GL Limited (formerly: Guoco Leisure)

[cfa]

GL price hit 0.92 this morning.

[heifien91]

http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listcone...423861.pdf

Offer has just been revised to HK$100.

[Kelvin]

any news today?

[cfa]

Heavy selling with very high vol. this morning, any bad news ?

---

http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listcone...423861.pdf

Offer has just been revised to HK$100.

But market is trading at 92/93 , below the offer price of 100.00 ???

[greengiraffe]

Share price still way below the valuations. However, the main question lies in the intention of Quek - how he is going to unlock value at G Leisure.

There were angmos in the stock that blocked the previous GO at S$1.25 moons ago - even they have also given up. Quek is firmly in control so he can always bite his time. Even after he passes on, there will be junior Queks running the show and perhaps the value will remain there...


The valuation report for Guoco Group has been released yesterday.

We have extracted the valuation reports for the assets of GuocoLeisure,

Based on the valuation report, the fair value of Guocoleisure’s UK hotel assets and Molakai development properties as at 31 Jan 2013 is S$1.9b, which is S$300m (13%) below our SOTP valuation.

We are currently reviewing our recommendation and target price.
As per valuation report
GBP$m US$m S$m S$ per share Comments
Hotel 890 1,380 1,701 1.28 As per valuation report
Development property 202 253 0.19 As per valuation report

Oil & gas royalty 367.74 459.67 0.35 UOB’s DCF valuation
Casino 54.90 68.63 0.05 as per B/S on 30 June 2012
Trade and receivables 78.60 98.25 0.07 as per B/S on 30 June 2012
Cash 19.50 24.38 0.02 as per B/S on 30 June 2012
Less liabilities (522.30) (652.88) (0.49) as per B/S on 30 June 2012
SOTP valuation 1,581 1,951 1.47



Thanks

Regards

Loke Chunying
UOB Kay Hian Research
DID: +65-6590 6637
Email: [email protected]

[l0nEr]

Anybody with the full UOB report?

http://www.hkex.com.hk/eng/csm/ShowNews....291265.pdf
Based on the Valuation report page 52, the Reassessed NAV of Guoco Group is HKD166.9, while the Reassessed Tangible NAV is HKD142.0. At the current trading price of HKD92.65 and offer price of HKD100.00, it implies a 44% discount and 40% discount to the NAV, respectively.

Assuming that the UOB analyst's computations are correct, and putting a similar 40% discount to the NAV of SGD1.47, Guocoleisure should trade around SGD0.882 (which coincidentally is today's closing price).

still got value????
But if betting on privatization, i wonder if he will offer any higher than 40% discount to NAV for Guocoleisure.

[greengiraffe]

Momentum analysts blur liao... reviewing recommendations...

Anyway, with Guoco Holdings trading at below HK$100, it seems as though arbitragers can accumulate and trigger the HK$100 alternative.

Who knows after almost 4 months of accumulation, the invisible admirer may have sizable amount to enable Quek to successfully delist 53.HK.

Following which, Quek can then slowly plan his move on the components...

Anybody with the full UOB report?

http://www.hkex.com.hk/eng/csm/ShowNews....291265.pdf
Based on the Valuation report page 52, the Reassessed NAV of Guoco Group is HKD166.9, while the Reassessed Tangible NAV is HKD142.0. At the current trading price of HKD92.65 and offer price of HKD100.00, it implies a 44% discount and 40% discount to the NAV, respectively.

Assuming that the UOB analyst's computations are correct, and putting a similar 40% discount to the NAV of SGD1.47, Guocoleisure should trade around SGD0.882 (which coincidentally is today's closing price).

still got value????
But if betting on privatization, i wonder if he will offer any higher than 40% discount to NAV for Guocoleisure.

[Drizzt]

i realise that they are not attributing much value to the land bank they have. i assume that the land is a difficult situation. could it have been otherwise?

[Stocker]

most of the hotels could be under conservation properties.

Is this the reason for the values of their lands as highlighted by cfa ?

[greengiraffe]

Hawaii - with exception of gateway Honolulu, big Island is so huge that not many live there. It used to be a ranch and that speaks of the resale value.

As for the Fijian land, the angmo bloke probably used corporate money to buy a beach land from private enjoyment and that got passed on as well.

G Leisure inherited it from the former Brierley Investments and corporate raider Sir Ron Brierley handed down the legacy.

most of the hotels could be under conservation properties.

Is this the reason for the values of their lands as highlighted by cfa ?