Posts: 1,514
Threads: 29
Joined: Jan 2013
Reputation:
33
(19-02-2025, 01:53 PM)ksir Wrote: (24-12-2023, 12:42 PM)Wildreamz Wrote:
Adam Khoo is done with Chinese stocks after news of the latest round of gaming crackdown.
Quote:ksir Wrote:[url=https://www.valuebuddies.com/post-170008.html#pid170008][/url]
Surely a good sign of undervalued country specific market! Haha.
It is getting easier to shoot in the barrel!
To recap, it was just a year + 2mths ago when the mood was so negatives and investors were done with their chinese stocks.
Back then Tencent was about HKD275.
Now it's almost back HKD500.
To be fair, this post could be a sign of optimistism and signal of top  if you are into reading the tea leave in the cup.
To me, I'm still waiting for 888 (this year), to consider parting with this partner.
<vested, my top holding, full biased>
Haven't been in Chinese stocks since 2021, when I sold my last bit of Baba, and Tencent since 2018. Easier to invest in a more Adam Smith-esque free market environment IMHO 
If you are into predicting mood and reading tea leaves, I think the true test was back in late 2022, 20th Congress, that was really a doozy.
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
Posts: 279
Threads: 9
Joined: May 2012
Reputation:
11
I've been a Tencent shareholder for the past 3–4 years and recently organised my thoughts into a concise investment write-up. Coincidentally, the stock has been under pressure lately, making it a timely opportunity to revisit the business.
Summary: AI is Tencent’s large opportunity and could revitalise growth across Tencent’s ecosystem. Tencent has the strongest foundations in China for an AI agent. We conservatively project Tencent’s earnings to grow in the mid-teens over the next five years. We believe market concerns on AI eroding Tencent and Weixin’s dominance are misplaced. Recent share price pullback provides long-term shareowners a comfortable entry point to participate in AI-driven upside.
If you're interested, you can read the full write-up here: https://greatcompounders.substack.com/p/...irect=true
If you find the research useful, I'd be grateful if you subscribe for future write-ups.
Posts: 4,748
Threads: 110
Joined: Aug 2011
Reputation:
89
(30-07-2026, 05:42 PM)Choon Wrote: I've been a Tencent shareholder for the past 3–4 years and recently organised my thoughts into a concise investment write-up. Coincidentally, the stock has been under pressure lately, making it a timely opportunity to revisit the business.
Summary: AI is Tencent’s large opportunity and could revitalise growth across Tencent’s ecosystem. Tencent has the strongest foundations in China for an AI agent. We conservatively project Tencent’s earnings to grow in the mid-teens over the next five years. We believe market concerns on AI eroding Tencent and Weixin’s dominance are misplaced. Recent share price pullback provides long-term shareowners a comfortable entry point to participate in AI-driven upside.
If you're interested, you can read the full write-up here: https://greatcompounders.substack.com/p/...irect=true
If you find the research useful, I'd be grateful if you subscribe for future write-ups.
Coincidentally, the recent pull-back (together with AGT Partners regarding Tencent as a "great compounder") pipped me take an in-depth look at Tencent.
Rather than opportunity, isn't Mr Market also pricing in AI as Tencent's largest risk too? First, Tencent's consumer facing AI chatbot Yuanbao is only number 4 after Bytedance's Doubao (1st), Alibaba's Qwen (2nd) and Deepseek (3rd). Yuanbao's DAU is ~2.5x smaller than Doubao and while this doesn't mean Tencent can't catch up but I would think odds are stacked against it because its competitors are no pushovers. Next in terms of AI infrastructure/cloud offering, it is at number 3 behind leader Alibaba-Aliyun and Huawei. Tencent Cloud's market share is similarly at least 2x smaller than leader Aliyun's, but this B2B business is probably more sticky and TAM should grow big enough for the top few players to all prosper together.
I am not a certified financial advisor and so nothing of what I say should be construed as financial advice. Please consult a certified financial advisor for advice instead.
Posts: 703
Threads: 9
Joined: Oct 2011
Reputation:
17
There is still no clear path to market leadership for B2C AI. For now, Bytedance has the advantage of being a private-listed company to control their narrative. The cost of running Doubao is huge given the token burn and there is still no clear monetisation strategy. Their DAU declined the moment they introduced a paid subscription model this year. That being said, DAU may not even be the right metric to look at for AI companies. Sell-side so far extrapolates and thinks that Doubao can be the new gateway (over Weixin) for consumers but those are really two different apps used by the consumers.
How this plays out will depend on how Tencent incorporates agentic features into Weixin. From past track record (e.g. payments, short form video, etc), they won't be the first but will at least make sure they execute well for it.
"Criticism is the fertilizer of learning." - Sir John Templeton
Posts: 279
Threads: 9
Joined: May 2012
Reputation:
11
(03-08-2026, 08:48 AM)weijian Wrote: (30-07-2026, 05:42 PM)Choon Wrote: I've been a Tencent shareholder for the past 3–4 years and recently organised my thoughts into a concise investment write-up. Coincidentally, the stock has been under pressure lately, making it a timely opportunity to revisit the business.
Summary: AI is Tencent’s large opportunity and could revitalise growth across Tencent’s ecosystem. Tencent has the strongest foundations in China for an AI agent. We conservatively project Tencent’s earnings to grow in the mid-teens over the next five years. We believe market concerns on AI eroding Tencent and Weixin’s dominance are misplaced. Recent share price pullback provides long-term shareowners a comfortable entry point to participate in AI-driven upside.
If you're interested, you can read the full write-up here: https://greatcompounders.substack.com/p/...irect=true
If you find the research useful, I'd be grateful if you subscribe for future write-ups.
Coincidentally, the recent pull-back (together with AGT Partners regarding Tencent as a "great compounder") pipped me take an in-depth look at Tencent.
Rather than opportunity, isn't Mr Market also pricing in AI as Tencent's largest risk too? First, Tencent's consumer facing AI chatbot Yuanbao is only number 4 after Bytedance's Doubao (1st), Alibaba's Qwen (2nd) and Deepseek (3rd). Yuanbao's DAU is ~2.5x smaller than Doubao and while this doesn't mean Tencent can't catch up but I would think odds are stacked against it because its competitors are no pushovers. Next in terms of AI infrastructure/cloud offering, it is at number 3 behind leader Alibaba-Aliyun and Huawei. Tencent Cloud's market share is similarly at least 2x smaller than leader Aliyun's, but this B2B business is probably more sticky and TAM should grow big enough for the top few players to all prosper together.
I think the Chinese tech industry is still figuring out this AI opportunity. What to compete on, how to compete, I think these are all subject to rapid change. It was initially chatbot, then the competition intensified on agents, and may move on to something else.
The higher-confident judgement I can make is I think Tencent wont just let the opportunity slip by. Mini-programs seems like a natural fit to deploy agents.
And if more users use and the mini-program universe expands and more transactions take place, this should support the cloud services that Tencent provides to these mini-programs.
Not sure how much of Tencent or Ali cloud revenue is derived from: renting out CPUS/GPUs to customers (e.g. AI labs) vs providing AI-model inference services vs providing an application service. I think the last one has the highest quality of revenue as it is most unique.
|
Homepage
PR Newswire
