Frasers CentrePoint Trust

[swakoo]

It is generally robust except that it used the wrong data for study for its "FCT’s Portfolio Strength Beyond the North" discussion.
.
.
.
So, I wouldn't dwell too much into it because these figures (even projected outbound spending) is not normalized by population or the mall count in the region. Therefore, making more specific conclusions off such data without context, is probably not very wise.

Hi weijian, thanks for your thoughts on this. Admittedly, I focused mostly on the macro and qualitative parts of the blog. Not so much on the quantitative, which may just be as well, given the futility you pointed out.

[weijian]

Following the discussion here on RTS to post this on SSG outlook (not results) instead of SSG thread:
July 31 (The Straits Times) - Sheng Siong may review its prices and product range to retain shoppers ahead of the opening of the cross-border rail link with Johor Bahru in January 2027, which could intensify competition in Singapore’s grocery sector.
“The retail grocery industry remains competitive, and with the Johor Bahru-Singapore Rapid Transit System (RTS) Link set to open in 2027, we stand ready to adapt our pricing, promotions and product mix as necessary to remain competitive,” Sheng Siong chief executive Lim Hock Chee said on July 29.
The RTS Link may intensify price competition, particularly for selected packaged groceries and household products, Sheng Siong said as it announced its financial results for the first half of 2026, filed with the local exchange after markets closed.
It said the actual impact on the supermarket chain will depend on factors such as fares, travel time, exchange rates, relative pricing, and consumer behaviour after operations commence.
Singaporeans are projected to spend $1.05 billion more across the Causeway once the rail link opens, according to a joint study released on July 16 by the Singapore Business Federation, the Restaurant Association of Singapore and the Singapore Retailers Association.
The study also projected a 51 per cent annual increase in Singapore consumers crossing over to Johor Bahru in 2027, with groceries, pharmaceuticals, dining and beauty currently topping the list of categories Singaporeans spend on.

Below are some interesting snippets from DFI Retail Group's earnings report with regards to Wellcome (HK Grocery) in italics: 

FY25 results: Investment in reduced pricing through strategic direct sourcing of core basket items, particularly in fresh, has resulted in a 2% growth in volume driven by higher footfall and increased items per basket. Direct sourcing allowed us to reduce prices while protecting gross profit, resulting in a 30-basis point gross margin improvement. These efforts further supported the narrowing basket price gap compared to the Greater Bay Area to a currently low single-digit price difference

1H26 results: As of June 2026, Wellcome’s “Everyday Value” range has expanded to nearly 500 items, offering savings of up to 40%, bringing its basket price down from a premium to a discount relative to the Greater Bay Area.

---------------

IMHO, our anecdotal experiences with regards to the cross-order and retail behavior are generally relatively weak when it is used for projection onto a larger population. From the study, we can see that leakage is real and accelerating in terms of wallet share for a couple of categories. And VB dzwm87 has rightly pointed out that single percentage point changes in topline amplify itself as it moves down the P/L statement because a lot of costs like staff/rental/financing are not so flexible.

Yet on the other hand, everyone has plenty of time to respond. The snippets from DFI Retail's FY25/1H26 suggests that a basket of "everyday goods" sold in a more expensive geography doesn't necessarily has to be more expensive than the cheaper geography. Anecdotally, I remember that Sheng Siong outlets near to the Causeway would always stock itself up with different assortment of berries/fruits (which are conveniently located right at the entrance) because these berries are either non-existent or more expensive in Msia.

As for retail malls, it is quite obvious to these landlords which of its tenants are going to be hit really hard because latter have already been hit hard post covid. The highest caliber Mall Mgt will evolve and insulate their managed properties by focusing on niche offerings via adjusting the tenancy mix and attract the right audience - lunch crowds, foreigners who find it stranger/harder to cross the causeway etc. Although this doesn't mean that they wouldn't be hit financially during the interim period. In terms of the highest caliber Mall Mgt, I think Capitaland and Frasers are probably among them. Capitaland is managing the retail aspects for 2 upcoming malls just ~5-10mins away from the RTS and so will be interesting to see how it may eventually becoming complimentary. In addition, Capitaland manages over 20malls in China and hopefully they have plenty of experience to bring to the Spore retail scene who is on crisp of another disruption.

[swakoo]

This interesting video suggests that and shows how Bukit Chagar could become a chokepoint after RTS opens.

Why the RTS Link Could Become Johor Bahru's Worst Fear

[specuvestor]

swakoo's video seems to be talking more about the ART and with like 10 sec on what I mentioned below Would be good if mention more about the routes out of Bukit Chagar

Let's see how it goes but I probably will only try RTS after June 2027 school holidays for them to iron out issues... too old to be adventurous or guinea pig

And agree Bukit Chagar station placement is quite bad above Komtar and all the bus interchange and immigration which already jam up the roads there. Singapore on the other hand didn't use eg Woodlands MRT as the RTS station but extend out to Woodlands North a less congested place. This again reflects quality of management planning.

[swakoo]

swakoo's video seems to be talking more about the ART and with like 10 sec on what I mentioned below Would be good if mention more about the routes out of Bukit Chagar

Hi specuvestor, think the issues you refer to are interconnected . Imagine if the e-ART is only available 2031 or later. After RTS starts operation, tons of people will be arriving at Bukit Chagar continuously. Without e-ART to disperse many of them, there is only the existing road network to rely on for all of them. Which could magnify the road congestion already seen now even before RTS.

Let's see how it goes but I probably will only try RTS after June 2027 school holidays for them to iron out issues... too old to be adventurous or guinea pig

The one issue of road connectivity depends on road infrastructure and think there is a limit to how fast such infrastructure can be improved as well as the physical feasibility (underground road tunnels or overhead viaducts?).

[CY09]

A common assumption is that the RTS Link will significantly reduce the number of daily Johor Bahru (JB) workers passing through Woodlands Checkpoint. However, there are strong arguments that this large-scale displacement may not materialise.

The primary reason is affordability. Most daily JB commuters are highly price-sensitive. Today, they can cross the border by bus or motorcycle via Woodlands Checkpoint for around S$2 per journey. In contrast, the RTS fare is expected to be substantially higher.

The average Malaysian commuting to Singapore earns approximately S$1,200–S$1,800 per month after Singapore's 15% income tax on foreign workers. If the RTS increases their monthly transport expenditure by around S$100, many are unlikely to switch unless Singapore employers are willing to offset the additional cost through higher wages—equivalent to roughly a 10% salary increase for lower-income workers. Given current labour market dynamics, this appears unlikely.

As a result, the objective of shifting a significant proportion of daily JB workers from Woodlands Checkpoint to the RTS may prove difficult to achieve. Consequently, integrating systems such as e-ART with the RTS should not be viewed as a priority solely for serving the daily cross-border workforce and is a moot topic.

RTS is more likely to attract Singaporeans and higher-income travellers who place greater value on convenience and time savings than on transport cost. This positioning is also reflected in the surrounding developments. New retail projects near Bukit Chagar and other lifestyle-oriented malls, are targeting a different customer demographics with more upscale retail, dining, and family entertainment offerings rather than the traditional daily commuter market. In fact the JB malls are presenting themselves not just as a discount destination for Singaporean shoppers, but also as a day trip, with each mall having a unique tenant mix to create an unique identity (something that Singapore malls are now trying to transform to match). These malls are dotted around the Bukit Chagar area exactly to replicate a Suntec/City Hall district without the need of a ART to move Singaporeans around. Think of it as the bukit chagar being a City hall MRT station allowing Singaporeans to walk around to a Suntec city or Raffles city or Funan or Marina Square

Beyond cross-border commuting, the RTS is also expected to function as a transport hub connecting Singapore to Malaysia's intercity rail network. This would provide travellers with a convenient and cost-effective gateway to destinations such as Kuala Lumpur, where rail fares can be approximately 50–60% lower than airfares, albeit with a longer journey time.

[swakoo]

Let's try to examine the physics of commuter flows between Woodlands and JB, with upcoming start of RTS, and the potential implications. By looking at each component.

AUTONOMOUS RAPID TRANSIT (ART)

Frist the ART - this is an excellent CNA article, from last year, explaining ART.
From LRT to ART: Johor switches gear to autonomous rapid transit system to ease congestion, spur development

In essence, the ART proposed is a multi-tiered one, meaning at congested areas like Bukit Chagar, elevated structures will be built for the carriages to run on, alleviating the congested traffic flow at ground level.

WHAT IS A MULTI-TIERED ART SYSTEM?

Transport experts CNA spoke to said that the ART system conventionally is an autonomous train-bus hybrid network running on roads. The carriages, which run on rubber wheels, use sensors to allow the vehicle to automatically follow a route defined by a virtual track.

Transport experts added that the multi-tiered system mentioned by Mr Onn Hafiz refers to a hybrid network. Some parts of the system, where traffic is less crowded, will run on the ground while other parts will run on elevated structures like viaducts and bridges.

Assoc Prof Nor Aziati said: “This separation from ground traffic allows for faster speeds and avoids interference with cars and pedestrians."

“Elevated ART is more efficient for high-density areas with frequent ridership such as Johor Bahru,” Assoc Prof Nor Aziati added, while explaining that for lower-density areas such as Kulai and Nusajaya, the ART network may run on the roads.

Public Transport Users Association president Ajit Johl told CNA that the multi-tiered aspect is key to the success of the implementation of the ART due to the congestion during peak hours in southern Johor.

THE CONDUITS AND THE COMMUTERS

Cars, buses, trucks and motorbikes can only flow via the Causeway while the train runs on the RTS track. Daily JB workers and all other commuters can choose which conduit they want to use. (Walking on Causeway is no longer legally allowed by the JB side.) The numbers of daily JB workers and existing commuters will clearly be significantly boosted by additional commuters due to the convenience of the RTS.

THE LANDING POINTS

On the Sg side, these are the Woodlands Checkpoint and Woodlands North MRT station - locations that are well separated. As specuvestor alluded to, due to wisdom of the transport authorities.

On the JB side, the Causeway lands at CIQ and the RTS lands at Bukit Chagar station. CIQ and Bukit Chagar station are side by side.

THE POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS

After the RTS starts operation, Woodlands North MRT probably gets a lot busier but OK as it plugs into the MRT network. Woodlands Checkpoint probably as usual and depends on degree of commuter diversion to RTS.

On the JB side, the vicinity around the side-by-side CIQ and Bukit Chagar station will see a lot of people transiting via motorbikes, cars, buses, RTS train, etc. Regardless of whether they flow through the Causeway or the RTS. Does not matter whether they use motorbikes, drive, get picked up or dropped off, take taxi or Grab, take bus or use the multi-storey parking facility. 

The road network will likely become significantly more congested with vehicles, without ART, due to sheer increase in volume of vehicles to transport the significant increase in number of commuters arising from the addition of the RTS conduit.

Only JB road network relief is those walking to their nearby apartments, offices or malls or train station to KL - these will not strain the road network. Though without additional ART dispersal, this foot traffic can also add significantly to the human congestion within the buildings and along the walkways.

So probably a "Cambrian explosion" at JB road network level without the ART (with it's additional elevated structures to alleviate and improve traffic flows). In other words, the potential making of a chokepoint - JB's version of the SoH.