Frasers CentrePoint Trust

[swakoo]

OPMI Mr Ong asked a good question. It seems like NONE of the directors (NED) own any shares in FCT. And if anyone is scared of been "misperceived" or been put in "conflicts of interest", then just have the directors' remuneration modified from all cash to part cash/part shares. This resolves all manners of (perceived) misperception/conflict of interest, and at the same time, give the perception of alignment of interest.

Hi weijian, yes very lame excuses given.

Ex-Chairman of FCT, Dr Cheong Choong Kong, owned 140,300 units when he was the Chairman.

Incidentally, Simon Ho was an ex-CEO of CMT (precursor of CICT). Before this, he was managing operations of CMT, fully hands on on the nuts and bolts of retail biz. Surely a star catch from the rival reit camp. For ref, his indirect holding of FCT is 520,000 units. Richard Ng owns 573,141 units.

On a separate subject, find the quality of investing blogs improving a lot over the years. Eg. this one on FCT:
Frasers Centrepoint Trust And The RTS Fear: Why I’m Still Buying

[weijian]

Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) was one of the 1st S-REIT to take on a greenfield retail development. FCT has joined the bandwagon with it been part of the consortium that just won a mixed-use GLS tender.

Compared with CICT owning 100% of the non-residential component, the difference is that FCT has 50% ownership of the retail JV, with 2 other partners (Sunway and Sekisui House) owning the remaining. And a quick comparison between both developments CICT-Hougang and FCT-Bedok South, also shows that the latter is comparatively smaller by ~50% in terms of retail NLA.

JOINT SUBMISSION OF BID FOR SITE AT BAYSHORE DRIVE

Frasers Centrepoint Asset Management Ltd., in its capacity as manager of Frasers Centrepoint Trust (“FCT”, and the manager of FCT, the “Manager”), is pleased to announce that the consortium which includes FCT has submitted the highest bid of S$2.1 billion (S$1,323 per square foot per plot ratio) for the tender of a mixed-use commercial and residential site at Bayshore Drive (the “Joint Development”), which closed today

Located within the Bayshore waterfront precinct, the mixed-use development is expected to yield up to 1,280 residential units and 22,500 sqm (approximately 242,188 sf) of commercial area. This includes a retail mall spanning 22,100 sqm (approximately 237,882 sf) in gross floor area and about 14,900 - 16,700 sqm (approximately 160,000 - 180,000 sf1) in net lettable area

Announcement: https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/FCT%20SGX...eID=896497
PR: https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Joint%20P...eID=896498

[weijian]

Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) was one of the 1st S-REIT to take on a greenfield retail development. FCT has joined the bandwagon with it been part of the consortium that just won a mixed-use GLS tender.

Compared with CICT owning 100% of the non-residential component, the difference is that FCT has 50% ownership of the retail JV, with 2 other partners (Sunway and Sekisui House) owning the remaining. And a quick comparison between both developments CICT-Hougang and FCT-Bedok South, also shows that the latter is comparatively smaller by ~50% in terms of retail NLA.

More information about the tender losers for the new Bedok South MRT mixed-use site have come in and CLD/CICT/UOL consortium came in 3rd place (and lost).

Back in Dec2025 when the similar Hougang mixed-use site was won by the CLD/CICT/UOL consortium, the FPL/Sekisui/LumChang consortium came in 3rd place. Back then, this FPL/Sekisui/LumChang consortium did not have FCT/Sunway coming in to handle responsibility of the non-residential component. So, it seems the Hougang bid losers (FPL/Sekisui/LumChang) have copied well from their competitors and adapted.

Frasers Property-led consortium outbids two others with S$2.13 billion offer for Bayshore Drive mixed-use site

The top bid, by a consortium comprising Frasers Property, Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT), Sunway MCL, Sekisui House and Lum Chang Building Contractors, was nearly S$2.13 billion, which works out to around S$1,323 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr).

The lowest bid of nearly S$1.99 billion or S$1,235 psf ppr was from a tie-up involving CapitaLand Development, a UOL consortium and CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/propert...d-use-site

[swakoo]

Compared with CICT owning 100% of the non-residential component, the difference is that FCT has 50% ownership of the retail JV, with 2 other partners (Sunway and Sekisui House) owning the remaining. And a quick comparison between both developments CICT-Hougang and FCT-Bedok South, also shows that the latter is comparatively smaller by ~50% in terms of retail NLA.

Hi weijian, the Hougang retail site is about 300K sq ft. The Bedok South retail site is about 160-180K sq ft, with FCT's 50% economic interest translating into about 80-90K sq ft. So yes in absolute terms, CICT's retail site is about 3.5X that of FCT's.

But to put things in perspective, CICT is capitalised at about 4X of FCT. So the financial impact of their respective greenfield projects will be roughly comparable relative to dilution vs rest of respective portfolio, back of envelope, ceteris paribus. And FCT also could have opportunity to acquire the other 50% in future.

Chatter from the 'talking heads':
Analysts positive on FCT’s potential award to build ‘next suburban retail landmark’ at Bayshore

[weijian]

Hi weijian, the Hougang retail site is about 300K sq ft. The Bedok South retail site is about 160-180K sq ft, with FCT's 50% economic interest translating into about 80-90K sq ft. So yes in absolute terms, CICT's retail site is about 3.5X that of FCT's.

But to put things in perspective, CICT is capitalised at about 4X of FCT. So the financial impact of their respective greenfield projects will be roughly comparable relative to dilution vs rest of respective portfolio, back of envelope, ceteris paribus. And FCT also could have opportunity to acquire the other 50% in future.

Chatter from the 'talking heads':
Analysts positive on FCT’s potential award to build ‘next suburban retail landmark’ at Bayshore

Hi swakoo,

For S-REITs, there is a 10% limit (25% if approved by shareholders) of deposited property value for greenfield developments. Therefore, this caps the absolute quantum of development value. This may also explain why FCT has only a 50% stake in the non-residential portion compared to CICT with 100%, despite the Hougang consortium includes UOL with mall operating experience.

Some years ago, I do remember hearing from FCT that malls with at least 250k sqft NLA will have scale advantage in terms of optimizing its trade mix to attract footfall. So it is with this context that I contrast both developments' size. Of course, this does not mean that smaller malls will not succeed but it will be a uphill climb if nearby competitors are bigger (with everything else almost equal).

[swakoo]

Some years ago, I do remember hearing from FCT that malls with at least 250k sqft NLA will have scale advantage in terms of optimizing its trade mix to attract footfall. So it is with this context that I contrast both developments' size. Of course, this does not mean that smaller malls will not succeed but it will be a uphill climb if nearby competitors are bigger (with everything else almost equal).

Hi weijian, thanks for explaining the context of your previous post. Makes sense though a big mitigating factor is that the project is mixed use and directly integrated to mrt and bus interchange. And looks like no nearby current or future bigger competitors.

[weijian]

Some years ago, I do remember hearing from FCT that malls with at least 250k sqft NLA will have scale advantage in terms of optimizing its trade mix to attract footfall. So it is with this context that I contrast both developments' size. Of course, this does not mean that smaller malls will not succeed but it will be a uphill climb if nearby competitors are bigger (with everything else almost equal).

Hi weijian, thanks for explaining the context of your previous post. Makes sense though a big mitigating factor is that the project is mixed use and directly integrated to mrt and bus interchange. And looks like no nearby current or future bigger competitors.

Hi swakoo,

I believe there are a couple of mixed developments integrated to transport hubs (whether mrt or bus or both) that may not be doing so good. Putting mgt quality aside, their commonality seems to be population density and a really small NLA (20-30 uniformly spaced shops type across 2-3levels).

Bedok South is a new greenfield MRT with a catchment area that is only going to be developed in future. So there is plenty of additional risks compared to the Hougang site that CICT bagged in Dec. But CLD/CICT/UOL did bid as well showing its attractiveness, but lost out as its bid price came in 3rd at ~6.6% below the winning one. All in all, the future mall is not huge but probably calibrated well to the potential catchment area.

[swakoo]

I believe there are a couple of mixed developments integrated to transport hubs (whether mrt or bus or both) that may not be doing so good. Putting mgt quality aside, their commonality seems to be population density and a really small NLA (20-30 uniformly spaced shops type across 2-3levels).

Hi weijian,

I consulted Gemini and this is the doc generated:

Mixed-use developments integrated to mrt and bus interchange: size and performance of their retail components

All the retail components are doing well with very high occupancies, even those below 150K sq ft NLA. The integration to transport seems to be a key advantage.

[weijian]

I believe there are a couple of mixed developments integrated to transport hubs (whether mrt or bus or both) that may not be doing so good. Putting mgt quality aside, their commonality seems to be population density and a really small NLA (20-30 uniformly spaced shops type across 2-3levels).

Hi weijian,

I consulted Gemini and this is the doc generated:

Mixed-use developments integrated to mrt and bus interchange: size and performance of their retail components

All the retail components are doing well with very high occupancies, even those below 150K sq ft NLA. The integration to transport seems to be a key advantage.

Hi swakoo,

My above impression came from reading reports of listed companies. The first one was BBR Holdings owning the retail podium for LINQ (connected to Beauty World MRT) which doesn't seem to be performing to expectations. I recently read Guocoland's AR and saw that it opened Lentor Modern in 2026, which I am looking forward to see how it performs in the coming 1-2years (the typical retail lease is signed for 3 years)

This 2 examples are the "really small NLA" sort that I am referring to.

[weijian]

Conceivably, a large part of the "doomsday" already arrived about 12 months ago. 

With the number of auto e-gates at both ends of the Causeway immigration hall checkpoints increased significantly and operating well. Resulting in virtually no queue at both checkpoints and only few seconds immigration clearance going in or out, when travelling by bus. (No need to pre-register either to be eligible to use auto e-gates.) 

A significant reduction in travel time compared to past days of manually cleared immigration. Already a game changer! (even before RTS end of 2026)

Hi swakoo,

There seems to be concrete data now to support your anecdotal observation.

While, there are still other bottlenecks, like insufficient automobile capacity to cross the ~1.5km causeway, but I suppose that isn't a bigger concern (than checkpoints themselves) since the healthier ones are able to take matters into their own hands and walk. Anyways, they can burn their calories ahead/after those big meals in JB.

Since this is credit card spent, one bias of this data is that it excludes those smaller establishments that do not accept POS payments which charges the merchant a fee. So Sporeans' spending via direct bank transfers (paynow/duitnow), e-wallets and cash are excluded from the spending as discussed below and this may explains why services (eg. massages/salons etc) have not been discussed as a category.

From mala to mall: 5 ways Singaporeans are swiping more in Johor

Transactions are up sharply even as the average ticket size dips, suggesting consumers are crossing the Causeway more often and buying more frequently

Overall, spending by Singapore UOB cardholders in Malaysia climbed about 40 per cent annually between 2022 and 2024, with another 20 per cent year-on-year growth in H1 2025. Johor alone logged 60 per cent annual growth from 2022 to 2024, making it the undisputed top city for cross-border spending.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compani...es-markets

UOB PR: https://www.uobgroup.com/uobgroup/newsro...cr=segment

The news article about a commissioned study on the RTS impact on Spore's retail spending came out recently and I thought it would be interesting to look at the details.

(For those who are interested to understand more beyond the news article, there is a 69 slide presentation as I attached)

Some thoughts of mine:
- Slide22 has a good metric to document the leakage. For example in 2023, out of every 100 dollars spent by Spore residents across SG+JB for "Drugs and Toiletries", 32 dollars was spent in JB. By 2025 this number increased to 49dollars, meaning every 1 dollar spent by a Spore resident (who visits JB) in Spore, they will spend another 1 dollar in JB.
- SG-to-JB travelers using private transport plan to spend less on groceries in future. Will it actually reduce the expected leakage for this category? In addition, these business groups are calling for more CDC vouchers which will eventually benefit folks like Sheng Siong I suppose (2nd order effects).
- It's not going to be restricted to the North. While the data doesn't normalize to population but we can reasonably assume this affects the entire Spore. There will be slight incremental gains for the IRs/Changi Airport and all other high end stuff.

Impact of RTS on Singapore’s Retail and F&B Sectors

Our joint study with Mastercard finds that while the RTS will drive higher levels of cross - border activity, the impact on Singapore’s retail and F&B sectors is expected to be net negative, with outbound spending by Singapore consumers outpacing inbound flows from Johor. This reflects the strength of value -seeking behaviour, particularly in everyday consumption categories such as groceries, drugstores, and dining, where price differentials are most pronounced.

Importantly, these pressures are not confined to businesses in the North. The effects are expected to be broad - based across the island, with all regions outside the Central area experiencing net outflows. Essentials and dining sectors, which underpin daily domestic consumption, are among the most exposed.

slides: https://www.sbf.org.sg/docs/default-sour...b7ba6722_1
Methodology: https://www.sbf.org.sg/docs/default-sour...9e72e20e_3