2027 Madrilenian regional election
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23 May 2027
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All 143 seats in the Assembly of Madrid 72 seats needed for a majority | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A regional election will be held in the Community of Madrid on 23 May 2027 to elect the 14th Assembly of the autonomous community. All 143 seats in the Assembly will be up for election. It will be held concurrently with regional elections in at least six other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.
Overview
[edit]Under the 1983 Statute of Autonomy, the Assembly of Madrid is the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.[1] The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions.[2]
Date
[edit]The term of the Assembly of Madrid expires four years after the date of its previous ordinary election, with election day being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The election decree shall be issued no later than 54 days before the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Community of Madrid (BOCM).[3] The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, setting the date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which is 23 May 2027.
The regional president has the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Madrid at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or during the last year of parliament before its planned expiration, nor before one year after a previous one.[4] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called, which will be held on the first Sunday 54 days after the call.[5] Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances does not alter the date of the chamber's next ordinary election, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term.[6]
Electoral system
[edit]Voting for the Assembly is based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Community of Madrid and with full political rights, provided that they have not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence.[7]
The Assembly of Madrid has one seat per 50,000 inhabitants or fraction above 25,000. All are elected in a single multi-member constituency—corresponding to the autonomous community's territory—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a five percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) regionally.[8] As a result of the aforementioned allocation, the Assembly would be entitled to 143 seats, based on the official population figures resulting from the latest revision of the municipal register (as of 1 January 2025).[9]
The law does not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term will be filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[10]
Current parliament
[edit]The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the present time.[11]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | ||||
| People's Parliamentary Group of the Assembly of Madrid |
PP | 70 | 70 | ||
| More Madrid Parliamentary Group | MM | 24 | 27 | ||
| VQ | 3 | ||||
| Socialist Parliamentary Group | PSOE | 27 | 27 | ||
| Vox Parliamentary Group in Madrid | Vox | 11 | 11 | ||
Parties and candidates
[edit]The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance are required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least 0.5 percent of the electorate in the Community of Madrid, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.[12] Amendments in 2024 required a balanced composition of men and women in the electoral lists through the use of a zipper system.[13]
Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which will likely contest the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances |
Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote % | Seats | ||||||||
| PP | List
|
.jpg) |
Isabel Díaz Ayuso | Conservatism Christian democracy |
47.3% | 70 |  |
[14] | |
| MM–VQ | List
|
.jpg) |
Mónica García | Progressivism Participatory democracy Green politics |
18.4% | 27 |  |
[15] [16] | |
| PSOE | List |
.png) |
Óscar López | Social democracy | 18.2% | 27 | |
[17] [18] | |
| Vox | List
|
 |
José Antonio Fúster | Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism |
7.3% | 11 | |
[19] | |
Opinion polls
[edit]The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Graphical summary
[edit]
Voting intention estimates
[edit]The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 72 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Madrid (68 in the 2023 election).
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |
 |
 |
 |
  |
 |
 |
SALF | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data10/Okdiario[p 1] | 11–12 Jun 2026 | 1,500 | ? | 50.3 73 |
16.2 23 |
18.4 26 |
9.2 13 |
2.6 0 |
– | – | – | 31.9 |
| GAD3/El Debate[p 2] | 7–14 May 2026 | 1,004 | ? | 48.7 72 |
16.2 23 |
19.6 28 |
8.7 12 |
3.3 0 |
– | – | – | 29.1 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 3] | 24–30 Apr 2026 | 1,391 | ? | 46.7 68/69 |
16.9 24/25 |
20.2 29 |
9.5 13/14 |
4.2 0 |
– | – | – | 26.5 |
| Sigma Dos/Telemadrid[p 4] | 19 Mar 2026 | ? | ? | ? 73/74 |
? 26/27 |
? 27/28 |
? 16/17 |
? 0 |
– | – | – | ? |
| Sigma Dos/Telemadrid[p 5] | 11 Nov 2025 | ? | ? | ? 70/71 |
? 21/22 |
? 28/29 |
? 13/14 |
? 0 |
– | – | – | ? |
| Sigma Dos/Telemadrid[p 6] | 10 Sep 2025 | ? | ? | 48.8 71/72 |
? 21/22 |
? 29/30 |
? 12 |
– | – | – | – | ? |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 7] | 16–31 May 2025 | 500 | ? | 49.9 73 |
? 25 |
? 26 |
? 11 |
– | – | – | – | ? |
| Sigma Dos/Telemadrid[p 8] | 28 May 2025 | ? | ? | ? 73/74 |
? 19/20 |
? 30/31 |
? 11 |
– | – | – | – | ? |
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 9] | 28–30 Apr 2025 | 1,200 | ? | 49.3 72 |
12.6 18 |
21.7 32 |
9.3 13 |
3.6 0 |
0.4 0 |
– | – | 27.6 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 10] | 14–28 Apr 2025 | 1,189 | ? | 49.4 72/73 |
14.8 20/21 |
20.4 29/30 |
8.5 12 |
3.3 0 |
– | – | – | 29.0 |
| SyM Consulting[p 11][p 12] | 22–25 Apr 2025 | 1,100 | 64.5 | 52.7 76 |
15.7 22/23 |
16.0 23 |
9.6 13/14 |
3.4 0 |
0.4 0 |
– | – | 36.7 |
| GAD3/ABC[p 13] | 15–24 Apr 2025 | 1,013 | ? | 47.0 70 |
12.7 18 |
22.4 33 |
9.4 14 |
4.8 0 |
– | – | – | 24.6 |
| EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 14] | 28 Oct–27 Nov 2024 | 1,500 | ? | 45.9 66 |
18.9 27 |
18.7 27 |
10.5 15 |
3.9 0 |
0.9 0 |
– | – | 27.0 |
| SyM Consulting[p 15][p 16] | 18–21 Oct 2024 | 1,107 | 65.8 | 44.1 65 |
22.2 32/33 |
17.0 25 |
8.7 12/13 |
5.0 0 |
0.6 0 |
– | – | 21.9 |
| 2024 EP election | 9 Jun 2024 | N/a | 52.5 | 40.7 (62) |
[a] | 28.2 (42) |
10.7 (16) |
4.5 (0) |
1.1 (0) |
5.8 (8) |
5.1 (7) |
12.5 |
| EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 17] | 26 Mar–29 Apr 2024 | 1,500 | ? | 44.0 63 |
19.4 27 |
22.9 33 |
8.6 12 |
2.2 0 |
1.3 0 |
– | – | 21.1 |
| Data10/OKDiario[p 18] | 27–29 Mar 2024 | 1,500 | ? | 47.3 69 |
21.2 30 |
17.6 25 |
8.2 11 |
2.9 0 |
0.8 0 |
– | – | 26.1 |
| GAD3/PP[p 19] | 21–27 Mar 2024 | 1,000 | ? | 51.0 74 |
18.7 27 |
17.6 25 |
6.6 9 |
2.7 0 |
– | – | – | 32.3 |
| EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 20] | 27 Feb–25 Mar 2024 | 1,500 | ? | 43.2 63 |
19.1 27 |
23.2 33 |
8.9 12 |
1.8 0 |
1.6 0 |
– | – | 20.0 |
| 2023 general election | 23 Jul 2023 | N/a | 69.7 | 40.5 (56) |
[a] | 27.8 (39) |
14.0 (19) |
[a] | – | 15.5 (21) |
– | 12.7 |
| EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 21] | 28 May–7 Jul 2023 | 1,000 | ? | 46.8 70 |
18.3 27 |
19.1 28 |
7.2 10 |
4.5 0 |
1.6 0 |
– | – | 27.7 |
| 2023 regional election | 28 May 2023 | N/a | 65.5 | 47.3 70 |
18.4 27 |
18.2 27 |
7.3 11 |
4.8 0 |
1.6 0 |
– | – | 28.9 |
Voting preferences
[edit]The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size |  |
|
|
|
|
|
|
SALF |  |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 9] | 28–30 Apr 2025 | 1,200 | 34.4 | 10.3 | 19.8 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | – | – | 10.1 | 7.7 | 14.6 |
| CIS[p 22] | 7–31 Mar 2025 | 1,577 | 37.4 | 7.9 | 23.0 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 0.4 | – | – | 14.3 | 3.9 | 14.4 |
| 2024 EP election[b] | 9 Jun 2024 | N/a | 22.8 | [a] | 15.8 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 3.3 | 2.8 | N/a | 43.7 | 7.0 |
| 2023 general election[b] | 23 Jul 2023 | N/a | 29.8 | [a] | 20.5 | 10.3 | [a] | – | 11.4 | – | N/a | 25.9 | 9.3 |
| 2023 regional election[b] | 28 May 2023 | N/a | 32.8 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | – | – | N/a | 30.1 | 20.1 |
Preferred President
[edit]The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Community of Madrid.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
Other/ None/ Not care |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayuso PP |
García MM |
Bergerot MM |
López PSOE |
Fúster Vox | ||||||
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 9] | 28–30 Apr 2025 | 1,200 | 43.3 | 17.2 | – | 14.7 | – | 24.9 | 26.1 | |
| GAD3/ABC[p 23] | 15–24 Apr 2025 | 1,013 | 49.0 | – | 9.0 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 33.0 |
| CIS[c][p 22] | 7–31 Mar 2025 | 1,577 | 38.5 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 11.3 | 1.8 | 6.9 | 36.2 | 27.2 |
Predicted President
[edit]The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
Other/ None/ Not care |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayuso PP |
García MM |
López PSOE | ||||||
| Sigma Dos/Telemadrid[p 5] | 11 Nov 2025 | ? | 80.0 | – | 18.0 | 2.0 | 62.0 | |
| Sigma Dos/Telemadrid[p 6] | 10 Sep 2025 | ? | 75.0 | – | 20.2 | 4.8 | 54.8 | |
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 9] | 28–30 Apr 2025 | 1,200 | 61.9 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 23.9 | 53.5 | |
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]Opinion poll sources
- ↑ "Ayuso imbatible: amplía su mayoría absoluta y saca 47 escaños a Óscar López". Okdiario (in Spanish). 14 June 2026.
- ↑ "Ayuso revalidaría con dos escaños más su mayoría absoluta en las elecciones de Madrid del año que viene". El Debate (in Spanish). 22 May 2026.
- ↑ "Ayuso salva su mayoría absoluta por un escaño: limita a Vox por debajo del 10% y la izquierda sigue desfigurada". El Mundo (in Spanish). 1 May 2026.
- ↑ "Ayuso y Almeida revalidarían su mayoría absoluta, según un sondeo de Sigma Dos". Telemadrid (in Spanish). 19 March 2026.
- 1 2 "El PP ampliaría su mayoría absoluta en Madrid y Ayuso sería la única líder en aprobar, según Sigma Dos". Telemadrid (in Spanish). 11 November 2025.
- 1 2 "Ayuso reforzaría su mayoría absoluta según una encuesta de Sigma Dos para Telemadrid". Telemadrid (in Spanish). 10 September 2025.
- ↑ "Macroencuesta autonómica (I): corrupción y cloacas arrasan el poder territorial del PSOE". La Razón (in Spanish). 2 June 2025.
- ↑ "Ayuso reforzaría su mayoría absoluta, según una encuesta de Sigma Dos para Telemadrid". Telemadrid (in Spanish). 28 May 2025.
- 1 2 3 4 "Ayuso ampliaría su mayoría absoluta dos escaños: la irrupción de Óscar López solo lograría hundir a Mónica García". El Español (in Spanish). 2 May 2025.
- ↑ "Ayuso establece un nuevo techo con la izquierda bloqueada: alcanza los 73 escaños y Óscar López apenas aprovecha el hundimiento de Más Madrid y Podemos". El Mundo (in Spanish). 1 May 2025.
- ↑ "Estimación Mayo 2025 Comunidad de Madrid. Autonómicas 2027". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 6 May 2025.
- ↑ "[A] COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SyM Consulting 06/05/2025: PP 52,7% (76), PSOE 16,0% (23), MM-VQ 15,7% (22/23), VOX 9,6% (13/14), PODEMOS-IU-AV 3,4%, CS 0,4%". Electograph (in Spanish). 6 May 2025.
- ↑ "Ayuso afianza su mayoría absoluta en la Comunidad de Madrid frente al retroceso de la izquierda". ABC (in Spanish). 2 May 2025.
- ↑ "ElectoPanel (Madrid 30N): la derecha sube, Más Madrid supera al PSOE". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 November 2024.
- ↑ "Estimación Octubre 2024 Comunidad de Madrid. Autonómicas 2027". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 22 October 2024.
- ↑ "[A] COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SyM Consulting 22/10/2024: PP 44,1% (65), MM-VQ 22,2% (32/33), PSOE 17,0% (25), VOX 8,7% (12/13), PODEMOS-IU-AV 5,0%, CS 0,6%". Electograph (in Spanish). 22 October 2024.
- ↑ "EP Com. Madrid (2My): Ayuso ganaría pero necesitaría a Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 2 May 2024.
- ↑ "Sánchez pierde 2 diputados en Madrid tras el acoso fiscal a la pareja de Ayuso, que mantiene la mayoría". OKDiario (in Spanish). 31 March 2024.
- ↑ "Una encuesta interna del PP de Ayuso catapulta a la presidenta a los 74 escaños". El Periódico de España (in Spanish). 2 April 2024.
- ↑ "EP C. Madrid (31mar): Ayuso baja y no tendría absoluta, la izquierda mejora". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 March 2024.
- ↑ "ElectoPanel Com. Madrid (9JL): Lobato adelanta a Mónica". Electomanía (in Spanish). 9 July 2023.
- 1 2 "Tendencias y demandas municipales y autonómicas. Comunidad de Madrid (Estudio nº 3503. Marzo 2025)". CIS (in Spanish). 1 July 2025.
- ↑ "Ayuso aprueba en solitario entre los líderes autonómicos de Madrid y Óscar López pincha". ABC (in Spanish). 2 May 2025.
Other
- ↑ Statute (1983), arts. 9 & 14–16.
- ↑ LECM (1986), add. prov. 2.
- ↑ Statute (1983), art. 10; LECM (1986), art. 8.
- ↑ Statute (1983), art. 21; LAMPC (1990), art. 1.
- ↑ Statute (1983), art. 18; LECM (1986), art. 8.
- ↑ Statute (1983), arts. 18 & 21; LAMPC (1990), art. 2.
- ↑ Statute (1983), art. 10; LECM (1986), art. 2 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), arts. 2–3).
- ↑ Statute (1983), art. 10; LECM (1986), art. 18.
- ↑ Gelardo Arrebola, África (7 July 2026). "La Asamblea de Madrid instalará diez nuevos escaños por el aumento de la población en la Comunidad en 2027". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 7 July 2026.
- ↑ LECM (1986), arts. 10 & 18 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), arts. 46 & 48).
- ↑ "Grupos Parlamentarios" (in Spanish). Assembly of Madrid. Retrieved 30 July 2023.
- ↑ LECM (1986), art. 10 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), art. 44).
- ↑ LOREG (1985), art. 44 bis.
- ↑ Baena, Paula (28 May 2025). "Ayuso confirma que se presentará a la reelección en 2027: «No tengo previsto dejarlo»". El Debate (in Spanish). Retrieved 6 December 2025.
- ↑ Quesada, Juan Diego; Viejo, Manuel (20 May 2026). "Más Madrid firma la paz interna: Mónica García será la candidata en Madrid y Emilio Delgado irá al Congreso". El País (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 20 May 2026.
- ↑ Gelardo Arrebola, África (7 July 2026). "Mónica García y Rita Maestre ganan las primarias de Más Madrid para la Comunidad y la Alcaldía". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 7 July 2026.
- ↑ "Lobato dimite como secretario general del PSOE-M" (in Spanish). Madrid: Europa Press. 27 November 2024. Retrieved 27 November 2024.
- ↑ "Óscar López es elegido secretario general del PSOE de Madrid con el 83,37% de los votos" (in Spanish). Madrid: Servimedia. 2 February 2025. Retrieved 9 February 2025.
- ↑ "Vox sustituye a Rocío Monasterio por José Antonio Fúster en Madrid pero la mantiene como portavoz en la Asamblea" (in Spanish). Madrid: RTVE. 9 October 2024. Retrieved 27 November 2024.
Bibliography
[edit]- Ley Orgánica 3/1983, de 25 de febrero, de Estatuto de Autonomía de la Comunidad de Madrid (Organic Law 3/1983). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 25 February 1983 [version as of 17 July 2010]. BOE-A-1983-6317. Retrieved 5 December 2025.
- Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5/1985). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 19 June 1985 [version as of 2 July 2026]. BOE-A-1985-11672. Retrieved 6 August 2026.
- Ley 11/1986, de 16 de diciembre, Electoral de la Comunidad de Madrid (Law 11/1986). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 16 December 1986 [version as of 29 December 2006]. BOE-A-1987-4255. Retrieved 5 December 2025.
- Ley 5/1990, de 17 de mayo, reguladora de la facultad de disolución de la Asamblea de Madrid por el Presidente de la Comunidad (Law 5/1990). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 17 May 1990 [version as of 29 May 1990]. BOE-A-1987-4255. Retrieved 5 December 2025.
