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02-07-2025, 09:57 AM
(This post was last modified: 02-07-2025, 09:58 AM by weijian.)
(02-07-2025, 05:02 AM)Shrivathsa Wrote: The interesting thing is the remaining assets other than ofi are worth 2.9 Billion. If Olam can sell those at that value, it will likely be a huge value unlock.
The one good thing though is that for a change they are very aggressively doing SBB, https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-an...8ac3792d0e buying back close to 18.5 million shares of the 189 million mandate.
Will probably have to hold for five years plus to see the value being unlocked as all this was being talked about pre-2020 as well and time and from the 1.92 share price then in March 2022 to now, it has been a long wait for shareholders.
Hi Shrivathsa,
Olam is like some sort of special situations (in this case, a company undergoing some restructuring) and as you have pointed out, the time period to materialize is uncertain. So as usual where there is uncertainty, it is the intelligent investor to decide whether the premiums are worth it or not.
In general, we overestimate what happens in the short run but underestimate what can be achieved in the long run. For anyone who can reasonably understand the entire Olam's business model and balance sheet, they will have the ability to jump over this "6 feet pole" I suppose.
The great thing I like about such special situations (but just for disclosure, I am not vested in Olam) is that returns if any, are not correlated to the market. IMHO, this is part of the holy grail of diversification that an intelligent investor would hope to achieve for their portfolio allocation.
I am not a certified financial advisor and so nothing of what I say should be construed as financial advice. Please consult a certified financial advisor for advice instead.
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The sale of share to SALIC to become a controlling shareholder of 80.1% seems to be in the LIMBO ? Both Olam and SALIC expected the deal to be closed by end of 4Q2025 , but all are in silence since the day of EGM on 4 July 2025. Hope some friends here can help to share their opinions on this delay of execution . Is this delay positive or negative to Olam ? Many Thanks.
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Hi Tony,
Apparently, the delay is due to a couple of jurisdictions not providing their approval.
https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-an...0324fa7aa5
Any delay will of course be negative.
Having said that, My guess is that for anyone holding Olam still, they will likely have to wait for when the board makes an announcement on the next steps in terms of how they plan to distribute the money.
One caveat is that it is likely they will use a big chunk of the sale proceeds to right-size the capital structure for ofi, which they have alluded to, in other announcements.
Disclaimer :-
I am not an investment professional.
I encourage you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that I write about, because I could be and probably am wrong.
Nothing written here is an invitation to buy or sell any particular stock.
At most, I am handing out an educated guess as to what the markets may do.
The market will always find a new way to make a fool out of me (and maybe, even you!).
Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it.
I am not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of mine will probably be followed by failures
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(05-01-2026, 01:32 PM)Shrivathsa Wrote: Hi Tony,
Apparently, the delay is due to a couple of jurisdictions not providing their approval.
https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-an...0324fa7aa5
Any delay will of course be negative.
Having said that, My guess is that for anyone holding Olam still, they will likely have to wait for when the board makes an announcement on the next steps in terms of how they plan to distribute the money.
One caveat is that it is likely they will use a big chunk of the sale proceeds to right-size the capital structure for ofi, which they have alluded to, in other announcements. Thank you for your reply . Still short of 2
approvals. Will these 2 block the deal ?
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Hi Tony,
While, the balance jurisdictions are not announced. A little bit of digging around indicates approval obtained from EU, India and COMESA (Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa) competition authorities, with no concerns raised by national competition authorities of Rwanda, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius, Eswatini, Madagascar, and Malawi as well as of course Saudi Arabia.
My guess is that it is likely that one of the balance two jurisdictions is Nigeria. Nigeria will not likely block it as their Finance Minister had commented positively about it and had alluded to it being the kind of investment that they were looking for.
As for the other jurisdiction, it must be one of the North / West African countries or maybe it is China, if it is the former, again, no idea as there is absolutely no relevant information anywhere, if it is the latter, not really a concern as they do not really have major operations in China.
Disclaimer :-
I am not an investment professional.
I encourage you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that I write about, because I could be and probably am wrong.
Nothing written here is an invitation to buy or sell any particular stock.
At most, I am handing out an educated guess as to what the markets may do.
The market will always find a new way to make a fool out of me (and maybe, even you!).
Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it.
I am not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of mine will probably be followed by failures
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(14-01-2026, 01:50 PM)Shrivathsa Wrote: Hi Tony,
While, the balance jurisdictions are not announced. A little bit of digging around indicates approval obtained from EU, India and COMESA (Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa) competition authorities, with no concerns raised by national competition authorities of Rwanda, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius, Eswatini, Madagascar, and Malawi as well as of course Saudi Arabia.
My guess is that it is likely that one of the balance two jurisdictions is Nigeria. Nigeria will not likely block it as their Finance Minister had commented positively about it and had alluded to it being the kind of investment that they were looking for.
As for the other jurisdiction, it must be one of the North / West African countries or maybe it is China, if it is the former, again, no idea as there is absolutely no relevant information anywhere, if it is the latter, not really a concern as they do not really have major operations in China. Just one or two refuse to approve, All efforts will go into the drain again like the previous IPO . Wasted few years and now might repeat the same mistake again.
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Ah well, here we go again.
Phenomenal jump in profit.
However, electing to conserve capital and not give a final divided.
"After having paid an interim dividend of 2.0 cents per share on August 29, 2025, the
Board has decided not to recommend a final dividend for the financial year ended
December 31, 2025. In view of the ongoing execution of the Updated 2025 Re
organisation Plan and pending completion of the sale of Olam Agri to SALIC, the
Board deems it prudent to conserve cash at this time to ensure operational
resilience.
• The Board remains committed to its objective of unlocking shareholder value via the
execution of the Updated 2025 Re-organisation Plan which includes the responsible
divestment and monetisation of all the Remaining Olam Group’s assets and
businesses over time and progressively distribute net proceeds to shareholders via
special dividends."
https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/27Feb2026...eID=876461
Someone in this forum once said that Olam might be a classic value trap.
A bit like 'Waiting for Godot' where the turn-around is going to happen 'tomorrow / soon / next quarter / next half year / next year '.
https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/27Feb2026...eID=876460
The only saving grace is that there is confirmation that approval obtained for all but one jurisdiction.
As one can see from the reaction, the market is not amused and significant number of investors at 6 million shares and 5 million value are heading for the exits, with the share price down 7%
Disclaimer :-
I am not an investment professional.
I encourage you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that I write about, because I could be and probably am wrong.
Nothing written here is an invitation to buy or sell any particular stock.
At most, I am handing out an educated guess as to what the markets may do.
The market will always find a new way to make a fool out of me (and maybe, even you!).
Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it.
I am not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of mine will probably be followed by failures
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Olam Group is a holding company in the final stages of a multi-year break-up. Does it deserve the discount given to the sum of parts that it's made up of? What is driving the share price at this point in time when a successful completion of a sale of Olam Agri to SALIC would bring in more money than its current market capitalisation? Retaining this piece of lucrative business is not a bad thing either.
https://www.thesquirrelsdrey.com/post/ol...or-harvest
Please do your own due diligence. Any reliance on my posts is at your own risk.
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SGX announcement today , looks like the deal with salic is closed already .
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They did not appoint a new CEO for the group . It looks like Olam will be winding down eventually .
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