Geo Energy Resources

[Coco]

@Squirrel: Note your point about investing in lithium miners. Me too, such as Lake Resources, Liontown Resources, etc, all on ASX. What about you ?

[Squirrel]

@Squirrel: Note your point about investing in lithium miners. Me too, such as Lake Resources, Liontown Resources, etc, all on ASX. What about you ?

I believe we are veering off topic and might get lashed at by weijian. Gonna close this off by saying that yes I am invested in Australia listed lithium juniors.

[LionFlyer]

Will not invest in anything that directly harms human lives or sin (gambling) companies.

Are wine and beer beverage (Diageo, PR, AB InBev) considered sin stocks? Do you see landlords as leechers (Capitaland, REITS) that a perpetuating a vicious property cycle and preying on business owners? Do you see big oil (Chevron, Shell) as harming the environment and therefore the future?

I guess the question is how strict or loose you want to define your investment thesis versus your beliefs. You have a choice.


edit: I am vested in golden energy. this is not the right thread to discuss this

[Squirrel]

Will not invest in anything that directly harms human lives or sin (gambling) companies.

Are wine and beer beverage (Diageo, PR, AB InBev) considered sin stocks? Do you see landlords as leechers (Capitaland, REITS) that a perpetuating a vicious property cycle and preying on business owners? Do you see big oil (Chevron, Shell) as harming the environment and therefore the future? 

I guess the question is how strict or loose you want to define your investment thesis versus your beliefs. You have a choice.


edit: I am vested in golden energy. this is not the right thread to discuss this

Yes I agree, it depends on individuals. I am not vested in most of the above you have listed coincidentally (except in property).

There is value in just how coal price is moving, and evidently so from recent moves. Not to brag but I expected these from a while back due to tracking coal price closely due to other reasons. It’s a deliberate choice not to invest in these. Congrats to holders though. And hopefully you will recycle the profits into more environmentally friendly endeavors, and that’s just my personal opinion.

Good to hear from people’s posts and it’s probably good to go back to the merits of this company.

[weijian]

The coal bonzana of 2022 is gone. But Geo Energy Mgt flags that coal demand is still expected to stay strong in the next few years.

Geo Energy Resources Limited Consolidated Financial Statements For the Year Ended 31 December 2023

The coal market has remained strong since 2021. With Indonesia ramping up its production and achieving a record coal output of 775.2 million tonnes during the period1 , global constraints on coal supply gradually alleviated, resulting in normalisation of coal prices with ICI4 averaging US$62.96 per tonne in 2023 (2022: US$86.06 per tonne). At the same time, there was growing demand from China, which recorded a 61.8% surge in its coal imports with an all-time high of 474.4 million tonnes in 2023.

Furthermore, India is expected to increase its coal imports to 186 million tonnes in 2024 and 193 million tonnes in 2025, up from 150 million tonnes in 2023. This growth is mainly fuelled by rising industrial use and higher electricity use in the consumer sector3. Coal for non-power consumption is also expected to increase over the next three years in developing nations, primarily driven by increasing nickel production in Indonesia.

Despite the European Union’s push for decarbonisation, the infrastructure for alternate sources of energy remains a key point of concern. Therefore, several European countries have decided to pushback their coal phaseout targets by several years due to the inadequate replacement plans and concerns over cost-effectiveness, as highlighted at the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (“COP28”)4. With the growing demand in the ASEAN region and the pushback in decarbonisation plans, demand for coal is expected to remain strong in the next few years.

https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Geo%20-%2...eID=789998

[weijian]

In the last coal bonanza (2021-2022), Geo Energy gave out the majority of profits in the form of dividends, with a small portion been allocated to share buybacks (SBB). By the end of the boom, it bought back ~2% of total outstanding shares for ~7mil usd. These shares were mainly purchased between 20-40cents range.

Before the current SBB that commenced in July2026, the company has done the below share placements:

- April2026: raised ~18.5mil sgd at 52.5cents
- March2026: raised ~15mil sgd at 42.5cents
- 2024: Placed out treasury shares and raised ~13mil sgd at 47.5cents avg price

In March2026, the company raised substantial new equity by selling shares at 42.5cents but is now buying some of them back at prices ~15-20% higher than what it sold 3 months ago. This doesn't really pass the simple smell test. For the 2nd 2026 tranche of equity fund raising in April2026, it was similarly able to raise equity at prices 15-20% higher just within 1 month. So I suppose equity (and maybe coal) prices do change really fast.

Geo Energy Commences Share Buyback Program, Underscoring Confidence in its Strong Business Fundamentals and Long-Term Prospects

On 7 July 2026, the Company commenced its new share buyback program in accordance with the share buyback authority approved by shareholders, with a first purchase of 637,500 shares from the open market, representing approximately 6.7% of the 9,410,100 shares traded for the day, at an average price of S$0.519.

• The above share buyback marks the start of a series of share buybacks that the Group intends to undertake in the near future.

• The share buyback reflects the undervalued nature of our current share price particularly given that the Group is on the cusp of commencing operations at the Group’s transformational asset, PT Marga Bara Jaya (“MBJ”) Integrated Infrastructure. . The Group had previously signed a term sheet and continues to be in discussions with Resource Invest AG to finalise a substantial investment in MBJ at a valuation of US$1.5 billion.

https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Media%20R...eID=895632

[weijian]

Giving a profit guidance for 3Q26 before 3Q (end Sept) is up, you can't get more "aggressive" guidance behavior (compared to other SGX listed co). I know it is only a few days left before the accountants start their overnight shifts, but it seems like the Mgt of Geo Energy can't wait.

Geo Energy Expects a Substantial Increase in Net Profit for 3Q2026 with Higher Sales Volumes, Higher Selling Prices and Significant Logistics Cost Savings from MBJ; Finalising ResInvest’s Investment in MBJ with Valuation of US$1.5 Billion

• Sales volume broadly matching 1H2026 total - The Group delivers a significant increase in coal sales volume of approximately 3.3 million tonnes in 3Q2026, which is close to the 3.6 million tonnes sold in the previous two quarters, 1Q2026 and 2Q2026 combined.

• Higher coal prices - The average Indonesian Coal Index Price for 4,200 GAR (“ICI4”) was approximately US$76 per tonne in September 2026, almost US$20 per tonne higher than the average of US$58.13 per tonne in 1H2026.

• Lower operating costs - The utilisation of PT Marga Bara Jaya (“MBJ”) infrastructure (road and jetty) has significantly reduced the operational cash costs by approximately US$11 per tonne on the tonnage delivered through MBJ.

• Substantial increase in net profit – Higher sales volumes, combined with higher selling prices and significant logistics cost savings per tonne from the MBJ infrastructure resulted in substantial increase in the Group’s profit margin per tonne and net profit.

https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Geo_MR_Pr...eID=905191