aliyev had identified two companies – Zydus Lifesciences and Provepharm – that may soon begin competing with UltraGreen.ai in the supply of indocyanine green (ICG) dye in the US. He also pointed out that UltraGreen.ai had made no disclosures about the recent regulatory approvals these potential competitors had obtained in that key market.

My colleague Benjamin Cher eventually set about doing the necessary legwork for a story, which included verifying certain facts, engaging Aliyev and other analysts, and asking UltraGreen.ai for comment. By the time his story was published last week – on Aug 19, in the afternoon – the possibility of UltraGreen.ai’s core business facing new competitors had arguably been carefully weighed by analysts and the company itself. Yet, after the story was published, UltraGreen.ai’s share price went into a tailspin, falling 44.8 per cent over the next two days. Its shares closed Friday (Aug 21) at US$0.635 – down 49.6 per cent for the week, and 57.9 per cent lower since the beginning of the year.

In a note dated Aug 17, DBS Group Research said that UltraGreen.ai was well-placed to defend its market share, and that the adoption of ICG fluorescence imaging across a broader range of surgical procedures could partly offset the impact of a more competitive landscape. The research house noted that the company was expanding into new geographies, and that its quantification platform would further entrench its market position.

While DBS warned that UltraGreen.ai’s sales volume and average selling price (ASP) in the US should be closely watched, it maintained a “buy” recommendation on its shares with a target price of US$1.95. However, in a subsequent note on Aug 21, DBS said that it was maintaining its earnings forecasts for UltraGreen.ai but offered a range of estimates for the company’s 2027 earnings, based on different assumptions for its ICG sales volume and ASPs.

According to these alternative estimates, DBS cut its recommendation on UltraGreen.ai’s shares to “hold” and more than halved its price target to US$0.80.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinion...vice-versa

[weijian]

Before publishing its 17th Aug article, BT asked UltraGreen.ai for a response but it gave a relatively muted one. But with the big share price reaction, the CEO has deemed it necessary to give a "CEO update".

Most of the revenue growth in the past few years (those stretching as far back to what the IPO prospectus revealed) were largely driven by a surge in surgeries as a result of the covid backlog and price increases, with 1H26 average selling price slightly doubled compared to FY22. This 2 tailwinds are now replaced by competitive headwinds in the future. Unlike B2C where the consumer is immensely flickle minded, B2B selling is indeed more sticky. But been a noob in the pharma industry, I wonder how easy is it to change the supply for a generic product (that isn't mission critical but only considered high value) in the surgery procedure.

CEO UPDATE TO SHAREHOLDERS

Competition is not new to us. We recognise the recent regulatory approvals obtained by new entrants in the US ICG market have generated concerns among shareholders. FDA approval is an important regulatory milestone, but does not, in itself, indicate commercial launch, customer adoption or market penetration.

Our commercial response will be calibrated to how new entrants ultimately come to market, including their pricing, distribution approach and customer proposition. Until those commercial plans become clearer, we believe it would be premature to speculate on their potential market impact or the specific actions UltraGreen may take in response.

Our position today was built deliberately – not simply around the supply of ICG, but around the broader fluorescence-guided surgery ecosystem. We have invested in relationships with surgeons and key opinion leaders, supported teaching institutions and clinical research, helped expand the adoption of fluorescence-guided surgery, and established a strong manufacturing and supply track record.

Surgery is a high-stakes environment where safety, reliability, clinical track record and familiarity matter. We believe these capabilities represent meaningful competitive advantages and have contributed to UltraGreen establishing and strengthening its position as the market has developed.

I remain confident in UltraGreen's long-term strategy, competitive position and prospects. I have been purchasing shares in UltraGreen and intend to continue increasing my personal investment in the Company. I believe this demonstrates my confidence in the long-term value and prospects of the business and aligns my interests even more closely with those of our shareholders.”

https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/UltraGree...eID=902077

[weijian]

Since I don't think share buybacks (SBB) is about supporting (or increasing) the share price, I disagree with BT Ben Paul's suggestion that the company should ditch its current SBB. At its current SBB prices, it is equivalent to purchasing an asset (but in this case, a portion of its own business) with ROIC~50% economics at ~10x FY26 earnings (or 10% earnings yields). At this levels of ROICs and earnings yield, quantitatively it is buying a great asset at a great price isn't it? But of course, this is all on theory because Mr Market's current practice suggests that "earnings", the number that derives the high ROIC/earnings yield, is not holding up in future.

Ultragreen.AI already dominates the ICG dye market and so it is using capital raised from IPO proceeds to expand horizontally into accompanying software for FGS (Florescence Guided Surgery) procedure market. But I suppose there is "excess capital" for it to reinvest into its existing ICG dye business via SBBs, especially if it believes that its earnings can be defended in the future.

So if the TAM for ICG expands sufficiently to offset downsides from any price war between the incumbent and new participants, the current SBB will turn out to be very lucrative (and EPS accretive) for shareholders in the future.

‘Show me’ market: UltraGreen.ai should ditch its share buybacks for proactive engagement

[SINGAPORE] As shares of UltraGreen.ai tumbled last month amid concerns of looming competition in its key market, the company has sharply increased the pace of its share buybacks. The acceleration in the company’s share buybacks came as it sought to calm investors in the wake of a Business Times story about Zydus Lifesciences and Provepharm possibly competing with it in the supply of indocyanine green (ICG) dye in the US.

The nervousness doesn’t appear to have been assuaged, though. At the close of trading on Tuesday (Sep 8), UltraGreen.ai had slipped back down to US$0.635 – the 52-week closing low it hit on Aug 21.

Given the “show me” attitude of investors right now, perhaps UltraGreen.ai should shelve its share buybacks and focus squarely on realising the growth expectations that supported the US$1.45 per share valuation at which it came to market.

The problem is that investors are already speculating about how the ICG market in the US will be affected by the potential new entrants. Instead of pursuing share buybacks, the company should engage investors more aggressively and try to take control of the narrative about the evolving competitive landscape in which it operates. Such proactive dialogue may not be required under the listing rules, and it may do little in the short term to boost the company’s share price. But it could demystify the industry in which UltraGreen.ai operates, and build confidence in the operational and financial outlook for the company that gradually turns opportunistic traders into patient investors.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinion...engagement

[CY09]

Ultragreen stopped its share buybacks on 3 September, four market days before the article was published. Since then, its share price has fallen by 12%. In contrast, during the periods when the company was conducting buybacks, the share price remained relatively stable following the initial plunge.

While I understand that writing and publishing an article takes time, it seems that BT was too slow to act. By the time the article was published, the action it prescribed had already been taken by the company, with the subsequent market reaction producing a rather poor result, as reflected in the share price

[weijian]

Doing a simple back calculation, 4Q revenue is going to be less than 43.2mil (175mil - 131.8mil) and so this implies that 3Q26 revenue is going to be its ATH. Nonetheless, kudos to Mgt for filing the Mgt Q&A transcript (for ease of access) as not many SGX listed firms actually do so.

US channel customers (distributors) are now asking for price reductions. In response, Ultragreen.AI has re-introduced their generic ICG offering and this will cannibalize the demand for their branded product (IC-GREEN).

Outside of US, Mgt expects continued growth and so the threat from Provepharm is not as forthcoming as what is happening in US. This make sense since Provepharm requires a different hospital workflow.

UltraGreen.ai Reports Revenue Growth for 9M2026; Updates FY2026 Outlook Amid Evolving US Competitive Landscape

Notwithstanding the year-on-year growth, the United States operating environment has become more challenging following the entry of additional indocyanine green ("ICG") products, resulting in increasing pricing pressure and changes in customer purchasing patterns. These developments are expected to weigh on revenue in the fourth quarter of 2026. The Group now expects FY2026 revenue to be below its previous guidance of US$175–185 million.

Looking ahead to FY2027, the Group expects the US business to remain under pressure as the full-year effects of these competitive developments become more apparent. These factors are expected to weigh on US revenue and profitability, notwithstanding ongoing measures to defend market share and manage costs.

Outside the United States, the Group expects continued growth, supported by further market expansion and the broader commercialisation of its fluorescence-guided surgery platform.

Competition in the US ICG market has increased following regulatory approvals and the commercial introduction of additional products, including those from Zydus Lifesciences and Provepharm. UltraGreen has relaunched its own generic ICG offering through major channel partners, providing a competitively priced option alongside its established IC-GREEN branded product.

9M26 PR: https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/UltraGree...eID=909662
9M26 ppt: https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/UltraGree...eID=909663
Investor/Analyst transcript: https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/UltraGree...eID=909680

[weijian]

AR Capital (announced as an EQDP mgr in Nov2025) interviewed the UltraGreen.ai CEO, a self professed serial entrepreneur. When questioned about the competitive landscape, the CEO repeated the names and themes that were found in the prospectus (I had thoroughly read it). Below is an excerpt of his reply that he repeated 1-2x (in italics with emphasis mine):

the real edge comes from the fact that we are approved in 40 countries today and we'll keep adding approvals. Once we get approved in a country, nobody else can enter unless they have the same approval process in place, and that's going to be our competitive moat for a while

This interview was done in March2026. And in just around 4 months, Zydus announced that they had secured approval to launch the same chemical formulae product...

Fireside Chat with UltraGreen.ai – Education Series | 02

As part of our ongoing Education Series with AR Capital, SGX Stock Exchange co-hosted an exclusive fireside chat featuring UltraGreen.ai, a global leader in fluorescence guided surgery (FGS) and digital health solutions.

Building on previous sessions that spotlighted innovative, high growth companies, this conversation featured Mr Ravinder Sajwan, CEO and Executive Director of UltraGreen.ai. He shared insights into the company’s growth strategy, technology-driven innovation, and outlook within the evolving global healthcare landscape.

The discussion was moderated by Merrill Tan, Executive Director for Equity Research at AR Capital, together with Yen Min Chu, Global Healthcare Analyst at AR Capital, and covered:

 UltraGreen.ai’s strategic growth roadmap
 Product innovation and market opportunities
 Long-term value creation in healthcare technology

The session concluded with an interactive Q&A, offering participants the opportunity to engage directly with management.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyjH_aHqSjU

P.S. At least I know that the "ai" in the company's name meant "augmentation of intelligence".

[weijian]

The ICG market is relatively small and once a competitor (Akorn Pharmaceuticals, a generic drug maker) goes bankrupt, you are able to freely charge higher prices from 2023 onwards. Your distributors had little choice and simply had to take those price increases. Now, competition is back in the form of another generic drug maker who is many times bigger and probably has a smaller cost base too. The same distributors who had to take those price increases for the past few years, are now doing payback by asking Ultragreen.ai for lower prices. Cosmic justice?

CEO Ravinder Sajwan, a self professed serial entrepreneur, has more than de-risked himself from Ultragreen.ai. Based on the prospectus:

(1) Paid out 74mil usd dividends + repay 19mil usd shareholder loan from FY22-IPO date)
(2) Pre-IPO sale to 65 Equity Partners, Vitruvian Partners LLP and Mr Kwa Chong Seng for total 183mil usd in Sept2025
(3) Received ~234mil usd from vendor sale share during Nov2025 IPO

UltraGreen.ai shares look very depressed, but it’s hard to know whether they’ve hit rock bottom

UltraGreen.ai probably still has more work to do winning over investors. Since its Q3 update, its shares have tumbled nearly 30 per cent. One reason for the scepticism may be that the company initially seemed to downplay the impact of increased competition in the ICG space. In fact, it was not UltraGreen.ai’s management that first flagged the emerging competition from Zydus and Provepharm, but an independent analyst named Jamal Aliyev.

As its share price sank precipitously on the news in August, the company affirmed its revenue guidance for 2026 and bought back its shares.

Its shares did not stop falling, though. UltraGreen.ai now has a market cap of just US$439.6 million, or 5.6 times its annualised H1 2026 net profit.

At the point of its listing in December, following an initial public offering at US$1.45 per share, it was valued at US$1.6 billion, or 31.2 times its annualised H1 2025 net profit.

At its current share price, the US$30 million share buyback programme announced last week could mop up 75 million shares from the market – equivalent to 72.5 per cent of the 103.4 million new shares the company sold to investors at its IPO.

A further 8.6 million vendor shares were sold as part of the offering. On top of that, the vendor sold 163.8 million shares to cornerstone investors.

All in, investors stumped up US$400 million buying UltraGreen.ai shares when it went public – nearly equivalent to its entire market cap now. The net proceeds were estimated to be US$377.1 million, after costs of US$22.9 million. UltraGreen.ai’s share of those costs was estimated to be US$8.2 million.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinion...ock-bottom