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According to Yle's latest party sentiment poll, the opposition Social Democrats' lead in support over the governing NCP is the largest it has been since the right-wing coalition took office.
Now, the SDP leads Prime Minister Petteri Orpo's NCP by 7.1 percentage points. The reason is that support for the PM's party dropped by nearly a full percentage point since Yle's survey last month, reaching its lowest level since December 2020.
Support for the National Coalition Party declined primarily among female respondents, according to the Yle-commissioned survey conducted by Taloustutkimus.
The polling firm's research chief, Tuomo Turja, noted that past NCP supporters were more likely to say they were unsure about which party they support, rather than voice their approval for other parties.
"Those who voted for the NCP in the last election are now in a period of consideration, meaning they cannot say which party they'd vote for," Turja explained.
The NCP's most recent peak in Yle's monthly poll was seen last June, when its support gap between the biggest opposition party SDP was 3.6 percentage points. Since then, that chasm has steadily grown.
Elections just over a year away
There are 13 months left before Finland is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections. Although the SDP's lead in support has stretched to record lengths, it is still far too early to project who might be the winners in April 2027.
"I wouldn't start awarding medals based on these figures just yet," Turja said.
The Finns Party ranked third in Yle's poll this month, seeing support grow by 1.6 percentage points in a single month. However, support for the Finns Party dropped significantly last month, and now its support levels have returned to what they were in the autumn.
According to Turja, the Finns Party appears to have held on to its longtime supporters.
The Finns Party's increase in support knocked the Centre Party into fourth place, compared to last month's survey. But according to Turja, the Centre was not losing support to the Finns Party, but rather to undecided voters.
