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Your chances against a Super Mutant Suicider
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3785078207
Dr. Lena tested the probabilites of hitting a Suicider's Bomb for you..

https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3785079851
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3785078420
You chances and shot counts with - 10mm Pistol

https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3785079670
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3785078601
And with a .308 Sniper

With 100 AP - Heres your chances to hit a Sucider's BOMB

- - - - - -

Trying 7 times with a 44% chance gives you a higher overall probability of succeeding at least once.

To calculate the probability of an event occurring at least once, we calculate the probability of failing every single time and subtract it from 1 (Formula: P = 1 - (1 - p)^n).

Option 1: 44% chance with 7 attempts
- Probability of failing a single attempt: 1 - 0.44 = 0.56
- Probability of failing all 7 attempts: (0.56)^7 = 0.01727 (%1.73)
- Probability of succeeding at least once: 1 - 0.01727 = 0.98273 (~%98.27)

Option 2: 81% chance with 2 attempts
- Probability of failing a single attempt: 1 - 0.81 = 0.19
- Probability of failing both attempts: (0.19)^2 = 0.0361 (%3.61)
- Probability of succeeding at least once: 1 - 0.0361 = 0.9639 (%96.39)

Even though 81% seems higher for a single try, giving a 44% chance 7 attempts pushes your probability of at least one success to 98.27%, outperforming the two-try 81% option (%96.39).

(thanks to Gemini for calculations ;)
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Showing 1-15 of 33 comments
Zes
Aug 17 @ 4:04am 
Result: Pistol is better :)
#1
Ffabbia
Aug 17 @ 4:15am 
Risky. I'd not even consider trying with an only 44% chance - too many chances to get a nuke in the face - in those circumstances I'd simply use a crit or a manual shot through the scope.

I'll only get such a low chance to hit if the mutant's not in an optimal position, either being partially blocked by something, or facing the wrong way. Having very low perception could also be a factor - but I keep mine high, I generally like to have at least 10 Perception at all times.

Another thing is VATS absolutely sucks at dealing with small obstacles such as railings. Even if you've a 90% chance to hit, the bullet will very often glance off the railing rather than hit the enemy. In those circumstances I'd always use a crit or manual shot.

But with high perception, the right perks and a clear shot a sniper rifle is a one-shot kill every single time without fail.

I'd not dream of using a pistol unless I was deliberately going for a dedicated deep Gunslinger build, and was using something like the Western Revolver or the Deliverer.
Last edited by Ffabbia; Aug 17 @ 4:19am
#2
worm_master
Aug 17 @ 4:46am 
Melee, solves that issue... Melee is best
#3
Ffabbia
Aug 17 @ 4:50am 
Originally posted by worm_master:
Melee, solves that issue... Melee is best

No.
#4
Teckny
Aug 17 @ 5:16am 
What the
#5
Ffabbia
Aug 17 @ 5:42am 
Originally posted by Teckny:
What the

The OP crunched some numbers and concluded that with a baseline figure set at 44% chance to hit a pistol had a higher chance of hitting a Super Mutant Suicider in the right arm in VATS than a 308 rifle due to the higher number of shots.

In the same way that rolling a dice seven times is statistically more likely to land on a six than rolling it only twice.

From this he concluded that pistols were a better option. I disagree because there are numerous other variables that must come into play.
Last edited by Ffabbia; Aug 17 @ 5:43am
#6
Senor Cinco
Aug 17 @ 5:46am 
More shots allows the Mutie time to arm the Nuke. Which is usually the reason to target the arm, in the first place. So, this is good on that as well.
Last edited by Senor Cinco; Aug 17 @ 5:47am
#7
Zes
Aug 17 @ 6:31am 
Originally posted by Ffabbia:
The OP crunched some numbers and concluded that with a baseline figure set at 44% chance to hit a pistol had a higher chance of hitting a Super Mutant Suicider in the right arm in VATS than a 308 rifle due to the higher number of shots.

In the same way that rolling a dice seven times is statistically more likely to land on a six than rolling it only twice.

From this he concluded that pistols were a better option. I disagree because there are numerous other variables that must come into play.

Yeah I crunched some numbers.. heh

all variables affect the both conditions and all variables get calculated and reflected to your chances as those crunched numbers.. by the game engine.. after that point your chance to hit that body part is a dice roll, it hits if you win, you miss if you lose.

math is there, no matter what you believe.

Originally posted by Senor Cinco:
More shots allows the Mutie time to arm the Nuke. Which is usually the reason to target the arm, in the first place. So, this is good on that as well.

Nuke gets armed on contact, he wont detonate unless he gets too close, like as close as he touches you
#8
Senor Cinco
Aug 17 @ 6:44am 
Originally posted by Zes:

Originally posted by Senor Cinco:
More shots allows the Mutie time to arm the Nuke. Which is usually the reason to target the arm, in the first place. So, this is good on that as well.

Nuke gets armed on contact, he wont detonate unless he gets too close, like as close as he touches you
Indeed. He arms on aggro, hit or miss.
Point being, using a lower cal weapon will ensure this and potentially kill the group.

One-shotting him just means you still have more Muties to kill.
#9
Ffabbia
Aug 17 @ 8:03am 
all variables get calculated and reflected to your chances as those crunched numbers

Does it take into account:

- Light conditions, indoors or outdoors
- The player's chosen perk points
- The rank of those perk points.
- The player's SPECIAL stats.
- The items the player has equipped.
- Any Legendary modifiers the player has active Lucky, VATS Enhanced, Powered etc.?
- Any passive buffs or debuffs upon the player such as food, chems, addictions, diseases etc. magazines, Bobbleheads etc.?
- The player's chosen difficulty level.
- In Survival mode the player's current survival metrics: Hunger, thirst, tiredness?
- The kind of terrain and position the Suicider is fought upon: slope, flat ground, high elevation, low elevation etc.?
- The active status of the Suicider in relation to the player's stealth metrics. Hidden, Caution or Danger?


If every single one of these variables was taken into account then I'd call that pretty impressive.

Also blowing up his right arm will cause him to explode irrespective of his distance from you, or whether or not he has actively 'armed' the nuke or actively hunting you. I've done it literally hundreds of times.
Last edited by Ffabbia; Aug 17 @ 8:06am
#10
Heimdall313
Aug 17 @ 8:11am 
You guys wanna know what stops Suiciders?
Caltrops.
Recklessly toss them in a panic if you hear the beep. They will stagger mutant hounds, dogs, Suiciders, Ghouls, Scorpions.

Caltrops will stagger them, without blowing the nuke. Don't shoot the arm, you just 0HP yourself. Shoot the legs. Bear Traps are stupidly heavy without mods, but work even better, stagger + cripple legs means they won't catch you. You also get a free Mini Nuke out of it.

Caltrops cost 5 steel at a chem bench and no perks needed, 0.5 weight each, I carry about 6 at all times.
#11
Zes
Aug 17 @ 8:29am 
Originally posted by Ffabbia:
all variables get calculated and reflected to your chances as those crunched numbers

Does it take into account:

- Light conditions, indoors or outdoors
- The player's chosen perk points
- The rank of those perk points.
- The player's SPECIAL stats.
- The items the player has equipped.
- Any Legendary modifiers the player has active Lucky, VATS Enhanced, Powered etc.?
- Any passive buffs or debuffs upon the player such as food, chems, addictions, diseases etc. magazines, Bobbleheads etc.?
- The player's chosen difficulty level.
- In Survival mode the player's current survival metrics: Hunger, thirst, tiredness?
- The kind of terrain and position the Suicider is fought upon: slope, flat ground, high elevation, low elevation etc.?
- The active status of the Suicider in relation to the player's stealth metrics. Hidden, Caution or Danger?


If every single one of these variables was taken into account then I'd call that pretty impressive.

Also blowing up his right arm will cause him to explode irrespective of his distance from you, or whether or not he has actively 'armed' the nuke or actively hunting you. I've done it literally hundreds of times.

everything affecting your hit chance gets calculated BEFORE showing those percentages, that's what percentage means. your overall chance. After that calculations your hit is depending on a dice roll. you roll higher and hit, lower and miss it.

I didn't wanna take it to "I've done it hundreds of times" territory, but you did.. if it means something to you, then check our playtimes and guess how many hundreds of times i've done it as well.
#12
Ffabbia
Aug 17 @ 9:08am 
OK fine you win, I was wrong.
Last edited by Ffabbia; Aug 17 @ 9:12am
#13
Zes
Aug 17 @ 9:17am 
Originally posted by Ffabbia:
OK fine you win, I was wrong.

I wish i could've catched your message before it was changed, your initial reaction was more mature but it is ok. *sigh

Look, I always am trying to make productive conversations and trying to stay away from ego wars, it's just what your attitute got me, we could have made a completely different conversation.

I know you for sometime here, you are an okay person. Idk what caused this but i'm sorry if i made you upset. *hugs*
#14
Ffabbia
Aug 17 @ 10:05am 
Originally posted by Zes:
Originally posted by Ffabbia:
OK fine you win, I was wrong.

I wish i could've catched your message before it was changed, your initial reaction was more mature but it is ok. *sigh

Look, I always am trying to make productive conversations and trying to stay away from ego wars, it's just what your attitute got me, we could have made a completely different conversation.

I know you for sometime here, you are an okay person. Idk what caused this but i'm sorry if i made you upset. *hugs*

My initial reaction was plain incorrect, I made a mistake and entirely forgot that VATS takes modifiers into account when calculating the hit chance. I kind of knew, but I just forgot.

So that was the reason for the edit. And I was quite genuine - I was wrong, you were right, you won. I was merely owning up to my mistake.

Wasn't upset, but I like to be accurate when I post things. and if I screw up I feel like I failed - probably an ADHD thing, which I suffer from.
#15
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Fallout 4 > General Discussions > Topic Details
Date Posted: Aug 17 @ 4:03am
Posts: 33
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