Frasers CentrePoint Trust

[swakoo]

As expected, OPMIs directed a lot of questions to FCT Mgt to get their thoughts/actions to handle the pending RTS "doomsday". 

Conceivably, a large part of the "doomsday" already arrived about 12 months ago. 

With the number of auto e-gates at both ends of the Causeway immigration hall checkpoints increased significantly and operating well. Resulting in virtually no queue at both checkpoints and only few seconds immigration clearance going in or out, when travelling by bus. (No need to pre-register either to be eligible to use auto e-gates.) 

A significant reduction in travel time compared to past days of manually cleared immigration. Already a game changer! (even before RTS end of 2026)

[weijian]

Conceivably, a large part of the "doomsday" already arrived about 12 months ago. 

With the number of auto e-gates at both ends of the Causeway immigration hall checkpoints increased significantly and operating well. Resulting in virtually no queue at both checkpoints and only few seconds immigration clearance going in or out, when travelling by bus. (No need to pre-register either to be eligible to use auto e-gates.) 

A significant reduction in travel time compared to past days of manually cleared immigration. Already a game changer! (even before RTS end of 2026)

Hi swakoo,

There seems to be concrete data now to support your anecdotal observation.

While, there are still other bottlenecks, like insufficient automobile capacity to cross the ~1.5km causeway, but I suppose that isn't a bigger concern (than checkpoints themselves) since the healthier ones are able to take matters into their own hands and walk. Anyways, they can burn their calories ahead/after those big meals in JB.

Since this is credit card spent, one bias of this data is that it excludes those smaller establishments that do not accept POS payments which charges the merchant a fee. So Sporeans' spending via direct bank transfers (paynow/duitnow), e-wallets and cash are excluded from the spending as discussed below and this may explains why services (eg. massages/salons etc) have not been discussed as a category.

From mala to mall: 5 ways Singaporeans are swiping more in Johor

Transactions are up sharply even as the average ticket size dips, suggesting consumers are crossing the Causeway more often and buying more frequently

Overall, spending by Singapore UOB cardholders in Malaysia climbed about 40 per cent annually between 2022 and 2024, with another 20 per cent year-on-year growth in H1 2025. Johor alone logged 60 per cent annual growth from 2022 to 2024, making it the undisputed top city for cross-border spending.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compani...es-markets

UOB PR: https://www.uobgroup.com/uobgroup/newsro...cr=segment

[EnSabahNur]

There's some doom and gloom with the idea that traffic and revenue going to Johor.

Does anyone think that this will help alleviate the rising costs in Singapore, actually benefiting other REITs, such as office REITs?

[swakoo]

Conceivably, a large part of the "doomsday" already arrived about 12 months ago. 
.

Hi swakoo,

There seems to be concrete data now to support your anecdotal observation.
.

Thanks weijian for highlighting. 

FCT's full year results released this morning. DPU yoy up 0.6% on half year and full year.

At the management call with analysts, an analyst asked about the tenant sales at Causeway Pt and Northpoint. CEO sensed and replied that this must be to find out about potential leakage to JB (these 2 malls being the closest to JB). He said from 2019 to now, overall tenant sales at these 2 malls grew more than 15% for CP and more than 20% for NP, or an average of 3 to 4% each year. 

The credit card data (even though it does not represent all the various spending mechanisms) shows increased spending cross border. So there is leakage but the degree of leakage is not having a negative impact on FCT. Even with the significantly strengthened SGD-MYR and the convenience of a lot more auto-gates taking care of the major travel bottlenecks over the past 1.5 years. Possibly mitigated by population growth in those catchment areas (and which will continue in coming years due to planned housing developments) among other factors (eg. curation or evolution of more leak-proof trade mix).

[swakoo]

From the latest quarterly biz update, the mgt team together with a consultant actually went to HK/Shenzen to study and learn from what happened to retail shopping after the trains started operation from HK into Shenzen.

After coming back, they have decided to do a big AEI on Causeway Point to reposition it as a regional mall. Catering to the growing population, connectivity and developments in the vicinity. Wonder what the shorts (who thrive on fear (real or imagined) will make of this masterful (?) maneuver? Bear or (bull?) trap?

[weijian]

From the latest quarterly biz update, the mgt team together with a consultant actually went to HK/Shenzen to study and learn from what happened to retail shopping after the trains started operation from HK into Shenzen.

After coming back, they have decided to do a big AEI on Causeway Point to reposition it as a regional mall. Catering to the growing population, connectivity and developments in the vicinity. Wonder what the shorts (who thrive on fear (real or imagined) will make of this masterful (?) maneuver? Bear or (bull?) trap?

Hi swakoo,

In terms of their study trip up north, I don't really think the REIT mgr has done anything out of the ordinary. You would expect a competent one to do so, ie. having someone (Link REIT) pay for tuition and then you learn from it. So, i wouldn't put too much halo effects on them.

A good location is (almost) an unbeatable moat for real estate. Not all real estate classes but for most. IMHO, retail malls in good locations whether is it because of scarcity of land to build another one, good connectivity or surrounded by good number of population, are dealt with favorable cards when met with external threat. The only ones who are struggling are the tenants. And a good mgr will attract striving tenants to replace the struggling ones. That said, it is always possible for bad mgt to mess up even when dealt a good hand.

Therefore as usual, what usually transpires would be a path of the middle. As expected, Mgt has guided a single digit leakage. Bu depending on methodology, it might be a bigger one after accounting for inflation? Optimizing trade mix is just another euphemism for lower rental/sqft - let's say you add more services like childcare/tuition etc. But I suppose you can compensate for it via adding more convenience/impulse related retail (Old Chang Kee, bubble tea, 711) at the high foot traffic area like entrances/exits. Imagine opening a brain development clinic on the same floor and just opposite a branded tuition center. The brain development doctor will be willing to pay a premium!

[swakoo]

In terms of their study trip up north, I don't really think the REIT mgr has done anything out of the ordinary. You would expect a competent one to do so, ie. having someone (Link REIT) pay for tuition and then you learn from it. So, i wouldn't put too much halo effects on them.

Hi weijian, common sense may not be too common - according to LKY.

Anyway, think the quality of the study/analysis of visit to HK/Shenzen is more important than that it took place. Blogger "thefatinvestor" further noted these mgt insights from HK/Shenzen visit in a blog, from attending the 2026 FCT AGM (some of which are repeated in the CEO's comments in biz update audiocast:

While I’ve previously noted that “JB is not Shenzhen,” Richard’s insights provided the data to back that gut feeling:

Scale and Connectivity: Shenzhen is a megacity of 18 million with a high-efficiency transit network. JB is ten times smaller, and transit remains difficult outside the Bukit Chagar city center. Moreover, HK-SZ are more “densely” connected than SG-JB.

Demographics: The HK-SZ border was originally built to attract mainland shoppers; consequently, SZ rapid development hit them hard. Conversely, Causeway Point was designed to serve a local catchment, making it more resilient to cross-border shifts.

Price Parity: There is little arbitrage for international brands like Uniqlo. Interestingly, Richard shared an anecdote from a Singapore brand that it’s cheaper to buy their shoes in SG than JB.

Optimizing trade mix is just another euphemism for lower rental/sqft

Think it is not necessarily true that leak proof trades attract lower rental psf than non-leak proof ones.

In the audiocast, the CEO noted that hi end international brands tend to do parity pricing across regions, so there is little arbitrage. And the latest or newer offerings may only be or first available in major places like Sg. So, and i am just guessing, maybe one focus of repurposing Causeway Point as a regional mall is also to attract shoppers from JB side to shop for these brands there?

[corydorus]

Long time no post. If you are working in SG as Singaporean on 9-5 job, let say Yishun and below. Scenario for those Not those near causeway, do you really have time to go JB every week if you are not today, due to RTS ? Not sure i can spare the time.

[specuvestor]

In general access to roads, canals then rails, highways, subways, HSR and even budget air will increase always velocity of people and goods in aggregate

It's a matter of degree. Even a road between 2 forsaken area will increase the traffic between the 2 points albeit insignificant in grand scheme of things. When you remove friction ie immigration / visa / red tape it again increases the velocity. Indeed the bottleneck now is no longer the immigration as swakoo noted but the buses. That already tells you the traffic has jumped beyond the original capacity.

My guess is that those working 9-5 in HK (if there's such a thing ) has increased their trips to Shenzhen in aggregate but I doubt the impact will be that drastic in SG but impact should not be insignificant; as I think the quality of life in shenzhen is not uncomparable to HK whereas not that true here across the causeway.

[weijian]

OPMI Mr Ong asked a good question. It seems like NONE of the directors (NED) own any shares in FCT. And if anyone is scared of been "misperceived" or been put in "conflicts of interest", then just have the directors' remuneration modified from all cash to part cash/part shares. This resolves all manners of (perceived) misperception/conflict of interest, and at the same time, give the perception of alignment of interest.

MINUTES OF THE ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING HELD ON FRIDAY, 23 JANUARY 2026, AT 9.30 A.M.

Mr Michael Ong (“Mr Ong”) observed that only one of the Directors, Mr Ho Chee Hwee Simon, owns Units in FCT. He opined that if all the Directors own Units, the interests of the Board would be very much aligned with the interests of Unitholders, including where it relates to DPU growth. He also noted that the CEO owns more Units than the Directors of the Manager.

The CEO explained that part of his compensation is paid in Units, and the number of Units he owns is reported in the Annual Report. With respect to Directors holding Units, the CEO cautioned that the Directors may sometimes be put in a situation where if they buy Units, questions may arise about whether they are deemed to be holding critical information and may be in a conflicted position. This is especially the case because FCT carries out many transactions each year, ranging from acquisitions to AEIs programmes. The CEO stressed that it was not always easy for the Directors to buy and sell Units in the market as there could be issues of conflicts of interest. The CEO added that if there are opportunities to buy Units, some of the Directors might want to do so.

Mr Ho Chee Hwee Simon supplemented that the Units which he is deemed to be interested in, as reported in the Annual Report, are owned by his wife and he does not control her investment decisions. He also emphasised that the reason he does not own Units is not because he lacks confidence in FCT, but he is careful to avoid situations where his dealing in Units may be misperceived.

https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/FCT%20-%2...eID=875548