IEA示警「史上最嚴重石油斷供」伊朗局勢動盪到何時？ 陳鳳馨警告半導體供應鏈恐面臨風險！【Yahoo TV#風向龍鳳配 ｜CC字幕 】

[Behappyalways]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JCjqSdCYmUA

[specuvestor]

US has another 30 odd days for this strike else it has to get congress approval for war after 60 days. There is US World cup in June and mid-term in Nov though MBS and Israel is keen to keep the war going. On the other hand with paratroopers coming next 3-4 days this weekend will be critical if Trump is calling a bluff again with 5 days ceasefire like the surprise attack in June 2025. The Iranians will be stupid to get fooled twice.

Contrary to mainstream I think US is looking for regime change not install regime which most are focused on. The diff is that the former is allowing civil wars etc like Libya, Syria, Iraq to take it's course while US provide money and equipments to 2-3 warlords to win in 10 years; while the latter is like Korea, Vietnam, Afghan to put boots on the ground and install a democratic government. I think with the passing of the cold war, the latter is no longer relevant yet pundits have not changed. US will likely support those that can secure oil assets and that's the "discussions" they are having with Iran leaders (doesn't say who but unlikely current regime... or is it to stoke suspicions within?)

[weijian]

I suppose Trump is gentleman enough not to "fly aeroplane" on Xi a 2nd time.

But again, it is not much of "Art of the Deal" when the negotiating party on the other side knows your schedule (after the negotiation wraps up) ahead of time. But the Iranians should also have a lot of incentives to wrap up a deal since the ones currently negotiating, have just replaced those who were bought down by US in the last month, and so they have plenty of incentives to wrap up a deal to allow themselves to stay longer in their own positions. In addition, the Revolutionary Guard controls ~30-40% of the economy and the war has definitely hurt their wallets as well. Sadly, since you control that much of the economy, you are also in a good position to benefit during the rebuild.

Trump plans May visit to China for talks with Xi after Iran war delay

Initially slated to travel next week, Trump will now visit Beijing on May 14 and 15, he said in a Truth Social post on Wednesday. Trump added that he would host Xi for a reciprocal visit in Washington later this year.

It is also not clear whether the ⁠war with Iran, which has shaken the global economy, will be settled by the time of the Xi-Trump meeting.

Asked whether the war could wind down in time for the China trip, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Wednesday that "we've always estimated approximately four ⁠to six weeks. So you could do the math on that."
Leavitt also said Trump and Xi spoke about rescheduling the trip and that Xi had understood the reasons for doing so.

"President Xi understood that it's very important for the president to be here throughout these combat operations right now," she said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trum...026-03-25/