Trading Patterns

The UK On Trade showed clear signs of recovery in March, with improving demand, longer visits and record spend per head. Average occupancy rose to 65.4% (+1.1ppt YoY), while dwell time increased to 153 minutes (+3.4%), highlighting a continued shift toward longer, more social occasions. Spend per head reached a new high of £26.91, driven primarily by food-led occasions, as consumers prioritise experience and duration over drinking intensity.

The UK on-trade remains stable at the end of February, with venue performance indicators improving despite broadly flat drinks volumes. Oxford’s dataset currently tracks 99,525 active hospitality venues across the UK. Consumers are spending 145 minutes on average per visit, reinforcing the continued shift towards longer, more experience-led occasions.

January marked a return to more typical trading patterns across the UK On Trade following the Christmas peak, yet engagement levels remained surprisingly resilient. The number of operating venues eased slightly year on year to 100,114, though the estate held broadly stable compared with December, suggesting limited post-festive contraction despite ongoing cost pressures.

December delivered the strongest engagement of the year across the UK On Trade, driven by Christmas trading and year-end socialising. The number of operating venues increased to 100,018, lifting the estate back above the 100,000 mark and reflecting a seasonal return of temporary and marginal sites alongside stronger confidence during the festive period.

UK pubs and bars saw longer visits and fuller venues in November, but softer consumption and rising costs kept real-term performance under pressure.

The Oxford Partnership’s October Market Watch reveals a challenging month for the UK hospitality sector, with longer customer visits failing to convert into stronger trading performance. Although venue engagement remained steady and opening hours continued at an average of 64.6 hours per week, the real-term value of each visit continued to decline due to inflation and escalating operational costs.

September brought steady but testing trading for UK hospitality. Fewer venues operated, but visits were longer and spend slightly higher. With inflation at 4%, real growth remains negative, squeezing margins. Consumers visit less but trade up for “treat” occasions.

August’s Market Watch shows a hospitality sector under pressure yet polarised in performance. Outlet closures continue, with Scotland hardest hit while London and the South East prove more resilient.

The UK On Trade has seen a further contraction in outlet numbers, with nearly 1% of venues disappearing compared to the same time in 2024. This isn’t just seasonal churn, it reflects the deepening cost pressures facing operators across the country. Venues are grappling with rising fixed costs, from increased National Insurance contributions and a reduction in business rate relief to higher minimum wage obligations and this is particularly true in London where closure rates double the national average.

June 2025 volumes were down year-on-year as we lap the huge spike seen during Euro 2024 and even with warm weather couldn’t match those highs. But while national momentum cooled, Cardiff hit a high note. Oasis’s back-to-back concerts delivered a huge boost with the average City Centre venue selling 1,477 pints across the two days totalling 811,000 pints across the city, a +56% uplift vs the previous weekend.

While overall draught volumes held steady in May, Premium and World Lagers continued to power ahead. Premium Lager was up +7.3% over the last 12 weeks, with World Lager growing +10.3% in the same period.

Draught Beer Bounced Back Over Easter – After a challenging start to the year, the overall beer category saw a welcome uplift in April, driven by a combination of Easter trading and an early spell of warm weather.

One of the most striking trends emerging from 2024 is the remarkable surge in stout sales. This trend shows no sign of slowing as sales jumped by +16.4% in the first 5 weeks of 2025, making it the standout performer in the beer category.

Following on from the budget in October 2024, elements of the On Trade find themselves in a more precarious position than ever, as we reach the end of November 2024.

A tough budget drove concern throughout the whole of the On Trade with cost increases to business rates, employers national insurance and the national minimal wage. JDWetherspoon, which runs nearly 800 pubs across the country, said its tax and business costs are expected to increase by about £60 million over the next tax year.

The hope of an Indian Summer sadly never came to fruition and, as a result, the 4 weeks to end September brought disappointing results for the UK on trade. September saw draught beer volume continue to decline by 3.9%. This was still a 1.6% improvement on the previous month where draught beer volumes declined 5.5%.  YTD volume continued the downward trajectory with a decline of 2%, a further 0.2% drop on August.

The appalling rioting that followed the shocking tragedy in Southport was very damaging for the trade which next month’s report will cover…

Yet another opportunity missed with no joy for the beleaguered hospitality industry in today’s budget. Jeremy Hunt has ‘generously’ frozen duty on alcohol and…. nothing else!

Spiking is to become a new, specific offence as Sir Kier Stammer states “This is a modern version of an offence against women and girls, and we need to tackle it head on.