Frasers CentrePoint Trust

[swakoo]

Hi swakoo,

My above impression came from reading reports of listed companies. The first one was BBR Holdings owning the retail podium for LINQ (connected to Beauty World MRT) which doesn't seem to be performing to expectations. I recently read Guocoland's AR and saw that it opened Lentor Modern in 2026, which I am looking forward to see how it performs in the coming 1-2years (the typical retail lease is signed for 3 years)

This 2 examples are the "really small NLA" sort that I am referring to.

Hi weijian,

Thanks for elaborating.

Sorry didn't realise the doc link i posted was not viewable, so have uploaded the doc.

Ya LINQ seems tiny at 30K sq ft NLA. Also not connected to bus interchange and bigger malls in immediate vicinity.

Lentor Modern mall bigger at 90K sq ft NLA but scale seems limited for getting good retail mix. No bus interchange too but seems to have no nearby competition. Still under development...

[swakoo]

The news article about a commissioned study on the RTS impact on Spore's retail spending came out recently and I thought it would be interesting to look at the details.

(For those who are interested to understand more beyond the news article, there is a 69 slide presentation as I attached)

Some thoughts of mine:

Hi weijian,

Thanks for link to slides. To add to your thoughts:

Think the Bukit Chagar station is likely to become a severe chokepoint (Strait of Hormuz?) when the RTS starts operation. Very poor connectivity beyond there and somewhat alleviated only after the proposed (but still not yet formalised) elevated autonomous rapid transit system is ready (>2030?). (This is unlike connectivity in Shenzen.) Does the research take this into account? (Right now even before the RTS begins, that area is already very congested, though some of it is perhaps due to the construction works.)

With very efficient ecommerce platforms now already linked to the world's factory (China), we in Sg can already buy online many stuffs from China, cheaper even than from Johor. Not only cheaper but also more convenient (and more variety) to get online from China vendors than to venture out to Johor. And the involution may become even more intense over time.

Our retail businesses have already been adapting to the more efficient transport flows arising from automated e-gates and China ecommerce involution. Think further adaptation depends on the degree of incremental leakage due to the RTS.

[specuvestor]

I hope the RTS will start before the school holidays to iron out any teething issues before the mad rush

The impact of Singaporeans going over to JB has indeed increased even without the RTS and the recent Johor state elections shows that inflation is the biggest issue, and in many areas Johor Bahru cost of living can exceed or par with KL. Ironically because the populace saw what happened during COVID when Singaporeans can't go over, this time round Singapore tourists were not the main bogeyman in the elections, though indirectly insinuated in the high inflation, but instead focus on how to manage imported inflation.

As per my post below earlier in the year, the impact on Singapore probably spread through the island cause of good connectivity. But if connectivity is poor like JB the inflation pressure is localised. That's a major lesson for city planning

And agree Bukit Chagar station placement is quite bad above Komtar and all the bus interchange and immigration which already jam up the roads there. Singapore on the other hand didn't use eg Woodlands MRT as the RTS station but extend out to Woodlands North a less congested place. This again reflects quality of management planning.

PS I hope the retail figures quoted by the slides excludes car purchase

In general access to roads, canals then rails, highways, subways, HSR and even budget air will increase always velocity of people and goods in aggregate

It's a matter of degree. Even a road between 2 forsaken area will increase the traffic between the 2 points albeit insignificant in grand scheme of things. When you remove friction ie immigration / visa / red tape it again increases the velocity. Indeed the bottleneck now is no longer the immigration as swakoo noted but the buses. That already tells you the traffic has jumped beyond the original capacity.

My guess is that those working 9-5 in HK (if there's such a thing ) has increased their trips to Shenzhen in aggregate but I doubt the impact will be that drastic in SG but impact should not be insignificant; as I think the quality of life in shenzhen is not uncomparable to HK whereas not that true here across the causeway.

[CY09]

Bukit Chagar was chosen for two key strategic reasons. First, it has excellent road connectivity, allowing it to function as a park-and-ride hub, where Malaysian commuters can drive or ride to Bukit Chagar, park their vehicles, and then take the RTS into Singapore for work. This reduces the number of private vehicles crossing the Causeway and helps ease border congestion. Second less obvious but equally strategic reason is its proximity to Malaysia's ETS (Electric Train Service) network, the Malaysia Federal government hopes to take a chunk of the Changi-KL flight route away from SIA's stronghold

[specuvestor]

The impact is for sure; it’s how significant:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapor...072026_cna

Hi CY09 if wanna set up a hub then probably should plan routes properly not just cluster together and hope for the best. Let’s see how it goes maybe there’s some roads I yet to see

Bukit Chagar was chosen for two key strategic reasons. First, it has excellent road connectivity, allowing it to function as a park-and-ride hub, where Malaysian commuters can drive or ride to Bukit Chagar, park their vehicles, and then take the RTS into Singapore for work. This reduces the number of private vehicles crossing the Causeway and helps ease border congestion. Second less obvious but equally strategic reason is its proximity to Malaysia's ETS (Electric Train Service) network, the Malaysia Federal government hopes to take a chunk of the Changi-KL flight route away from SIA's stronghold

[swakoo]

I found this to be a very well thought-out and comprehensive write-up by blogger Kevin (who visits JB off and on) on how the RTS could impact FCT, covering many different aspects:

Frasers Centrepoint Trust: The RTS Fear And Why I’m Still Buying (2026)

[CY09]

The missing consideration in many discussions is convenience. During weekends, the fare difference between the RTS (around SGD$5 per person) and taking the bus via Woodlands Checkpoint (around SGD$2 per person) is only about SGD$3 each way. For a return trip, that's roughly SGD$6 more.

The question then becomes: Would you pay an extra SGD$6 to avoid two hours of queuing? For many people, the answer is yes.

On weekends, travelling via Woodlands often means around an hour from Singapore clearance until boarding or alighting the CW bus at JB CIQ, followed by another lengthy queue at JB immigration. In total, two hours can easily be lost just waiting and queueing in much humid and hot (despite air condition environment). In contrast, the RTS is expected to complete the cross-border journey in around 30 minutes because of its higher capacity and more predictable passenger flow.

The additional SGD$6 is quickly offset by the savings available in Johor Bahru. A meal at Hai Kah Lang costs around RM21 per person, compared to around SGD$18 at its Singapore outlet in Funan. Cafés around Taman Sentosa typically cost around RM45, while a comparable meal at Rocky Master in Woodlands can cost around SGD$28. Even after factoring in a Grab ride from Bukit Chagar RTS station (around RM14 one way), JB still offers significantly better value, alongside a much wider range of shopping, dining and entertainment options.

More importantly, the RTS is not targeting the same consumer segment as today's Woodlands bus commuters. It is aimed at families and higher-income travellers who place greater value on convenience than on saving SGD$6. Parents are far more likely to pay a small premium to avoid making young children endure two hours of queues at both Woodlands Checkpoint and JB CIQ.

As a result, the RTS is likely to encourage more spontaneous day trips to Johor Bahru. Instead of spending a day at malls such as Northpoint City or AMK Hub, many families seeking an eight-hour weekend getaway may increasingly choose JB, where the combination of shorter travel times, lower prices and broader retail experiences delivers a stronger value proposition. Even Mid Valley South Key (positioned in the same bracket as Suntec) will draw crowds away from Suntec City ( I am not joking of the effects). Things are cheaper there, food offerings are better, blind boxes are cheaper. a $6 SGD payment for a 1 hour+ transport time saved is worth it

[dzwm87]

A 5% to 10% drop in retail sales may look small on paper but will be meaningful on profits especially given operating leverage. Based on what is happening in HK and its northbound trend, retail tenants will obviously be hit first while landlord still have some short-term rental stickiness as they turnover their tenants. Somehow, there are always a few 'fresh meat' willing to take on the high rental market. Market narrative will of course shift to rental reversion outlook and probably some de-rating (i.e. headline DPU yield will look 'attractive')

[specuvestor]

Following the discussion here on RTS to post this on SSG outlook (not results) instead of SSG thread:

July 31 (The Straits Times) - Sheng Siong may review its prices and product range to retain shoppers ahead of the opening of the cross-border rail link with Johor Bahru in January 2027, which could intensify competition in Singapore’s grocery sector.

“The retail grocery industry remains competitive, and with the Johor Bahru-Singapore Rapid Transit System (RTS) Link set to open in 2027, we stand ready to adapt our pricing, promotions and product mix as necessary to remain competitive,” Sheng Siong chief executive Lim Hock Chee said on July 29.

The RTS Link may intensify price competition, particularly for selected packaged groceries and household products, Sheng Siong said as it announced its financial results for the first half of 2026, filed with the local exchange after markets closed.

It said the actual impact on the supermarket chain will depend on factors such as fares, travel time, exchange rates, relative pricing, and consumer behaviour after operations commence.

Singaporeans are projected to spend $1.05 billion more across the Causeway once the rail link opens, according to a joint study released on July 16 by the Singapore Business Federation, the Restaurant Association of Singapore and the Singapore Retailers Association.

The study also projected a 51 per cent annual increase in Singapore consumers crossing over to Johor Bahru in 2027, with groceries, pharmaceuticals, dining and beauty currently topping the list of categories Singaporeans spend on.

The impact is for sure; it’s how significant:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapor...072026_cna

Hi CY09 if wanna set up a hub then probably should plan routes properly not just cluster together and hope for the best. Let’s see how it goes maybe there’s some roads I yet to see

Bukit Chagar was chosen for two key strategic reasons. First, it has excellent road connectivity, allowing it to function as a park-and-ride hub, where Malaysian commuters can drive or ride to Bukit Chagar, park their vehicles, and then take the RTS into Singapore for work. This reduces the number of private vehicles crossing the Causeway and helps ease border congestion. Second less obvious but equally strategic reason is its proximity to Malaysia's ETS (Electric Train Service) network, the Malaysia Federal government hopes to take a chunk of the Changi-KL flight route away from SIA's stronghold

[weijian]

I found this to be a very well thought-out and comprehensive write-up by blogger Kevin (who visits JB off and on) on how the RTS could impact FCT, covering many different aspects:

Frasers Centrepoint Trust: The RTS Fear And Why I’m Still Buying (2026)

hi swakoo,

It is generally robust except that it used the wrong data for study for its "FCT’s Portfolio Strength Beyond the North" discussion.

Rather than "projected net spending outflow", author should be looking at "projected outbound spending" instead. This metric is available at pg41 in the detailed slides I posted earlier. The reason for not using net spending is because the east and central region has been distorted by inbound tourism spending (JB folks who take flights at Changi Airport/shop at Jewel, buying luxury products downtown and trying their luck at the IRs)

Author says FCT is not exposed to the West (with largest net spending) but the West has a lot of malls - Jurong Point, JEM and Westgate to name the biggest ones before we talk about the smaller ones like Clementi Mall, West Mall, Lot One, IMM....As for the North, we could argue that Northpoint City and Causeway Point are going to absorb the bulk of North's reported outflow, isn't it?

So, I wouldn't dwell too much into it because these figures (even projected outbound spending) is not normalized by population or the mall count in the region. Therefore, making more specific conclusions off such data without context, is probably not very wise.