US Economic News

[weijian]

US May/June job market were revised up to ~90% downwards and these are huge changes. To outsiders, it look worst than a CCP's managed targets for their economy I suppose?

I asked ChatGPT for a history of large revisions - Large revisions are not frequent but does happen. But 90% revisions definitely suggest something has gone wrong (or maybe we could blame it all the the uncertainty coming from the trade war?) Someone has to take responsibility I guess and maybe Trump's firing make sense (but his reasoning doesn't)

Trump fires Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, raising concerns about economic data quality

The US economy created only 73,000 jobs in July. Data for May and June were revised sharply down to show 258,000 fewer jobs created than had been previously reported.

The economy added just 19,000 in May, not the 144,000 the government initially reported. June job gains were revised down to 14,000, from the 147,000 first estimated. Taken together, employment over the prior two months is 258,000 lower than previously reported.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/tr...ta-5273466

ChatGPT on revisions to US monthly job market:

🔁 Notable Monthly Payroll Revisions (Nonfarm Payrolls)
📉 May & June 2025
Combined downward revision: −258,000 jobs
Initial numbers were later cut sharply after new employer data came in.
July 2025 added just 73,000 jobs, magnifying the slowdown signal.

📉 June 2023
Revised down by: −105,000 jobs
Initially reported: +209,000
Revised: +104,000
Contributed to the growing narrative that labor market strength was overstated through mid‑2023.

📈 June 2022
Revised up by: +105,000 jobs
Initial: +372,000 → Final: +478,000
Reflected stronger hiring momentum during the summer rebound.

📉 March 2021
Revised down by: −146,000 jobs (over 2 months)
A combination of noisy reopening data and misreporting led to big fluctuations.

📈 January 2021
Revised up by: +117,000 jobs
Original: +49,000 → Final: +166,000
Came amid volatile winter hiring during early vaccine rollouts.

📉 March 2020
Revised down by: −169,000 jobs
Original: −701,000 → Revised: −870,000
Reflected how initial COVID impacts were understated in real time.

📉 August 2011
Initial estimate: 0 jobs
Revised: +104,000 jobs
This revision was significant because the zero headline caused a political and market stir — only to be shown as incorrect.

[weijian]

I am not a macro person but I observed that animal spirits popularized by John Keyes, does has a place in the market. Maybe we have to thank AI for helping us to avoid a recession and put shame to the last inverted inverted yield curve in 2023-2024.

AI is Eating the Economy

That was just a month after the stock market bottomed from the bear market and a few months after the inflation rate topped out at 9%.

At that point almost everyone assumed a recession was a foregone conclusion.

It didn’t happen.

Would we have seen an economic contraction if our tech overlords didn’t go on an insane AI spending spree from there?

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/08...e-economy/

[specuvestor]

July core CPI looks a notch higher coupled with fiscal pump prime Powell might be forced to cut in Sept and wait again

US turning isolationist while BRICS becoming an opposing bloc. Interesting times

Jul CPI 2.705%
Jul Core CPI 3.059%

As of 12 Aug Cleveland Fed expecting
Aug CPI 2.85%
Aug Core CPI 3.05%

Jul PCE 2.60%
Jul Core PCE 2.89%
Aug PCE 2.75%
Aug Core PCE 2.96%

Market now moving to 2 cuts this year but I still think market underestimate CPI and overestimate Fed put

Fed has increase year end CPI from 2.5% to 2.7% to 3%

Jun CPI 2.669%
Jun Core CPI 2.934%

As of 15 Jul Cleveland Fed expecting
Jul CPI 2.73%
Jul Core CPI 3.04%

Jun PCE 2.47%
Jun Core PCE 2.66%
Jul PCE 2.46%
Jul Core PCE 2.71%

[Shrivathsa]

Interesting finding by Daily Spark (Apollo Academy), that fixed income remains more attractive than the implied yield levels in public equity markets at the moment.

Put differently, risk is mispriced and investors buying the S&P 500 today are not rewarded for the risks they are taking.

In case anyone is keen to add Daily Spark to their regular bookmarks, the link is below

The Daily Spark - Apollo Academy
   

[Big Toe]

I agree that fixed income remains more attractive than the implied yield levels in US public equity markets at the moment IF you are in the US and using USD as your primary currency.

But we are in Singapore where conditions could not be more different.

1. SGD is appreciating against the USD
2. Fixed SGD T-bills are nowhere as high (T-bills at 1.59%)
3. The local mkt have dividends far higher than T-bills. (much thanks to the banks, but whether it can be sustained at such levels is another question for another day.)
4. We do not have the Mag 7 and hence market is not over heated like in the US, even if we do not consider the valuations of the Mag 7, the US mkt is still very highly valued.
5. Many of our small to mid caps ARE STILL undervalued and many providing decent yields and the catalysts to unlock their value is unfolding.

So YES, if you are in the US, using USD as your primary currency
Big NO, if you are in SG, using SGD as your primary currency

[Behappyalways]

川普真的敢動Fed？Lisa Cook被fire的背後代表的是...｜陳鳳馨解析【Yahoo TV】
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sknSZqOd9C4

[Behappyalways]

达利欧与黄国松对谈美元、黄金与全球经济变局 Ray Dalio and Ng Kok Song on the dollar, gold, and global economic shifts
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QO5kGo_OG-I

[weijian]

So it seems Mr Market has nicely priced in TACO (Trump Always Chicken Out) and also the ingenuity of businesses to minimize the actual paid tariffs. It is pretty efficient, isn't it?

Why haven’t Trump’s tariffs had a bigger impact?

[WASHINGTON] President Donald Trump raised the taxes that the United States charges on imports last year to levels not seen in a century.

Prices of goods have increased as a result, and businesses that depend on imported products and supplies have struggled, with some closing their doors. Still, the effects have not been felt as strongly as some experts predicted after early April when Trump announced double-digit tariffs on imports from countries worldwide.

By analysing the government’s tariff revenue and the value of imports, the economists concluded that the actual US tariff rate was 14.1 per cent at the end of September.

The figure is about half the tariff rate that the administration had officially announced. The average trade-weighted tariff rate for the United States was nominally 27.4 per cent in September, the authors estimated, down from a peak of 32.8 per cent in April.

Canada and Mexico also received significant exemptions from the nominally high tariffs that Trump put on them last year. Many goods that are mostly made in North America qualify for zero tariffs under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which Trump signed in his first term.

As concerns about affordability grow, the Trump administration may offer more exemptions and delays to planned tariffs. On Wednesday, Trump issued an executive order to delay a planned increase in tariffs on vanities, kitchen cabinets and upholstered furniture for one year.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/interna...ger-impact

[EnSabahNur]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/...ng-refunds

In April, just a few small businesses and a coalition of states filed the original tariff challenges that are now before the Supreme Court. They contest Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs aimed at addressing trade deficits and separate levies meant to thwart fentanyl trafficking. The recent flurry of filings piggyback on those earlier cases.

By Jan. 6, at least 914 cases were filed — almost all since November. The total number of companies involved is larger, because some complaints feature multiple corporate entities that individually paid levies on goods entering the country.

Publicly traded companies, including Costco Wholesale Corp., EssilorLuxottica SA, and Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., are among the stampede of companies suing for refunds. In the first days of 2026 alone, dozens of entities, including Dole Fresh Fruit Co., e.l.f. Cosmetics Inc. and J. Crew Group LLC, have sued.

“They’re all leaping on the bandwagon,” said John Vecchione, senior litigation counsel at the New Civil Liberties Alliance, a group that fights what it sees as government overreach and was involved early on in tariff litigation. “I’m glad they are, but I wish they had been there at the beginning.”

The plaintiffs now include subsidiaries of large domestic and overseas firms, such as US aluminum producer Alcoa Corp., Japanese auto parts sellers Yokohama Rubber Co. and Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd. and Chinese solar company LONGi Green Energy Technology Co.

Household brands are also lining up: sneaker sellers Reebok and Puma, apparel purveyor Tommy John, camera maker GoPro, personal care producers Schick and Playtex, beauty mainstays Revlon and Conair, and pantry staples Bumble Bee and Del Monte Fresh Produce.

[weijian]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/...ng-refunds

In April, just a few small businesses and a coalition of states filed the original tariff challenges that are now before the Supreme Court. They contest Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs aimed at addressing trade deficits and separate levies meant to thwart fentanyl trafficking. The recent flurry of filings piggyback on those earlier cases.

By Jan. 6, at least 914 cases were filed — almost all since November. The total number of companies involved is larger, because some complaints feature multiple corporate entities that individually paid levies on goods entering the country.

Publicly traded companies, including Costco Wholesale Corp., EssilorLuxottica SA, and Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., are among the stampede of companies suing for refunds. In the first days of 2026 alone, dozens of entities, including Dole Fresh Fruit Co., e.l.f. Cosmetics Inc. and J. Crew Group LLC, have sued.

So now Trump has to implement his tariffs through more legal methods - either through Congress's approval and/or can only targeting specific industries/sectors after comprehensive studies. It seems like the rule of law is back.

US Supreme Court strikes down Trump's global tariffs

[WASHINGTON] The US Supreme Court struck down on Friday (Feb 20) President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs that he pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies, rejecting one of his most contentious assertions of his authority in a ruling with major implications for the global economy.

The Supreme Court reached its conclusion in a legal challenge by businesses affected by the tariffs and 12 US states, most of them Democratic-governed, against Trump’s unprecedented use of this law to unilaterally impose the import taxes.

Trump’s administration has not provided tariff collection data since Dec 14. But Penn-Wharton Budget Model economists estimated on Friday that the amount collected in Trump’s tariffs based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) stood at more than US$175 billion. And that amount likely would need to be refunded with a Supreme Court ruling against the IEEPA-based tariffs.

The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that if all current tariffs stay in place, including the IEEPA-based duties, they would generate about US$300 billion annually over the next decade.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/interna...al-tariffs