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The opposition Social Democrats retained their healthy lead ahead of the pack in Yle's latest party support poll, but the Finns Party surpassed that of the PM's NCP, taking second place.
However, the difference in support between the National Coalition Party and Finns Party is negligible and well within the margin of error.
"It was not surprising that support for the biggest governmental party declined. The government's saving measures are now fully showing at this stage of the mandate," said Tuomo Turja, research chief at polling firm Taloustutkimus.
The ruling NCP has not received such low support in Yle's survey since the end of 2020.
"The party isn't managing to keep its old voters. Voters are particularly drifting to the Finns Party. A fairly large proportion do not know who they should vote for," Turja explained.
The last time the Finns Party was more popular than the NCP was at the beginning of this decade, when both were in the opposition.
The survey also suggests that the NCP's problem with drawing support from women is becoming increasingly serious. If only women's votes were counted, the NCP would no longer be a major party, but would fall into the middle tier. Based on the background data for the poll, the National Coalition's support among women is 12.1 percent.
"This time too, support for the National Coalition Party has decreased, especially among women," Turja said.
The head researcher said that the SDP's position is still good, but it has lost some support to the Left Alliance in particular.
The Left Alliance reached its highest level in the survey's history last month, as it has gained visibility by distinguishing itself as the only party to opt out of the cross-party 'debt brake', while other parties agreed.
The debt brake, also known as a balanced budget amendment, is a fiscal rule that aims to keep government expenditure in line with revenue — limiting the need to borrow and keeping state debt from spiralling out of control.
According to Turja, the party is gaining new supporters from within the red-green bloc — former supporters of the SDP and the Greens.
Female voters
While the National Coalition Party is having problems with a loss of female supporters, the Social Democratic Party is clearly the most popular party among women, with just over 27 percent support. The Left Alliance holds second place among women with just over 16 percent.
The opposition Centre Party ranked third in an Yle poll last spring, and at their best were four percentage points ahead of the Finns Party, but in recent months the Centre's support seems to have stagnated to around 13 percent, clearly behind the Finns Party.
The Centre has been pressuring the government, including the Finns Party, about high fuel prices, but considering the survey results, that does not seem to have increased their support.
Taloustutkimus interviewed 2,807 people. 2,089 people (74.4%) stated their party affiliation. Interviewees were asked which party candidate they would vote for if the parliamentary elections were held now. The interviews were conducted as computer-assisted telephone interviews and in an online panel from 7 September to 5 October 2026. Respondents were adult Finns in mainland Finland. The margin of error was a maximum 1.8 percentage points in either direction.
